For being a 22-year-old man, it would be incorrect to say Trey Lance has the benefit of time. Lance has had nothing but time. Far too much of it, in fact. He’s an NFL sophomore who entered the season with 389 official pass attempts since high school. That is not normal. It is definitely not recommended. Lance had had enough to think. It was time to play.
Only fate continued to get in the way, I guess not really a surprise for a quarterback who lost his final college season to a once-in-a-century coronavirus pandemic. In Week 1, the interruption was funny enough at least. A torrential rainstorm that rendered real evaluation inadvisable. In Week 2, no one was laughing. The rain gave way to a broken ankle, and judgment that was merely not advised following the opener was now impossible.
Lance must sit and wait … again. The 49ers must sit and wait … again. What had been stasis is now verging on paralysis. Decision time will seemingly never come for a franchise that thought it had made one when it traded up to select Lance at No. 3 overall in 2021. Third-year breakouts are rare for former first-round quarterbacks. Former first-round quarterbacks who will have played just 263 snaps at the NFL level? Kyle Shanahan is a football genius, but he’s not a magician. Unless there’s a Josh Allen season hiding somewhere in the deep recesses of Lance’s inexperience, his career is verging on lost. And yet, one only needs to re-watch the 2021-22 NFC Championship Game to find why Lance will get another chance. Jimmy Garoppolo‘s floor wasn’t enough even with an elite defense and running game. Yet to be disproven, Lance’s theoretical ceiling will get one last shot.
As for the 49ers’ present, it is unquestionably better. Limited though he is, Garoppolo will be a temporary upgrade as the triggerman for the elite pass-catching trio of Deebo Samuel, George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk. With Elijah Mitchell already on injured reserve, pass attempts should be more plentiful than they were for most of 2021. There will be enough touches to go around to support Samuel, Aiyuk, and Kittle if he ever gets healthy. It is the rare quarterback injury that probably enhances a team’s Super Bowl odds, if not their long-term outlook. That’s strange. So is everything else about Lance’s NFL career.
Five Week 2 Storylines
The Dolphins demonstrate the full power of their battle station. Week 1 was about survival vs. Bill Belichick. Week 2 was something much more. Lacking the positive game script they earned for the opener, the Dolphins were forced to cut it loose, and the result was 469 Tua Tagovailoa passing yards and six touchdowns as they stormed back from a 28-7 deficit on the road. Rather than going either/or with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, Tua and coach Mike McDaniel chose both, finding Hill for 11/190/2 and Waddle for 11/171/2. Deep threat Hill’s scores measured 48 and 60 yards as underneath man Waddle managed six- and seven-yard TD grabs. Waddle’s longest reception did almost match Hill at 59 yards. When the dust settled, Hill and Waddle became the first receiver duo since at least 1950 to each clear 170 yards and two scores in the same game. Week 1 established the floors. Week 2 set the ceilings. The in-between would be enough for weekly top-15 valuations for both. The Bills are yet another tough challenge for Week 3 but present an opportunity for play and pass volume galore.
James Conner suffers ankle injury in Las Vegas. With the Cardinals trailing 20-0 in the third quarter, Conner was forced to the sideline. What should have been a game-killing development for an offense that had comprehensively no-showed to that point was instead just a speed bump in one of the wilder comebacks we’ll probably see all year. Although Conner’s loss didn’t dampen that eventual victory, it’s a concern for a player with a long history of ankle issues. It also leaves behind a mess for fantasy managers, as seeming No. 2 Eno Benjamin found himself in a 50-50 committee with left-for-dead Darrel Williams, one where Williams seemed to be the preferred option in short-yardage/goal-line situations after he converted a one-yard rush for a score. Both players will be worth bidding on if Conner seems likely to miss Week 3, but Williams’ better effort against the Raiders breaks the tie.
Chris Olave commands 13 targets vs. Bucs. Jameis Winston likes to throw deep. Olave does damage deep. Further evidence this might be a successful pairing? Olave commanding an absurd, league-leading 334 air yards vs. the Bucs. Only three other players have cleared 300 air yards in a game since 2016. The problem, of course, is that they were turned into just 80 actual yards vs. Tampa’s stingy defense, but the Saints’ offensive shape is becoming clear. Michael Thomas as the primary read over the middle. Olave lifts the lid deep. Jarvis Landry soaks up targets whenever and wherever needed. Winston is volatile. Rookie wideouts are volatile. There will be plenty of valleys with Olave’s potential peaks. But Week 2 proved the spiked weeks are coming. Week 3 against the Panthers could be a prime possibility. The Panthers’ elite pass defense numbers are inflated by matchups with Daniel Jones and Jacoby Brissett.
