Payton: Bo Nix’s movement ‘back to where it was’

Nix’s play — including missing easy intermediate throws in the first half — left Broncos offensive coordinator Davis Webb without answers, a common theme so far this season. His lone touchdown came on a garbage time score to Jaylen Waddle. Nix was in check-down mode throughout the game against the Niners, finishing with a 4.9 aDOT. He was 5 percent under his expected completion rate, targeting his running backs 12 times. Until Webb and Sean Payton figure out the offense, Nix will be a superflex-only fantasy option without much of a weekly ceiling. He gets the Chargers in Week 5.

The Broncos were shut out in the first half amidst consistent struggles from Nix, who, for his part, turned in solid production in a third quarter that saw the Broncos knot the game at 16 through two touchdowns and successful two-point conversions. Nix and the Broncos would struggle to move the football again in the fourth quarter but a pick-six from safety Talanoa Hufanga gave them the lead with under five minutes to play. Stafford returned blows to send the Rams to a three-point lead before Nix’s game-winning score from one yard out. That final drive was aided by three key penalties to go against the Rams, the final of which was questionable, to put it kindly. Josh Wallace appeared to intercept Nix for the second time in the fourth quarter but a defensive pass interference penalty was called, giving the Broncos renewed life. Hufanga would intercept Stafford for a second time in the fourth quarter, this time in the end zone, to seal the victory for the Broncos as time expired. Nix and offensive coordinator Davis Webb have not looked good through three games despite the team’s 2-1 record, and will need to clean things up ahead of another NFC West showdown against the 49ers in Week 4. Nix is currently nothing more than a middling QB2.

It was an uneven day for Nix, who missed some routine throws and threw a bad pick in the end zone while targeting Courtland Sutton. He targeted Jaylen Waddle heavily and connected with Waddle for a 49-yard gain in the first half, regularly attacking the Jaguars secondary downfield. After taking far too many sacks in Week 1 against the Chiefs, Nix was not sacked against a solid Jaguars pass rush on Sunday. Nix’s lack of early-season rushing success has dinged his fantasy prospects a bit. He’s a fine superflex option for Week 3 against the Rams, however.

Nix during his postgame presser defended offensive play caller Davis Webb, who took over for head coach Sean Payton this offseason. “The players did not make it easy on [Webb] today,” said Nix, who completed 17-of-28 passes for 131 yards, one touchdown, and one interception in Monday night’s loss to Kansas City. “Pretty pitiful, actually.” Denver had the league’s second lowest drop back EPA of Week 1; only the Falcons were worse. Nix, meanwhile, ranked 28th out of 32 qualifying QBs in Week 1 accuracy. “We called exactly what we prepared for and what we wanted to get to and we just didn’t execute,” Nix said. “Then we were behind.” Webb and the Broncos will look to bounce back in Week 2 against a tough Jaguars defense.

Nix and the rest of the Denver offense struggled throughout against Steve Spagnuolo’s Kansas City defense, gaining fewer yards as a team (176) than opposing running back Kenneth Walker (191). Things seemed to be clicking early after the Broncos were able to knot the game at seven in the first quarter, but quickly fell apart under unrelenting pressure. The poor offensive showing is sure to draw criticism in the media considering it was the first game called by first-time offensive coordinator Davis Webb after head coach Sean Payton relinquished play calling duties this offseason. Whether that setup continues remains to be seen and we wouldn’t be shocked if Webb failed to make it through the first six weeks still calling plays. The Broncos hold the league’s most difficult schedule through the first six weeks, with games against Jaguars, Rams, 49ers, Chargers, and Seahawks on the immediate horizon. Nix could regain form against the pass-funnel Jaguars in Week 2, where he will be a back-end QB1.

Nix looked mobile and eager to chuck it downfield. He even had a few overthrows, which we suppose is a good thing for a quarterback who spent the offseason rehabbing an ankle injury. The Broncos quarterback linked up with new WR Jaylen Waddle for a 35-yard gain down the seam and targeted WR Courtland Sutton a couple of times along the sideline. He found tonight’s starting RB RJ Harvey speeding down the right side of the field on a wheel route, and linked up with the second-year running back for a 21-yard touchdown to conclude the first drive. New OC Davis Webb regularly dialed up play action, which is great for fantasy purposes. Nix looks like a low-end QB1.

“Absolutely not,” was Nix’s response when asked if he planned to run less following his unfortunate Divisional Round injury. “I’m going to roll, and I’m going to be as athletic as I can be. Like the earlier question, it’s a strength of ours and we have to use our strengths. For me, that’s when I feel at my best and that’s when I feel free.” Nix went on for several more sentences. That’s about as clear as you could ever expect a player to be. Nix’s legs have been a big part of his low-end QB1 value and streamer success. Now with an enhanced supporting cast via the addition of Jaylen Waddle, the third-year starter could be set up for another “surprise” step forward in fantasy.

The Broncos kicked things off with two “acclimation practices and officially open training camp to fans on Friday morning,” so we should get a clearer picture of Nix’s participation level tomorrow. Broncos RT Mike McGlinchey said Nix’s hard work this offseason is “the reason why he’s in position to be full-go from Day 1 to start.” It sounds like Nix should participate fully tomorrow. Stay tuned.

Broncos OC Davis Webb will add elements to Denver’s offense this season. Last year, the Broncos attempted the sixth-fewest (51) passes thrown 10-plus yards downfield and between the painted numbers. For reference, the league-leading Lions attempted 102 passes in this area of the field. Evans did not provide an average target depth in today’s report, but we are pleased to hear Webb is focusing on the middle of the field, regardless. Passes thrown in this area give the pass catcher more room to work, both before and after the catch, which helps them score fantasy points. Even a moderate increase in targets thrown to this area of the field would be great for QB Bo Nix and his pass catchers, like WR Jaylen Waddle and WR Courtland Sutton.

He also admitted that his follow-up procedure was because he was dealing with bone spurs. There’s not really any doubt that Nix will be ready for training camp at this point, and the Broncos seem to be taking it easy with him during mandatory minicamp.