With free agency mostly over, it’s time to let the takes begin to flow.
Only four wideouts delivered more than 19 PPR fantasy points per game in 2025: Puka Nacua, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Ja’Marr Chase, and Amon-Ra St. Brown. Chase was the No. 1 overall pick in most drafts. St. Brown and Nacua were solid first-round picks, though usually the later end of the first round. Smith-Njiba was priced as a WR2. You largely got what you paid for from those four.
The problem was that many, many other fantasy managers tried to get what they paid for and were denied at the bank examiner’s office. Justin Jefferson wasn’t a safe WR1. Malik Nabers, Terry McLaurin, Mike Evans and Tyreek Hill were injured. Brian Thomas Jr. spent a month alligator armsing everything he could and now the only news we read about him is trade rumors devoid of context. Ladd McConkey and CeeDee Lamb yielded ground to George Pickens and Keenan Allen. A.J. Brown took one look at Kevin Patullo‘s offense and decided to become a conscientious objector.
That is just a snapshot of what happened, of course, not a guarantee of future results. The safest play in fantasy football is the guy who stayed healthy all season, but our ability to predict who that will be is virtually nil. We are only at the “measured bets” stage of being able to figure out whether a new addition like Allen will cut down McConkey at the knees, or a new addition like Davante Adams will be just dandy for Nacua’s fantasy value.
Let’s take stock of how free agency and the offseason have changed life for everybody — or not, in some cases.
Stock Up: Luther Burden
DJ Moore wasn’t exactly the only reason that Burden was slowly eased into the lineup last year — he was banged up in camp and Olamide Zaccheaus played plenty over him as well. Burden was the one who was humming late in the season though, notching his first-career eight-catch game against the 49ers in Week 17. With Moore gone, the door is wide open for Colston Loveland and Burden to take a major step forward in a passing option that I think a lot of people are going to want a piece of in 2026.
I’m somewhat sanguine on Burden compared to some of the most optimistic scenarios. I don’t know that I think he’s more likely to earn targets than Rome Odunze, and Loveland would also scare me as a fellow middle-of-the-field threat. But it is impossible to ignore how St. Brown played with Detroit’s offense under Ben Johnson and not draw comparisons to what Burden looked like at times last year. The hype will probably get far enough over its skis for me to wind up with less Burden than I’d like. I’m probably somewhere around a top-75 pick right now, and on a few sites he’s a top-50 pick. But it’s hard to not call him a major winner of the offseason and I can absolutely see how he’d approach top-50 value, if not higher.
Crisitunity: Nico Collins
What is a crisitunity? Well, it’s a joining of the words crisis and opportunity, as popularized by Show Only Millenials Have Watched The Simpsons. And I think it’s a useful way to look at fantasy football in a lot of situations. You would never get an opportunity to buy Nico Collins this low without 2025 happening. And so ... is 2025 the beginning of a crisis? Or is it an opportunity?
The Hater’s Case:
Someone who was being drafted near the turn last year, Collins has slipped into the mid-second round vortex. I have bad news: I don’t think it’s going to get better. Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel are both good bets to take a step forward in some way. The lingering Tank Dell (knee) recovery could also cut into Collins’ target share.
And, most importantly, there’s not much here to begin with. The Texans don’t want to throw the ball. Collins had three 100-yard games all season. He has just four 100-yard games in his last 22 regular season starts. He’s a volume receiver, yes, but the upside is capped when the team clearly wants to pound the rock.
The counter-argument:
I think the world of Collins as an NFL No. 1 wideout — he’s undoubtedly one of the six or seven best wideouts in the league when he’s healthy. If you want to bet on the raw upside of someone just on talent, you’d have to think that he’s capable of putting up a real, top-5 wideout season. He’s never done it before. WR9 last year, WR12 in 2024, and WR9 again in 2023. We won’t get into the Davis Mills years.
The argument here is one of rational coaching: Let’s throw the ball to the guy who is good and let’s make it easy. The Texans didn’t get there in 2025 under new OC Nick Caley. It’s debatable that they ever will.
The verdict
Between his yearly health issues and Houston’s inability to major in passing solutions for him, it’s hard to feel like we’re heading to some sort of high-end WR1-type season in the short term for Collins. Thus, I don’t feel particularly compelled to chase him as a top-two round option at this time. If we win fantasy football by drafting the players who will wind up as the best at the end of the year, I have a hard time finding a way for Collins to get there with so many governors around him in this offense. And I don’t even say this as someone with the point of view that C.J. Stroud is cursed and needs to be thrown in the dumpster. (That’s just everyone else on the Rotoworld Staff.)
Stock Down: Courtland Sutton
This is what happens when you transition from easily your team’s No. 1 to probably a co-No. 1 with Jaylen Waddle. This is really two questions in one: How effectively will the Broncos throw, and how many of those targets will now go to Sutton?