Garrett Wilson blows by Elijah Moore and Corey Davis in comeback win. 8/102/2 on 14 targets in your second career appearance? That will play. The craziest part, as Patrick Kerrane points out, is that Wilson was still No. 3 in Jets receiver snaps behind Elijah Moore and Corey Davis. It’s just that Wilson ran a route on 75 percent of Joe Flacco‘s dropbacks. Essentially, he was in the game when the Jets wanted to pass, getting a breather when they wanted to run. As insane as Wilson’s usage was, there is still room for it to grow. Wilson is forcing his way into the WR3 mix and could soon challenge Moore as the highest-ranked Jets wideout. Complicating matters is that late-career gunslinger Joe Flacco will soon give way to Zach Wilson and his many passing deficiencies.
Amon-Ra St. Brown looks more and more inevitable for the Lions. ARSB has caught at least eight balls on 10-plus targets in eight straight games. As JJ Zachariason points out, he hasn’t seen a target share below 31 percent since last Week 12. That is Davante Adams-level usage. Couple that with an improved, more aggressive Lions offense and you might have a burgeoning WR1 on your hands. That is the valuation ARSB demands for a Week 3 contest with the Vikings that figures to be high-scoring.
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Five More Week 2 Storylines
Russell Wilson has a second shaky start as Broncos quarterback. It was yet another one-score game for Russ in his new uniform, this one with a 45.2 completion percentage. Wilson lost Week 1 hero Jerry Jeudy early to a shoulder injury, but that does not explain some of the broad-side-of-a-barn throws he was missing. Nor is it sufficient explanation for clock-management issues that grew so severe the home Broncos crowd began counting down for the offense. That, of course, could be overmatched new coach Nathaniel Hackett‘s fault. Hackett’s seeming lack of preparedness for the biggest gig of his life is a valid Wilson excuse, but it’s also an alibi that won’t be of much use against the 49ers’ elite defense in Week 3. Not the same player since the second half of the 2020 season, Wilson should probably be placed on QB1 probation for the time being, especially if Jeudy is forced to miss time.
Joe Burrow gets hammered again behind remade offensive line as Bengals fall to 0-2. The Bengals signed three new offensive linemen. So far the result has been the fifth most sacks through the first two games of the season for an individual quarterback since 1970. Burrow is on pace to go down 111 times, which would break the NFL record by 35. That won’t happen … we think, but it is going to require adjustments on everybody’s behalf. We know sacks can frequently be a quarterback stat, but Cincy’s line was truly just getting caved in vs. the Cowboys. It also seemed frequently confused, which is a coaching issue. For his part, Burrow has to get rid of the ball faster even though he has been top half in the league in that metric over the past two years. The good news is, after two weeks of T.J. Watt and Micah Parsons, the Jets are on tap to offer a Week 3 respite.
Drake London continues to heat up as Kyle Pitts remains cold. London has gone from barely practicing over the summer to checking in 11th in receiving through two games. He has 19 targets, 12 of which came against a defense led by Jalen Ramsey. The young man is getting open, and Marcus Mariota is finding him. After back-to-back weeks vs. Marshon Lattimore and Ramsey, London now gets a Seahawks secondary lacking individual stoppers and allowing 7.9 yards per attempt. Hopefully that translates to more production for Pitts, as well, who is coming off back-to-back 2/19 efforts to begin what was supposed to be a generational sophomore year. If Arthur Smith‘s ludicrously-defensive comments are any indication, Pitts’ squeaky wheel will be applied some grease in Week 3.
Curtis Samuel continues to heat up. Is Samuel the Commanders’ No. 1 receiver? He has led in target share each of the first two games, and has eight more looks than Terry McLaurin and 10 more than Jahan Dotson. He is a perfect intermediate option for a quarterback in Carson Wentz who has developed a reputation for hesitating to target his wideouts. Never healthy in 2021, and playing with Taylor Heinicke when he was, Samuel deserves a WR3 looksee. Just know that the Commanders are not going to leave McLaurin and Dotson to die on the vine. This situation could get more complicated before it clarifies.
