Welcome to the Dynasty Three & Out, where each week we’ll focus on three players gaining value and three others losing dynasty value based on the latest news and performances on the field.
Note: Any dynasty ADP or dynasty trades referenced in this article can be found at dynastyleaguefootball.com
Risers:
Dede Westbrook, WR JAX
A year ago this past weekend, WR Dede Westbrook was a finalist for the Heisman Trophy. This weekend, he was leading the Jaguars in receptions as they pulled off a big win over the Seahawks. While this might be the expected path for a player with Westbrook’s credentials, his journey here was not an easy one. Following his final season of college, multiple red flags were often discussed regarding Westbrook’s past, both on the field and off. There were even brief rumors that he could go undrafted. Obviously, the Jaguars used a mid-round pick on the Oklahoma wideout and he went on to have a big pre-season, leading the league with 288 receiving yards. With this, Westbrook’s value was on the rise, until an injury landed him on the injured reserve.
Westbrook was fully recovered and back on the field in Week 11 and he quickly made an impact, despite the Jaguars run-first offense. Westbrook’s receiving yardage has increased each week over the past four games, as has his fantasy output, posting weekly finishes of WR58, WR40, WR23 and WR13, pending Monday Night Football. Westbrook’s dynasty ADP is also quickly rising. After debuting in February at 152 overall, Westbrook’s ADP tumbled to 233 when he suffered the pre-season injury, but after just a month’s worth of on-field action, he’s already being valued as a top 100 player, with a December ADP of 98.
Jimmy Garoppolo, QB SF
Although he’s been a backup for the majority of his four seasons in the NFL, he has always been a player dynasty owners were well aware of, as has been the case with many of QB Tom Brady’s understudies over the years. With the expectation of either taking over for Brady or getting dealt to a cushy spot where he’d be entrenched as the starter, dynasty owners have chased Garoppolo each off-season, only to get frustrated when the Patriots stubbornly held tight to their backup. As the season began to wind down and New England realized it was going to be no easy task to retain the soon-to-be free agent, they traded Garoppolo to the 49ers, where he could serve as the franchise quarterback for the Kyle Shanahan led 49ers.
Garoppolo entered the game late in Week 12 and threw the team’s only touchdown of the game, earning the starting nod going forward. To say Garoppolo made an instant impact would be an understatement. It needs to be acknowledged that the Niners were facing the lowly Bears and Texans, but after winning just one of their first 11 games, the team has now won two in a row. Garoppolo’s fantasy finishes have been modest, QB29 in the one possession he played in his San Francisco debut and then QB24 and QB15 over the past two weeks, but he has shown a great deal of promise and has fans and fantasy players excited to see what he can do with an improved supporting cast, which will surely be a priority for Shanahan this off-season. It’s not a surprise that Garoppolo’s December dynasty ADP of 147 is his highest ever after being stuck somewhere between 185 and 240 for the past few years. This number should continue to rise, so target Garoppolo as a dynasty target sooner, rather than later.
Adam Shaheen, TE CHI
This time, let’s dig a bit deeper. Rookie TE Adam Shaheen is quietly having a nice season for the Bears, especially since the unfortunate injury to veteran TE Zach Miller. In the past month, Shaheen has a pair of TE1 games, missed in with some complete no-shows. This is to be expected from a rookie, especially rookie tight ends, who are notoriously slow to transition to the NFL. Although we’ve been a bit spoiled by TEs Hunter Henry and Evan Engram, among others, in recent years, that does not mean we should dismiss the value of Shaheen. With the loss of Miller and an overall lack of talent at the wide receiver position, Shaheen has become a red zone target for his fellow rookie QB Mitchell Trubisky, leading the team with six targets inside the 20-yard line. Shaheen’s dynasty value, based on dynasty ADP, is still very affordable. His current ADP is just 186, which is his high mark over his short time in the league.
Fallers:
Mike Evans, WR TB
After an off-season filled with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers making moves to improve their offense, it was clear that WR mike Evans was in for some statistical regression this season. With the addition of WR DeSean Jackson and TE O.J. Howard, among others, that has been the case, but it has been even worse than we expected. Evans began the season in strong fashion, including four top ten weekly finishes in his first six games. After seven weeks of the season, Evans was the WR6, but things quickly went south. In his past six games, Evans’ weekly finishes are as follows: WR28, WR82, WR23, WR25, WR62 and WR71, pending Monday Night Football, making him the WR48 since Week Eight. Evans hasn’t registered a 100-yard receiving game since Week 12 of last season. Since that game, there have been 163 different 100-yard receiving games posted by 77 different players, including multiple running backs.
As frustrating as Evans has been for fantasy players, his dynasty ADP has essentially held steady. Evans has been a top five dynasty pick, based on ADP, since October of 2016, though that could soon change. How dynasty owners value Evans will be one of the huge storylines of the off-season. After what he has shown through his four-year career, Evans deserves to be valued as one of the top players in the game, but it is also clear he has been overvalued as a top three dynasty asset.
Sammy Watkins, WR LAR
Another high-profile wideout who has let down his team and his fantasy owners is WR Sammy Watkins. After a pre-season trade to the Rams, Watkins was the presumed top option for QB Jared Goff on a team that seemingly lacked weapons in the passing game. The reality has been that Watkins is the third option, at best, in the passing game and Goff has shown a preference for veteran WR Robert Woods and rookie WR Cooper Kupp, not to mention RB Todd Gurley’s increased role in the passing game. Watkins’ weekly performances have been even uglier than Evans. Other than a WR5 game in Week Three, Watkins has no other games inside the top 12 weekly receivers and just one finish inside the top 20 scorers. Nine times, including this week, he’s finished outside of the top 30 and he’s become heavily dependent on touchdowns to produce any fantasy points at all.
Also like Evans, dynasty players have been very slow to react to Watkins disappointing play, when it comes to ADP. Even after Watkins was slowed by injuries over the past couple of seasons in Buffalo, his ADP stayed inside the top 20 overall players, only falling out when he tumbled to 33 in November. Watkins will have to end the season on a high note, which seems rather unlikely at this point, to avoid falling outside of the top three rounds in off-season dynasty drafts.
Austin Seferian-Jenkins, TE NYJ
After a disastrous time in Tampa Bay early in his career, which ended with a DUI arrest, TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins looked to have rejuvenated his career with the Jets. Seferian-Jenkins began the season with a two-game suspension related to the previously mentioned arrest, but quickly proved to be a factor for the Jets offense upon his return in Week Three. In his first six games, ASJ was the TE17, TE19, TE9, TE4, TE14 and TE15 and considering his age and draft pedigree, was on his way to a top ten value at his position. Since then though, the Jets offense has transitioned to focus on big play WRs Robby Anderson and Jermaine Kearse, leaving Seferian-Jenkins to fend for target scraps. Over the past five games, his weekly ranks are: TE29, TE8, TE27, TE47 and TE48, pending Monday Night Football.
After routinely being valued as a top 100 dynasty asset during his peak early in his career, the bottom fell out for ASJ, who was essentially off the radar for several months. Now back, Seferian-Jenkins is already quickly closing in on his previous high ADP, currently sitting at 103 overall based on December data.
