Each week in the Dynasty Hot Sheet, I’ll update you on the latest NFL news and how that affects the dynasty value of the players involved. In order to stay on top of your league, you have to have a keen understanding of the current value of players, including knowing which players are on the rise, and which are primed for a drop in value.
We are now one game into the NFL season and we are already seeing how player value can spike or bottom out due to breakout performances or an injury. With this first edition of the 2014 Dynasty Hot Sheet, I’ll catch you up on all the news of the past nine months, including the recently completed NFL pre-season action.
For this week only, we’ll take a quick look at all 32 teams to identify both an up and coming player, as well as a player whose value has been tumbling since the final second ticked off the clock in Super Bowl XLVIII.
Arizona Cardinals
Hot List: Everyone seems to be in agreement. This is the year we see a true breakout from Michael Floyd. Although he broke the 1,000 yard mark last year and had more yards than teammate Larry Fitzgerald, he was still somewhat under the radar in many dynasty leagues. Not for long!
Cold List: This is a bit of late breaking news, but there is some concern about the foot of lead running back Andre Ellington. While this could be a major issue, it shouldn’t be a major surprise. Ellington was recently pegged as one of the running backs most likely to suffer an injury this season and the team clearly limited his touches during his rookie year. If you were counting on Ellington, time for a backup plan.
Atlanta Flacons
Hot List: Based on last season, it’s safe to say the fate of the Falcons lives and dies with Julio Jones. He’s back and fully healthy and will quickly remind dynasty owners why he’s one of the best. Expect a huge year from Jones and a bounce back season for the Dirty Birds.
Cold List: The running game for the Falcons might be an issue though. After the team drafted Devonta Freeman, that was the signal that the end was near for veteran Steven Jackson. That almost came sooner than we imagined, as there were rumors he might not make the team’s final roster. This is likely Jackson’s final year with the team, and maybe his swan song in the league.
Baltimore Ravens
Hot List: Bernard Pierce is the new starting running back for the Baltimore Ravens, for at least the first two weeks that is. The Ravens entire running game struggled in 2013, but the team seems at least willing to give Pierce more carries, even after presumed starter Ray Rice returns from his suspension.
Cold List: Dynasty owners and NFL fans alike were disgusted by the alleged actions of Rice this off-season, when he got into an altercation with his then fiancée. That domestic issue not only resulted in a two game ban for Rice, but also a new NFL policy regarding such domestic issues. Just a year ago, Rice was a first round startup pick and now can be had for pennies on the dollar.
Buffalo Bills
Hot List: Sammy Watkins is the new face in town after the Bills traded up to select him in the 2014 NFL Draft. Despite the lackluster offense and poor quarterback play, expectations are high for Watkins, who is already being drafted as a WR1 before even taking an official NFL snap.
Cold List: After a disappointing rookie season in which he not only struggled but missed time due to injury, the 2014 season is off to a bad start for Bills’ quarterback EJ Manuel. He’s played poorly and the team is already searching for his replacement, signing veteran Kyle Orton just a week before the season began.
Carolina Panthers
Hot List: While the receiving depth chart is still a major issue for the Carolina Panthers, it appears one bright spot might be rookie Kelvin Benjamin, who caught the National Championship winning touchdown for the Florida State Seminoles last season. While there are some rookie receivers getting more attention, Benjamin could change that quickly, as he should be the favorite target of Cam Newton from day one.
Cold List: The Panthers running game continues to be an issue. DeAngelo Williams is nearing the end of his career and it seems like Jonathan Stewart’s promising career will never really take off, thanks to injuries and having to play second fiddle to Williams. The worst part for Panthers fans is the way their enormous contract of both players is limiting what the team management can do each off-season.
Chicago Bears
Hot List: Jay Cutler is having a bit of a late career revitalization, thanks to the high-powered offense of head coach Marc Trestman. Cutler was on pace for one of the best seasons of his career before he went down with an injury. Now fully healthy and resting in the comfort of a new long-term contract, Cutler is ready to roll and his dynasty value is surging.
