Welcome to the first edition of the 2015 Dynasty Waiver Wired. I’ll begin with an introduction. I’m Ryan McDowell, a Staff Writer at DynastyLeagueFootball.com and I’ll be contributing to Rotoworld again this season. My Twitter contact information, as well as my email address, is listed below. Feel free to contact me anytime. Now, onto some dynasty football!
In this weekly series, I will highlight players that are speculative adds in deeper dynasty leagues, since the majority of players often covered in typical waiver wire columns have long been rostered.
No matter how deep your league is or how large the rosters, you should always keep a watch list of players you are considering adding, should the opportunity present itself. The group of names below will help you form that list.
As I reflected back on my work from a year ago, some of the names mentioned in that first waiver wire piece included CJ Anderson, Tre Mason, John Brown and Jarvis Landry. There are players on the waiver wire that can help you win your league. You can’t ignore this part of the game.
Typically, all players mentioned will be owned in less than 20 percent of Yahoo fantasy leagues, but since we’ve yet to see any of these players suit up in a game that counts this season, I’m going to focus on players that are owned is less than ten percent of Yahoo leagues.
I will note that the data presented is based on all Yahoo leagues, not just those designated as keeper or dynasty.
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Quarterbacks
1. Tyrod Taylor, BUF (8%)
2. Johnny Manziel, CLE (2%)
3. Kirk Cousins, WAS (6%)
o One of the quarterback battles dynasty owners have been focusing on this offseason is in Buffalo. This has more to do with Sammy Watkins and LeSean McCoy and their fantasy aspirations than it does with those that were actually involved in the competition. Nonetheless, veteran Tyrod Taylor won the battle so handily that the team felt comfortable enough to release Matt Cassel. Taylor’s rushing ability should have your attention if you’re a quarterback streamer or DFS player. That potential rushing yardage also offers him some upside in dynasty leagues and makes Taylor someone to take a look at over the first couple of weeks.
o Don’t roll your eyes at the mention of Johnny Manziel’s name. Few quarterbacks on the waiver wire have QB1 (top 12) upside and Manziel is one. He had a solid preseason and there was some talk the Browns would give him a shot over the vanilla Josh McCown. Instead, McCown claimed the job, but it’s fair to expect Manziel to get his chance sometime this season. If your dynasty roster is deep enough, Manziel deserves a speculative add.
o We’ve come to expect drama and conspiracy theories out of our nation’s capital, but this time it was the Redskins, not the White House, in the news. After former first round pick Robert Griffin III suffered a concussion, there was a series of conflicting reports about how serious the injury was and if RG3 had actually been cleared to return to the field. Amid that confusion, head coach Jay Gruden announced Griffin would not play this season and named Kirk Cousins the team’s starter. We’ve seen Cousins before and he even lost his starting job a year ago. There’s little short-term upside with Cousins and even less long-term opportunity. It’s a near certainty the Skins will be quarterback shopping in round one of the 2016 NFL Draft. In the meantime, Cousins is a decent option in a 2QB or super-flex league, but that’s about it.
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Running Backs
1. Zach Zenner, DET (1%)
2. James Starks, GB (5%)
3. http://www.nbcsports.com/edge/player/NFL/7454/Josh-RobinsonJosh Robinson, IND (1%)
4. Karlos Williams, BUF (1%)
5. Buck Allen, BAL (1%)
6. Thomas Rawls, SEA (0%)
7. Cameron Artis-Payne, CAR (5%)
8. Terrance West, TEN (6%)
9. Ahmad Bradshaw, FA (6%)
o Zach Zenner, the undrafted rookie back out of South Dakota State, earned a spot on the Lions’ final roster and was a top three back in the preseason, according to Pro Football Focus. Of course, Zenner will battle fellow rookie Ameer Abdullah and veteran Joique Bell for touches in the Lions’ backfield, but he’s already shown he won’t back down. Zenner might be tough to use in fantasy matchups early on consider his touches will be tough to project, but Bell has been dealing with an injury all offseason, so Zenner’s chance may come sooner than we expect.
o In recent weeks, I’ve been concentrating on adding some veterans who can help me win some games in 2015, even if they have limited long-term value. One of my most targeted players has been Packers’ backup running back James Starks. The injury history of starter Eddie Lacy is well-known and even if Lacy is a full go, the Packers never hesitate to give Starks meaningful touches. If Lacy were to suffer an injury, you have to be prepared, and Starks becomes a weekly top ten option at the position.
o The Colts brought in Frank Gore this offseason and they will turn to him often, but we know and they know Gore can’t last a full season with heavy weekly touches. After they jettisoned bust Trent Richardson, it was assumed last year’s leading rusher Dan Herron would spell Gore, but he suffered a sprained AC joint and the team waived him. That leaves rookie http://www.nbcsports.com/edge/player/NFL/7454/Josh-RobinsonJosh Robinson, the former Mississippi State bowling ball of a back, as the next man in line. Gore has proven to be very durable over the past few seasons, but it’s difficult to rely on a 32-year-old back over the course of a full season. This time next year, we could be looking at Robinson as the Colts’ starting back.
