Welcome to the Dynasty Three & Out, where each week we’ll focus on three players gaining value and three others losing dynasty value based on the latest news and performances on the field.
Note: Any dynasty ADP or dynasty trades referenced in this article can be found at dynastyleaguefootball.com
Risers:
Devin Funchess, WR CAR
When he entered the league as a member of the class of 2015, there was a mixed opinion about the outlook for Panthers WR Devin Funchess, who was listed as a tight end for the University of Michigan. As a Wolverine, Funchess had been a difference maker, but as a full time wideout, he was raw and needed much refinement to his game. It shouldn’t have come as a surprise then that the first two seasons were not considered a success as he finished WR65 and WR88, despite a massive lack of competition in Carolina. There were few signs that his third season would be different as Funchess was barely targeted in the season opener, finishing the week as WR70. Since that time though, Funchess has been the WR8 overall, including a WR2 finish in Week Four in which he logged his first career multiple touchdown game. Funchess was back among the top 12 fantasy receivers this week, pending Monday Night Football, and he finally has his doubters starting to believe.
Despite his disappointing season long production in his initial two seasons, Funchess drew some dynasty hype prior to the 2016 season and his dynasty ADP is evidence of this. He hit a high mark in August of last year, being drafted at 58 overall, but once the season started, his value began to plummet and by this past July, Funchess was being selected with the 181st pick, on average. As he continues to play well, this ADP will rise as it has moved from 181 to 128 over the past three months.
Aaron Jones, RB GB
After somewhat of a disastrous 2016 season when it comes to their backfield, it was clear the Green Bay Packers would be retooling their running back depth chart. After all, this is a team that started RBs Eddie Lacy, James Starks, and even Don Jackson before turning to WR Ty Montgomery out of desperation. That move proved to be ingenious, but there was still a huge hole to fill as the Packers parted ways with all tailbacks other than Montgomery following the season. That led to the Pack using not one, not two, but three draft picks on RBs, adding Jamaal Williams (BYU, fourth round), Aaron Jones (UTEP, fifth round) and Devante Mays (Utah State, seventh round) to provide depth and insurance behind Montgomery. For dynasty owners, a debate kicked off regarding which Packers rookie RB was the one to own, Williams or Jones. Thanks largely due to his draft pedigree, most sided with Williams and all reports out of Packers camp seemed to support this choice as he earned the backup role entering the regular season. Fast forward to Week Four against the division-rival Bears and Montgomery was forced from the game with a rib injury. Williams entered next but wasn’t long for the game after suffering a knee injury. The rookie Jones was next and in limited snaps, he impressed, rushing for 49 yards on 13 carries and scoring his first career touchdown.
Over the following week, there was much speculation about which rookie would see the bulk of the touches as Montgomery nursed his rib injury and in the end, it was clearly Jones backfield. Against the Cowboys defense, Jones totaled 134 yards and another touchdown, making him the RB3 on the week entering MNF. The discussion now centers on the makeup of the backfield once Montgomery is fully healthy, which could be as early as next week. We have no way to firmly answer that question, but my mind drifts to all of the times Montgomery was forced to the sidelines, either due to a nagging injury or poor pass-blocking, though that aspect has dramatically improved this season. This seems like a running back by committee moving forward, but regardless, Jones’ value is on the rise.
Zach Ertz, TE PHI
The dynasty tight end landscape has been decimated this season with injuries and disappointing performances mounting. That is one of the reasons Eagles TE Zach Ertz is seeing his dynasty value climb through the first five weeks of the year. The off-season moves made by the Eagles this year, specifically dealing slot WR Jordan Matthews to the Bills, opened the door for Ertz to play a bigger role and he is taking advantage. Through five weeks, Ertz leads all TEs in targets (48), receptions (32), yardage (387) and fantasy points (80.7, PPR). While this season is being treated like a breakout year for Ertz, this has been slowly building as he’s improved his annual fantasy rank each season of his career, beginning with TE23 in 2013 and moving on to TE13, TE9, TE6 and now to his current TE1 rank through five weeks.