Cold List: Another receiver that was being touted for a breakout year was Marquess Wilson, who was in line to be the third receiver in the Bears offense. Wilson suffered broken collarbone that will keep him out of action for at least the first ten weeks of the season. Still only 21 years old, now might be a good time to throw out some trade offers in hopes of acquiring Wilson.
Cincinnati Bengals
Hot List: Just last year, we were all looking at rookie Giovani Bernard with expectations that he would force veteran BenJarvus Green-Ellis out of town. Instead, it was new rookie Jeremy Hill that did that. The Bengals drafted hill and view him as their new thumper of a running back. Expect Hill to see carries early and often as he vultures touchdowns from Bernard.
Cold List: Things were looking great for wide receiver Marvin Jones, who had established himself as the second receiver in this up temp offense. Then, Jones broke a bone in his foot. Reports vary on how long this will keep Jones out. If he can return in week five, as recently reported, his dynasty value will be largely unaffected, though some have concern this could be an issue that Jones deals with for much of the season.
Cleveland Browns
Hot List: Expect the Browns to run, run, run this season. In addition to signing free agent Ben Tate, the Browns also added rookie runners Terrance West and Isaiah Crowell. They even drafted a quarterback that can run a little bit. Not all of these backs will see a spike in dynasty value, but if you can guess correctly, at least one will provide some excellent value.
Cold List: This one is an easy call, unfortunately. One of the most talented players in the league, wide receiver Josh Gordon, failed a drug test and will miss the entire season. It’s a huge fall from grace for a player that many dynasty owners considered the top overall value in dynasty leagues. This gives you a year to acquire the talented but troubled wideout, if you have the patience to deal with his baggage.
Dallas Cowboys
Hot List: Dez Bryant, Dez Bryant, Dez Bryant! This should be the year that Dez Bryant finally takes control and carries this team on his back. He’s my top ranked player in all of dynasty.
Cold List: It’s actually difficult to find many holes when looking at the Cowboys’ offense (it’s another story on the other side of the ball.) If I had to highlight one concern, it’s the health of quarterback Tony Romo. With former backup Kyle Orton evidently eager to get out of town (he retired, then came back and signed with the Bills) Dallas is left with Brandon Weeden as the second option. If Romo misses any time, the season is likely sunk.
Denver Broncos
Hot List: The Broncos have some young players on the rise. Montee Ball is the new starting running back for the AFC champions and with Peyton Manning always a threat to throw the ball down the field, Ball should have plenty of room to run. Lined up outside, the Broncos added a rookie in Cody Latimer, along with the signing of free agent Emmanuel Sanders. Those two could see more snaps than expected, thanks to….
Cold List: …Wes Welker. This has not been a good pre-season to say the least for Welker. First, he suffered his third concussion in the past year in the pre-season game against the Houston Texans. That brought great concern for Welker’s future and even caused some to throw around the R word…retirement. While that situation was still being settled, Welker was suspended for four games for violating the league’s substance abuse policy.
Detroit Lions
Hot List: It seems like years upon years that the Lions have been searching for a solid second receiver to pair with superstar Calvin Johnson. They may have finally found just that in Golden Tate and as a result, Tate’s dynasty value has never been higher.
Cold List: For the second consecutive year, the Lions have added a rookie tight end. After hitting the jackpot with undrafted free agent Joseph Fauria last year, who proved to be a serious red zone threat, the Lions wasted no time in grabbing Eric Ebron in the first round this year. While he’s still on top of the depth chart, these are signs that Brandon Pettigrew’s time in fantasy lineups should come to an end.
Green Bay Packers
Hot List: The questions surrounding the Green Bay Packers have little to do with the skill position players, but rather their teammates. Can the offensive line protect Aaron Rodgers and provide Eddie Lacy with room to run? Can the Packers’ defense keep them in the game against top competition? If the answers to these questions are yes, expect for big years for Rodgers, Lacy, Randall Cobb and Jordy Nelson.