o Karlos Williams is an interesting case. He was a late round draft pick on a team that was seemingly stacked at the position. After all, they’d just acquired star LeSean McCoy and still had solid veteran Fred Jackson and a player they traded for a year ago, Bryce Brown. Would there be a place for Williams, the former Florida State safety? After a solid performance early in the preseason, it appeared the answer to that question would be a firm no. Williams missed the past three weeks of camp with a mystery illness that no one seems interested in discussing. Many thought that would spell the end of his chances of making the team. Instead, the team dumped the veteran Jackson, who later signed with Seattle and reportedly attempted to trade Brown. With almost no real football action over the past few weeks, Williams is now second on the depth chart, has declared himself ready for Week One and may even get some significant carries with McCoy’s status up in the air.
o The Ravens’ Buck Allen is yet another rookie backup who could see some early touches for his team, though this is not quite by design. Allen struggled this preseason and the Ravens were rumored to be interested in Fred Jackson after his release by the Bills. Instead, they have yet to add a veteran and Allen is in line to be the primary backup to Justin Forsett in Week One. The other back of note in Baltimore is second–year man Lorenzo Taliaferro, who is out with a sprained knee. His exact return date is unknown, but Allen will have to impress the coaching staff if he wants to keep his limited role, and his limited dynasty value.
o Okay, you’re probably noticing a theme now. Like Zenner, Thomas Rawls was a running back who was disappointed to not hear his name called during the 2015 NFL Draft and his decision to sign with the running back stacked Seahawks seemed questionable, at best. Now, just a few months later, the team has waived and later placed on injured reserve former backup Robert Turbin and traded the much-hyped Christine Michael, leaving Rawls and newly-signed Fred Jackson behind Marshawn Lynch. Rawls is currently slated as the third back, but what speaks volumes is the length the team went to keep him on their final 53 man roster. Rawls finished his college career at Central Michigan, but he was formerly a highly ranked recruit of the Wolverines, who dealt with some off-field issues before leaving Michigan. Rostering Rawls now might be more of a slow play, but it could pay off big time.
o The longtime running back duo in Carolina was finally broken up this offseason as DeAngelo Williams departed for Pittsburgh. The team then added rookie Cameron Artis-Payne, formerly of Auburn, and he’s quickly won the backup job. Starter http://www.nbcsports.com/edge/player/NFL/4650/Jonathan-StewartJonathan Stewart had an impressive season in 2014, finally managing to stay healthy for the majority of the year. Unfortunately, this is somewhat rare for Stewart and not something we should expect every year. If Stewart goes down, CAP is next in line and would see a quick boost in dynasty value. He’s the type of back I would be looking to sell rather than insert into my starting lineup, but for now, I’m scooping him off the waiver wire for free.
o Let’s finally break away from the rookie trend and look at a second-year back who has a chance to make an impact. The Tennessee Titans had a running back battle between Bishop Sankey and David Cobb and neither could really separate themselves, until that is, Cobb suffered an injury and the team suddenly felt a need at the position. That need was filled as they traded for the odd man out in the Cleveland competition, Terrance West. West was clearly third in the pecking order behind Isaiah Crowell and Duke Johnson, but that may not be the case in Nashville. Let’s assume Sankey will be the early season starter, but West should see plenty of touches after Cobb was placed on the injured reserve list, but designated to return later in the year. West is not a player I’m really excited about, but neither is Sankey, making this a situation to avoid unless you’re desperate at running back.
o Stay with me on this one … yes, veteran Ahmad Bradshaw is not currently on an NFL roster. Yes, he’s currently suspended for one week due to a violation of the league’s substance abuse policy. Also true. He suffered a season-ending broken leg last year with the Colts. Regardless, none of that would deter me from stashing him on my dynasty roster. Through the first nine games of the 2014 season, Bradshaw was the RB5 in PPR leagues, outscoring Marshawn Lynch, Jamaal Charles, Eddie Lacy, LeSean McCoy and many others over that span. I would not project that same type of success in 2015, but he can be a solid replacement RB2 or flex option, depending on where he lands. Oh, and the fact that no team has signed him yet is not a red flag, in my opinion. After all, teams would rather wait on signing a player like Bradshaw so as to not guarantee his full 2015 salary. As our own Evan Silva recently pointed out on Twitter, look for Bradshaw to get signed soon after the conclusion of the Week One games.