At this point, Ertz looks like an obvious star at the position, but it wasn’t long ago that he was sitting outside of the top 100 in startup dynasty drafts. His pre-season ADP was 104 before jumping to 88 in September and now all the way to 59 in brand new October data. Ertz has breezed by former top ranked TEs like Tyler Eifert and Greg Olsen, both dealing with injuries, as well as some slow starters like Hunter Henry. As a fifth-rounder, there is little ceiling left for Ertz when it comes to dynasty value, but he is obviously a player gaining value.
Fallers:
Zay Jones, WR BUF
After seeing a huge amount of volume during his college career, the Bills made WR Zay Jones their second-round pick. It wasn’t a coincidence that Buffalo also hired Jones’ former college WR coach this off-season, offering what looked like a nice production floor for Jones, even early in his career. All of that made Jones a player that was heavily targeted in dynasty rookie drafts, routinely coming off the board late in the first round. After the Bills pulled the shocking trade sending WR Sammy Watkins to the Rams, the depth chart seemed to open up and Jones was the presumed winner.
Once it came time to step on the field though, things haven’t gone Jones way. Through five weeks, he’s caught just over 20% of his targets, averaging one reception per week and totaling 66 yards on the season. Jones dynasty ADP is reflective of that heightened expectation as it reached a peak in September of 72, but has already fallen more than two rounds down to 98 in just one month. If Jones was a personal favorite, which is not the case for me, now is an excellent time to send out some trade offers for the Bills rookie.
Martavis Bryant, WR PIT
What a road traveled for Steelers WR Martavis Bryant. In his first two seasons, Bryant flashed athleticism and upside that had dynasty owners drooling and even playing partial seasons in 2014 and 2015, he posted WR59 and WR39 fantasy finishes. This, along with some playoff heroics in 2015, pushed Bryant’s dynasty value through the roof, as he was being selected among the top 20 overall players. That all came crashing down as Bryant was levied a second suspension, this time for an entire season. As fantasy players began to speculate on his future, his value bottomed out and some expected to never see Bryant take the field again.
This off-season, the slow process of reinstatement took place and after multiple steps, Bryant received full clearance to participate in all practices and games. That was all dynasty players needed to jump back on the Bryant train and his ADP soared from a low point of 149 a year ago to 40 overall in August and September. The entire Steelers offense has performed below expectations this season though and Bryant has just one fantasy finish inside the top 50, a Week Two WR12 performance. Other than that, Bryant has logged weekly ranks of WR74, WR73, WR56 and WR40, pending MNF.
Sammy Watkins, WR LAR
After all of the head-scratching moves made by the Buffalo Bills in recent years, and especially over the past few months, dynasty owners of WR Sammy Watkins couldn’t wait for him to escape the Bills franchise and move on to another team…any other team. Those fantasy players got their wish in the pre-season when the Bills surprisingly made a pair of trades within minutes of each other, with the headliner being contract-year WR Watkins being shipped off to the Los Angeles Rams. This was actually terrible news for Watkins and his fantasy stock as the Rams were one of the few offenses, maybe the only offense in the league, that seemed to be worse off than Buffalo. Little did we all know this would be the top-scoring team through the season’s first month as QB Jared Goff and RB Todd Gurley lead a rejuvenated offense under the leadership of new HC Sean McVay. You would think a young WR considered one of the most talented in the league and the top-scoring offense would be a perfect pairing, but Watkins has been a huge flop. Outside of the huge blowup game on Thursday night football in Week Three, Watkins has averaged two receptions for 26 yards per game. In Week Five, Watkins failed to even record a reception.
Over the past two years, Watkins has been a regular in the top 15 of our dynasty ADP, but that surprise trade did not sit well with fantasy players. In one month, his ADP fell from 15 to 22. With such putrid production, Watkins will surely fall again in our next update. Watkins is another player I would consider buying low on, but only if I’m prepared to stick him on my bench for much of the remainder of the 2017 season.