Cold List: As I said, a look at the Packers roster of fantasy relevant players causes dynasty owners to drool. After Lacy suffered a concussion last night, his second in his NFL career, there is cause for concern. Lacy had some injury worries entering the league, which were washed away after his remarkable rookie year, but now will be at the forefront of dynasty owners’ minds.
Houston Texans
Hot List: The Houston Texans were rumored to have interest in Patriots backup quarterback Ryan Mallett for the entire off-season and the rumors came true just last week as the Texans traded for Mallett. The former Patriot has struggled this pre-season, but this could be the chance he needed, considering he is being reunited with Bill O’Brien.
Cold List: Running back Arian Foster remains a top option for yearly or daily players, but in dynasty leagues, his value is fading. He missed half the season in 2013 and has already been dealing with flare-ups of his hamstring injury.
Indianapolis Colts
Hot List: The Colts are Andrew Luck’s team and that’s never been clearer. After Reggie Wayne went down last year, Luck was left with few options in the passing game, so the team added free agent Hakeem Nicks and drafted Donte Moncrief from Ole Miss. The addition of those two, along with the return of Wayne and tight end Dwayne Allen give Luck all the choices he could want when it comes time to hike the ball.
Cold List: In 2013, he was among the top drafted players in dynasty startups, but now Trent Richardson brings nothing but disappointment to most dynasty owners. If you still believe (I do!) then now is the time to buy.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Hot List: The Jaguars have a lot to be excited about when it comes to offensive talent, and that’s not something we say every year. The Jags began by signing running back Toby Gerhart to be their starter and then revitalized their passing offense on draft weekend by selecting quarterback Blake Bortles and wide receivers Marqise Lee and Allen Robinson. They’ve even signed undrafted free agent Allen Hurns, who has been a nice surprise this pre-season.
Cold List: Like the Cleveland Browns, the Jaguars are also dealing with the loss of one of the top receiving talents in the league as Justin Blackmon’s indefinite suspension continues. Blackmon was recently busted for possession of marijuana. While Blackmon can appeal for reinstatement on November 1st of this year, the team has said they do not expect him to play this season. He’s likely played his last down in Jacksonville.
Kansas City Chiefs
Hot List: It doesn’t bode well for your team when your backup tight end is being identified as the “hot” option, but that’s how the Chiefs like it. They are not flashy, but they’ve been successful under Andy Reid. Anyway, Travis Kelce missed his entire rookie season after undergoing microfracture surgery, but he looks like a new man and has been tearing up the pre-season action. Don’t be surprised if he sees more snaps, targets and catches than starter Anthony Fasano.
Cold List: Mush like some of the other players making the cold list, things were already going poorly for Dwayne Bowe…and then he got suspended. Bowe will only be forced to sit out of the season’s opening game for his offense, but will the Chiefs even notice?
Miami Dolphins
Hot List: With new offensive coordinator Bill Lazor in town, hopes are high for Ryan Tannehill. Lazor was the quarterbacks coach in Philadelphia last season, helping to lead to Nick Foles’ breakout year.
Cold List: One of last season most hyped players, running back Lamar Miller, left dynasty owners feeling flat and it looks like 2014 could be a repeat. The Dolphins added Knowshon Moreno and despite an injury that kept him out of action for much of training camp, it appears the pair of back are on even ground entering the season.
Minnesota Vikings
Hot List: The Vikings offense has undergone somewhat of a makeover, with a new offensive coordinator in Norv Turner and a new rookie quarterback, Teddy Bridgewater. Both of these additions should bode well in the long run for athletic freak Cordarrelle Patterson, who is already being valued as a top 15 dynasty wide receiver, despite limited snaps as a rookie.
Cold List: This is yet another team where it’s difficult to find a down side. There are new players on offense, along with some reliable veterans and the Vikings could surprise this season. Don’t forget though, Adrian Peterson won’t be around forever. If you’re not contending, it’s time to sell.
New England Patriots
Hot List: The news is all about superstar tight end Rob Gronkowski when it comes to the Patriots. Gronkowski appears healthy and should be ready to go when they lace them up this weekend. When Gronkowski is healthy, he’s one of the most dominant players in the league and a difference maker in fantasy leagues.
