Below is a look at the league’s most extreme run funnel and pass funnel defenses through Week 12 — teams being consistently attacked on the ground or through the air regardless of game script.
Having an understanding of which defenses are being bludgeoned via the rush or pass should help us identify matchups that may be better than we think in Week 13.
Run Funnel Defenses
Arizona Cardinals
The red birds, as faithful readers of this space surely know, were highlighted in Week 12 as one of the NFL’s most reliable run funnel defenses. Sean McVay clearly read the column and proceeded to run roughshod over Arizona with Kyren Williams racking up over 200 yards. Surprisingly, the Rams were 1 percent over their expected drop back rate.
Pro Football Focus’ lowest graded rush defense, the Cardinals have been generous to opposing rushers all season. They allow the fourth highest yards before contact per rush through Week 12. No team is a more extreme run funnel since Week 9. The Cardinals practically invite teams to establish it against them.
What it means for Week 13: I don’t see any way Mike Tomlin and the Steelers fight the temptation to run all over Arizona this week. Sure, the Steelers passing offense appeared functional for the first time in years last week in their first game without Matt Canada calling plays, and yes, Kenny Pickett should be a lot better in this iteration of the Pittsburgh offense.
But don’t lose sight of the Steelers being 8 percent below their expected drop back rate against the Bengals last week. On the season, they’re 6 percent below said rate. Both Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren are in what the zoomers are calling “giga smash spots” against the Cards. Harris has a 27-22 edge in rushes over the past two weeks while Warren has a 6-1 edge in receptions. The Steelers should be able to steamroll Arizona with Warren and Harris in Week 13.
New York Jets
A stingy secondary has turned the Jets into a week-in-and-week-out run funnel. They are, in fact, the NFL’s most extreme run funnel on the season and the second most extreme over the past month. The Dolphins, who entered Week 12 at 4 percent above their expected drop back rate, were 5 percent under that rate against the Jets on Black Friday. And it all worked out quite well for Raheem Mostert (94 yards and two scores on 20 carries).
What it means for Week 13: Enter Arthur Smith and the ultra-conservative Atlanta offense. The Falcons have taken their run heaviness to a new and thrilling level of late: They’re 20 percent under their expected drop back rate over the past two weeks. Smith has all but abandoned the pass when the Falcons have a second half lead.
Unless Tim Boyle can help the Jets seize a big lead, the Falcons are going to be in position to run it roughly 2,000 times against Gang Green. That doesn’t necessarily mean a glut of rushing attempts for Bijan Robinson, who saw 48 percent of the team’s rushes in Week 12’s win over New Orleans. It should mean 20 touches for Robinson along with double digit touches for Tyler Allgeier, who continues to be involved inside the ten. Allgeier, with that sort of floor assuming positive game script, should be fine as a flex option against the Jets.
Cincinnati Bengals
Once a pass funnel defense, the Bengals have become a (somewhat) reliable run funnel in recent weeks. They’re the NFL’s tenth most pronounced run funnel over the past month while allowing the highest yards before contact per rush — a stat closely correlated to explosive rushes. Only the Browns have a higher rate of missed tackles per rushing attempt.
What it means for Week 13: D’Ernest Johnson could, maybe, be in line for lead back duties against the Bengals this Sunday with Travis Etienne dealing with a chest injury. The always-efficient Johnson in Week 12 has seven carries in back to back games as Etienne’s grip on the backfield gets a little looser than it was in October.
Johnson should be stashed in case Etienne misses Friday’s practice and can’t suit up for Week 13. Don’t worry about rookie Tank Bigsby, who seems to have been designed in a lab to destroy expected points added (EPA).
Green Bay Packers
Game script turned wonky early in the Packers’ Thanksgiving day game against Detroit. Green Bay jumped out to a big lead and the Lions, which would usually lead to a massively pass heavy offense. It didn’t. Detroit was 4 percent under their expected drop back rate against Green Bay in Week 12.
Almost every Packers opponent has leaned hard on the run over the past couple months. It’s why Green Bay is the league’s fourth most pronounced run funnel defense.
What it means for Week 13: The Chiefs are never going to abandon the pass, though they have been a little more balanced in 2023 than they were in 2021 and 2020. We saw KC go run heavy against the run-funnel Jets in Week 4 and they were only 3 percent over their expected drop back rate in Week 12 against the run-funnel Raiders.
Isiah Pacheco, barring some exceedingly weird game script, should have 20 touches locked in against a middling Green Bay run defense. In 12-team leagues, you’re starting Pacheco no matter what. In 10-team formats, you should find a way to get him into your Week 13 lineup.
Pass Funnel Defenses
Detroit Lions
That the Lions have morphed into a reliable pass funnel is no big mystery considering how poor the team’s secondary has played over the past month. PFF grades Detroit’s secondary as the NFL’s seventh worst coverage unit on the season.
Since Week 8, the Lions are allowing the third highest drop back EPA and the sixth highest completion rate over expected. On Thanksgiving, we saw Jordan Love transform into career-prime Aaron Rodgers against these Lions. Only three teams are more extreme pass funnels than the Lions this year.
What it means for Week 13: As faithful Rotoworld readers know, the Saints’ wideout room has been ravaged by injuries. Chris Olave is iffy for Week 13 after sustaining a brain injury last week against Atlanta. Michael Thomas is on IR. Rashid Shaheed is likely out with a quad injury.
If Olave suits up, he’s in a superb spot. But you know that. Who else could benefit from a pass-first approach for New Orleans against the Lions? Alvin Kamara, certainly. Also, Taysom Hill. Fantasy managers can’t forget pass-catching options like Juwan Johnson, who ran a full complement of routes last week and was targeted seven times. Johnson could be in line for double digit looks if Olave is sidelined and the Saints attack the Lions via the pass.
There’s also Lynn Bowden, the RB-WR hybrid journeyman who in Week 12 had 40 yards on two rushes while running 21 routes on 40 Saints drop backs. The explosive Bowden could luck into a handful of targets if Olave is out against Detroit. Rookie WR A.T. Perry last week was second on the team in pass routes but a first quarter red zone miscommunication with Derek Carr hung over his first game as a functional starter in the Saints offense. Perry was only targeted twice on 34 routes.