Cam Akers bounces back to out-touch Darrell Henderson. Whatever point Sean McVay was trying to make in Week 1, he made it. The Rams’ backfield was back to an even committee against the Falcons, with Akers and Henderson playing to a snaps standstill. Akers did have a 17-10 touch advantage, though Henderson remained more productive as Akers once again averaged fewer than three yards per carry. Henderson scored a touchdown. Neither back showed enough to earn an RB2 rank for Week 3 against the Cardinals, but Henderson is the only one to put anything good on tape so far this season. You can’t cut Akers. You also can’t start him. FLEX Henderson for what promises to be a weird game with the Cardinals.
Questions
1. Did Kliff Kingsbury realize mid-game in Vegas that he could not handle getting fired and becoming Nick Saban‘s 2023 offensive coordinator?
2. Why did Christian Kirk sign for so little money?
3. Are the Bears trying to put Darnell Mooney on the Darius Slayton career path?
Early Waivers Look (Players rostered in less than 50 percent of Yahoo leagues)
QB: Jameis Winston (@CAR), Jared Goff (@MIN), Ryan Tannehill (vs. LV), Jimmy Garoppolo (@DEN), Joe Flacco (vs. CIN)
RB: Raheem Mostert, Darrel Williams, Eno Benjamin, Khalil Herbert, J.D. McKissic, Kenneth Gainwell, Tyrion Davis-Price, Jerick McKinnon, Tyler Allgeier
WR: Jahan Dotson, Garrett Wilson, Treylon Burks, Michael Gallup, Jakobi Meyers, Russell Gage, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Nico Collins, Sammy Watkins, Sterling Shepard
TE: Evan Engram, Logan Thomas, Hayden Hurst, Tyler Conklin, Mike Gesicki, Irv Smith, Robert Tonyan
DEF: Cowboys (@NYG), Chiefs (@IND), Texans (@CHI), Seahawks (vs. ATL), Eagles (@WAS), Bears (vs. HOU), Jaguars (@LAC, if Justin Herbert sits)
Stats of the Week
0.0. Cole Kmet‘s stats across the board. Playing tough defense through the first two weeks, the Texans are not going to make things any easier on Justin Fields and his tight end.
22/27. James Robinson‘s carry/yardage total when you remove his 37-yard touchdown. As inspiring as Robinson’s return has been, he might be having some Cam Akers issues of his own.
Two. The number of snaps Kenny Golladay played in Week 2 before reportedly cleaning out his locker and splitting from MetLife Stadium. It’s hard to see who could revive this man’s career at this point, or who would even want to.
Lamar Jackson became the first player in NFL history to both pass and run for touchdowns of 75-plus yards in the same game.
Matthew Stafford has 18 interceptions over his past 11 regular season starts.
Via the Elias Sports Bureau: “Geno Smith‘s 80 percent completion rate Sunday is the highest (minimum of pass 30 attempts) in a game in which a quarterback’s team did not score an offensive point since statistics were first tracked for individual players in 1932.”
Awards Section
Week 2 Fantasy All-Pro Team: QB Lamar Jackson, QB Tua Tagovailoa, RB Nick Chubb, RB Aaron Jones, WR Tyreek Hill, WR Jaylen Waddle, WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, TE Mark Andrews
Tweet of the Week, from Marcas Grant: Sammy Watkins going off-brand and showing up big in Week 2.
Madden Play of the Week: Kyler Murray taking 20.8 seconds to eventually convert a two-point conversion with his legs.
Normal Guy of the Week Award: Nathaniel Hackett, who is just a normal dude trying to figure out this coaching thing.
Secretly Not Normal Guy of the Week Award: Mike McDaniel, who presents as normal until you face him in anything competitive — whether it be FIFA, bowling, etc. — at which point he is revealed to be weirdly amazing at everything and the kind of person who has never lost a game ever.
Goof of the Week: The Colts accidentally acquiring longtime Falcons backup Matt Schaub instead of longtime Falcons starter Matt Ryan.