Cold List: Many, myself included, have had high hopes for second year wide receiver Aaron Dobson. While it’s not time to give up yet, the consistent injury issues that have kept him on the sidelines much of this pre-season have been disappointing.
New Orleans Saints
Hot List: The Saints have some well established stars on their roster, namely Drew Brees and Jimmy Graham, but the player that dynasty owners are dying to see suit up this weekend in rookie receiver Brandin Cooks. Cooks, formerly of Oregon State, is a dynamic playmaker and should partially fill the roles formerly held by Darren Sproles and Lance Moore. That means tons of targets in one of the best offenses in football.
Cold List: The running game of the Saints continues to be a muddy situation, making for difficult decisions for dynasty owners. Even with Sproles now in Philadelphia, the team will still trot out Pierre Thomas, Mark Ingram and Khiry Robinson at difference points in a game. I’m opting for Ingram, but I can’t say I’m all that confident in him.
New York Giants
Hot List: The running game for the Giants last year was a nightmare, but they ensured that wouldn’t happen again as they signed underrated Rashad Jennings away from the Raiders and then drafted workhorse Andre Williams, formerly of Boston College. The duo look like the perfect fit early on in the season and better yet, both are great values in dynasty leagues.
Cold List: One of the tough stories of the off-season involves talented running back David Wilson. After missing much of last season with a serious neck injury, Wilson battled back, only to reinjure his neck and be forced to retire. Wilson was being drafted among the top 20 players this time last year, based on hype and expectations. While it’s a terrible situation for Wilson, it’s a lesson learned for dynasty owners.
New York Jets
Hot List: The Jets have added several players on offense, but the biggest difference maker should be wide receiver Eric Decker. While he’ll struggle to reproduce similar numbers to his time in Denver, he gives young quarterback Geno Smith a consistent and reliable target to look for in this offense.
Cold List: When Michael Vick arrived in New York, many predicted a hotly contested battle for the starting quarterback job. What we got instead was Vick’s apparent acceptance of the mentor’s role to Smith. Vick never put up a fight and, as a result, has no dynasty value left.
Oakland Raiders
Hot List: Derek Carr was drafted to be the future at quarterback, but with his solid play and the struggles of veteran Matt Schaub, the future is now. Carr beat out Schaub for the starting job and his dynasty value is on the rise.
Cold List: It’s not so much Cold List material, but more just a confusing situation. The Raiders are stacked with mediocre talent at both running back and wide receiver. Someone is likely to break out and provide dynasty owners with value, but who? My personal choices are Latavius Murray and Denarius Moore.
Philadelphia Eagles
Hot List: We knew the Eagles would add some pass catchers following the deal sending DeSean Jackson off the DC and they did just that, making Jordan Matthews their newest wide receiver. Dynasty owners are anxious to get any piece of the Chip Kelly offense and grabbing Matthews in rookie drafts was the ideal way to do that.
Cold List: Things are going so well for Kelly and the Eagles, there really is no option for a Cold List this off-season. There was some concern about the depth at skill positions a year ago, but the Eagles then signed Mark Sanchez, traded for Darren Sproles, and added Matthews and fellow rookie Josh Huff through the draft. Look out NFC!
Pittsburgh Steelers
Hot List: Some seemed ready to give up on Ben Roethlisberger last year, but he, and the entire Steelers offense, picked it up as the season went along. Expect that pace to continue with second year receiver Markus Wheaton playing a larger role.
Cold List: Second year running back Le’Veon Bell has sometimes been compared to Trent Richardson. Both had impressive rookie years, despite a low number of yards per carry. Of course, we know how that’s turned out for Richardson. Could it do the same for Bell? The team might be concerned, since they added LeGarrette Blount this off-season.
San Diego Chargers
Hot List: One of the most talked about players among dynasty circles this off-season has been backup tight end Ladarius Green. We all saw the breakouts of Julius Thomas and Jordan Cameron a year ago. It could be Green’s turn now, even with Antonio Gates in his way.