Bo Nix did not lead the NFL in many things in 2025 — it was essentially game-winning drives and total passing attempts. I don’t think his status as a quarterback you can win with is in any real debate, but we also didn’t see a major step forward in any statistical area last year. I would be surprised if Sutton saw a debilitating target slide and think he fits handily into the WR3/WR4 tweener range, but I think it’s clearly in the range of outcomes that the Broncos come to realize that Troy Franklin‘s explosiveness is more important to the offense. They seemed to come to that conclusion last year when, from Week 7 on, Sutton saw 64 targets to Franklin’s 68.
One of those two players is due a precipitous tumble this year. And while I don’t think we should speak in certainties in fantasy football circles, Sutton is the older player and the one with higher ingrained Name Brand stock. He simply has further to fall.
Stock Up: Alec Pierce
I’m very confused here, in a way that reminds me of Christian Kirk joining the Jaguars. Pierce signed a mega-contract with the Colts, they gave away Michael Pittman to the Steelers to make it happen, removing some target competition from the equation. And ... I can still get Pierce outside of the top-50 picks pretty consistently right now? It feels like we are conjoining the fact that keeping Jones and paying Pierce could turn into bad decisions for real-life football with the idea that they’re both bad fantasy investments. I disagree! (Well, with Pierce anyway.)
The Colts are an offense I want to be invested in even if Daniel Jones is immobile. Shane Steichen is a good play caller. I think Pierce is more of a WR2 with WR1 runouts on the table. He was PPR WR28 last year with Pittman! And if Jones can’t play right away? Riley Leonard did a pretty good job feeding Pierce in Week 18, a game where Pierce had two touchdowns despite being ejected in the third quarter for making contact with an official.
I get that the lack of instant results and the idea that he’s a deep-only winner color the calculus here. But I don’t think the Colts paid Pierce $114 million to throw him four deep passes a game and send Tyler Warren into the 20-target zone. That contract is a leading indicator to me, as it was for Kirk.
Crisitunity: Ladd McConkey
The Lover’s Case:
If you listen to Chargers beat writers, they will swear up and down that McConkey and Keenan Allen run the same routes in the same area and, thus, Allen cannibalized what McConkey does best. I don’t find that hard to agree with.
But the main reason I’m interested is that I think new OC Mike McDaniel could create the Jaylen Waddle route tree for McConkey. McDaniel was a master of finding ways to get easy pre-snap separation for his star receivers in Miami. The pieces in Los Angeles are healthy and so is the offensive line. So, then, whoever is the main receiver in Los Angeles is probably going to be in a great context for fantasy football points. With Quentin Johnston remaining up-and-down and Tre’ Harris entering his second year, it’s very easy to argue that McConkey has the best resume here despite the down 2025.
The counter-argument:
66/789/6. That’s what McConkey put up in 2025 after being universally hyped as someone who could take the next step for the Chargers. It was still better than Johnston and (hidden sneaky factor) Oronde Gadsden II, but not by much. And yes, context matters here, but if I’m buying McConkey as a top-50 pick, why can I get (similar 2025 faller) Brian Thomas Jr. after pick 70?
Also, with Allen still unsigned, what are the chances the Chargers decide to ruin it all again?
The verdict
I am deep in to the Chargers bag in this segment with two Crisitunities in favor of McDaniel’s boys, but I think 2025 was a significant negative outlier for everyone involved and the talent and coaching appear to be top-notch on paper. I am buying while preparing to be hurt. Which is really the default state of buying, when you think about it.
Stock Down: Xavier Worthy
Early drafters have pushed Worthy mostly out of the top-100, an unheard of value proposition for a first-round receiver on a Patrick Mahomes offense. But I don’t think it’s the wrong move. Worthy didn’t have a 100-yard game all season, even before Rashee Rice was activated. His deep ball prowess paled in comparison to what we saw from Tyquan Thornton.
I do think there’s something to be said for Worthy clearly playing hurt. He’d pop up on the injury report with something new fairly often to miss a day. His ankle was damaged early in the season in Brazil, and even when he was back he didn’t look like he had every bit of the juice. The problem is: This is now an offense that paid for Kenneth Walker and will look to get him the ball. Rice is not getting a suspension at all to start the season. Travis Kelce still demands his share of ineffective targets. And, for that matter, the Chiefs get tied to a top-10 wideout in this draft pretty frequently and have two first-round picks.
I would never tell you that the Chiefs will become a run-first team, but I do think the scales will tilt a little this year. There are a lot of mouths to feed here. Rice simply may not be fantasy-effective unless he has an outlier touchdown season or the Chiefs are clearly one of the two best offenses in the league.