Wide Receivers
1. Justin Hunter, TEN (1%)
2. Leonard Hankerson, ATL (6%)
3. Sammie Coates, PIT (1%)
4. Donte Moncrief, IND (8%)
5. Jeff Janis, GB (5%)
6. Jerricho Cotchery, CAR (1%)
7. Josh Gordon, CLE (2%)
o Titans’ receiver Justin Hunter didn’t have the best offseason. He was arrested after getting into a fight and was already reportedly on the roster bubble after the team added multiple wide receivers through the draft and free agency. Hunter persevered though and made the final roster for the Titans. Not only that, he’s now being pegged by head coach Ken Whisenhunt as a player the team is counting on to make big plays. This might be Hunter’s last chance to make an impact in the NFL and for fantasy players, but I’m still willing to see what he can do, especially if he’s available on the waiver wire.
o The WR3 spot has been a position of unexpected production for the Atlanta Falcons in recent years. This year, it looks like former Redskin Leonard Hankerson will be manning that role and considering veteran Roddy White is an injury waiting to happen, Hankerson could end up as a starter before we know it. If Hankerson is on my league’s waiver wire, I’m not waiting for White’s elbow injury to flare up, I’m stashing him now and will even consider plugging him in as a starter if and when White misses time.
o We’ve all seen the news of the suspension of Steelers’ wide receiver Martavis Bryant. Potentially the most interesting subplot to come from this story is the quote from head coach Mike Tomlin, essentially admitting the team drafted Coates after learning of the impending Bryant suspension. We’ll never know if this is true, but what has been proven is the Steelers ‘ recent history when it comes to drafting wide receivers. In just the past few years, they’ve selected Mike Wallace, Emmanuel Sanders, Antonio Brown and Bryant. We can’t assume Coates is the next in line, but I also don’t want to bet against him.
o I’m sure you noticed, or at least have seen it discussed recently, but the next wide receiver sent into the game following Jordy Nelson’s torn ACL was sophomore Jeff Janis, a favorite of the metrics crowd. After flashing last preseason, Janis barely touched the field during his rookie year and many were ready to pull the plug when the team re-signed Randall Cobb and drafted Ty Montgomery. Instead, Janis had another outstanding preseason campaign, hauling in three touchdowns on only ten receptions. Many are jumping on Davante Adams’ bandwagon, and rightfully so, but he’s unproven as well and it shouldn’t surprise anyone if any of the trio of Adams, Janis or Montgomery claims the second receiver role in Green Bay. I’m grabbing Janis until I find out who that might be.
o Many of the players I list in this series each week will earn their spot due to upside, potential and what they might do. This is not the case with Jerricho Cotchery, the Panthers’ veteran who should see an increased role following the season-ending injury to star Kelvin Benjamin. While Cotchery is not currently listed as a starter for the Panthers, he’s the player I expect to be the most consistent receiver for a team that is currently slated to start Corey Brown and Ted Ginn in Week One. It could be a long year in Carolina.
o As I noted in the introduction, these percentages reflect all Yahoo fantasy leagues, not specifically dynasty leagues, so the very low ownership percentage for Browns’ receiver Josh Gordon is not totally surprising. After all, he’s suspended yet again and this time he’ll miss the entire season. That being said, he’s scheduled to return for the 2016 season and unless you play in a dynasty league with very shallow rosters, Gordon should be on a roster. I don’t expect that percentage to change much throughout the season and I won’t repeat myself often, but Gordon has WR1 overall ability and should be rostered in nearly all dynasty leagues.
Tight Ends
1. Maxx Williams, BAL (2%)
2. Eric Ebron, DET (9%)
3. Crockett Gillmore, BAL (1%)
o The Baltimore Ravens have a pair of intriguing tight ends. The first is rookie Maxx Williams, the first tight end drafted last spring as the Ravens grabbed him in the second round. Williams’ talent is undeniable, but the reports of his performance and grasp of the offense have not been good this offseason. Williams will not start and we’ve learned not to rely on rookie tight ends in dynasty leagues, but Williams serves as a high upside stash with an eye towards 2016.
o As I just said, the expectations of rookie tight ends have been lowered the past couple of years, but that didn’t stop many from investing a high rookie pick in the Lions’ Eric Ebron a year ago. Ebron struggled through his rookie season, but has reportedly been impressive this preseason and the Lions will need him to develop as a pass-catcher to prove worthy of their high draft pick they used on him. Based on this low ownership percentage, many dynasty players have already given up on Ebron, which could come back to bite them.
o The player that will start in Baltimore is second year man Crockett Gillmore, who had a relatively quiet rookie season. Gillmore is a huge man at 6’6” and over 270 pounds, which could make him a red zone target for Joe Flacco. I’m not exactly sure what to expect from Gillmore, but I think we’ll know pretty quickly how Marc Trestman and the Ravens will use him, which will tell us if he’s worthy of a dynasty roster spot.
Players on Injured Reserve worth stashing for 2015 (under 20%) Jace Amaro, Niles Paul, Jay Ajayi