Cold List: The Chargers continues to show a lack of trust and reliance on talents back Ryan Mathews. After adding Danny Woodhead last season, the team signed Donald Brown this off-season. With Ken Whisenhunt no longer in town, this is probably a situation to avoid.
San Francisco 49ers
Hot List: Rookie running back Carlos Hyde is the 49ers latest attempt to prepare themselves for the end of Frank Gore’s career. After the failed experiments of Kendall Hunter, LaMichael James and Marcus Lattimore, I think they may have hit pay dirt. Get Hyde now, before it’s too late.
Cold List: The season is all riding on the back, or should I say arm, of quarterback Colin Kaepernick. While he’s proven he can play against the big boys, Kaepernick has only been mediocre against lesser competition, both as a fantasy quarterback as well as for the 49ers.
Seattle Seahawks
Hot List: The Seahawks won the Super Bowl and put together an impressive run all season, basically without wide receiver Percy Harvin. Harvin is again healthy and is he can stay that way all season, with the creative ways the team will get him the ball, we’re looking at a top ten season at the receiver position. That would likely result in a top ten ranking and value as well, but it all hinges on Harvin staying off the injury report.
Cold List: It’s funny that after a team won the Super Bowl with a roster that features a dynamic young quarterback, a workhorse Beast of a running back and one of the most electric playmakers in the game at receiver, the player dynasty owners wanted to focus on this off-season was Christine Michael. Now that the season has started, Michael’s time in the spotlight seems to have ended, for now.
St. Louis Rams
Hot List: There’s little to be excited about in St. Louis this year. The wide receiver corps is filled with disappointments and their star running back fro last year barely held off Benny Cunningham this pre-season. One bright spot could come from none other than Kenny Britt. After finally making his way out of Tennessee, the reports on Britt have all been positive. Could this be the year he turns things around both on and off the field? If so, he’ll prove to be a bargain for dynasty owners.
Cold List: Where do we begin? Quarterback Sam Bradford is out for the year and may have taken his last snap as a Ram, the running back depth chart is in flux with the addition of Tre Mason and the apparent rise of Cunningham and the wide receivers as a whole, continue to underwhelm. Other than that…
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Hot List: If one thing was clear from this off-season, it’s that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers like touchdowns. They signed veteran gunslinger Josh McCown to be their starting quarterback and then drafted 154 inches worth if pass catchers in Mike Evans and Austin Seferian-Jenkins.
Cold List: I love the moves the Bucs made this off-season, but I worry if McCown is the right man for the job. He looked great in Marc Trestman’s offense a year ago, but that was the highlight of his career. Can he repeat his performance away from the quarterback friendly offense? If not, it could hurt Evans, Seferian-Jenkins and Vincent Jackson in the short-term.
Tennessee Titans
Hot List: The Titans selected running back Bishop Sankey in the 2014 NFL Draft and with the departure of former starter Chris Johnson, this job could be Sankey’s to claim. He hasn’t done that yet, as Shonn Greene currently sits atop the depth chart, but Sankey is clearly the back to own in Nashville.
Cold List: The Titans have continued to show a complete lack of confidence in quarterback Jake Locker, and you can’t really blame them. This off-season, they declined his option for the 2015 season, making him an unrestricted free agent at the conclusion of this season. They also added later round rookie quarterback Zach Mettenberger, who could get a shot if Locker struggles, or suffers another injury.
Washington Redskins
Hot List: Tight end Jordan Reed’s rookie season was cut short due to concussions, but he’s back and ready to go. The Redskins were smart to be cautious with Reed and that choice should pay off this season. The addition of DeSean Jackson should open things even more the underrated tight end.
Cold List: Off-season and pre-season reports have been almost exclusively negative for starting quarterback Robert Griffin III, even going as far as suggesting Kirk Cousins was a threat to earn the starting role. Griffin has to come out on fire to prove he’s the right man for the job, and maintain his flimsy dynasty value.
