The NFL is better when the Raiders are good. Unfortunately, the Raiders haven’t been good in a long time.
One point is clear from a new article by Zak Keefer of The Athletic regarding the second Jon Gruden stint: The Raiders haven’t had, and don’t have, enough talent to contend.
They haven’t won a playoff game since the 2002 season, which ended with a Super Bowl blowout loss to the Buccaneers, in the season after the late Al Davis traded Gruden to Tampa. (Thirteen years ago, Hall of Fame receiver Tim Brown made major waves during Super Bowl week by claiming that Gruden’s replacement, Bill Callahan, wanted to lose the game.)
Since 2002, the Raiders’ only two playoff appearances happened in 2016 and 2021. The latter was by far the most impressive. Despite having Gruden forced out via the strategic leak of problematic emails sent a decade earlier (his lawsuit against the league is still pending), the Raiders nearly beat the Bengals in the wild-card round. (Cincinnati nearly won the Super Bowl that year.)
It should have resulted in interim coach Rich Bisaccia getting the job. It didn’t; the Raiders instead hired Josh McDaniels and then Antonio Pierce and then Pete Carroll and now Klint Kubiak.
The revolving door of coaches has been exacerbated by an empty cupboard of talent. Last year, they had two elite players — Maxx Crosby and Brock Bowers. Last month, they spent like drunken Tom Bradys on available free agents.
The next question is whether they’ll turn their pole position in the 2026 draft into a contending team. They have the No. 1 overall pick for the first time since drafting quarterback Jamarcus Russell instead of receiver Calvin Johnson or tackle Joe Thomas, both of whom have bronze busts in the Hall of Fame.
Fernando Mendoza will be the next potential franchise quarterback for the Raiders, unless they shock the football world and don’t take him. They need more than that. They need a better line, a better defense. Better receivers. Better everything, basically, except for Crosby and Bowers.
And they’re in a difficult division, competing with the Chiefs, Broncos, and Chargers. This year, the Raiders also will play the teams of the AFC East (including the Patriots and Bills) and the teams of the NFC West (including the Seahawks, Rams, and 49ers).
Through it all, 2002 keeps getting deeper into the rearview mirror. And the Raiders continue to be one of the lesser teams in the league.
If it ever changes, the NFL will be better for it. The Autumn Wind and whatnot. Commitment to excellence. Just win, baby.
For nearly a quarter century, the air has been dank and stagnant. The excellence has been AWOL. And the wins have been too infrequent.
The structure of the game gives every team a fair shot at competing. The Raiders simply haven’t been able to do it. And it all comes down to not having enough good players.
With the odds all the way down to -20000 for quarterback Fernando Mendoza to be the first pick in the draft, there seems to be no way the Raiders won’t be taking him.
The move was treated like a given during quarterback Kirk Cousins’s introductory press conference on Wednesday, when he was asked about the fact that the Raiders will have an all-Big Ten depth chart with quarterbacks from Michigan State, Purdue, and Indiana. (Cousins played for Michigan State, Aidan O’Connell played for Purdue, and Mendoza played for Indiana.)
Cousins didn’t say in response something like, “Well, they haven’t drafted Mendoza yet” or “I don’t know what they’re going to do with the first pick.” He answered the question as it was asked, with no caveat or disclaimer.
On one hand, nothing is done until it’s done. We were reminded of that last month when the trade that would have sent Raiders defensive end Maxx Crosby to the Ravens fell through. On the other hand, it seems highly unlikely the Raiders won’t take Mendoza.
Yes, there have been surprises before. Twenty-five years ago, everyone expected the Chargers to select Michael Vick. In those days, there were many more terms to negotiate with first-round picks, and the talks between the Chargers and Vick collapsed at the eleventh hour. Enter the Falcons, and Atlanta ended up trading for the top pick.
Nowadays, there’s little over which to haggle. Barring a Reggie Bush-style surprise (which, given the current landscape of college sports, now seems ludicrous), it will be Mendoza to the Raiders.
What would it take? Some other team would have to make the Raiders an offer they couldn’t refuse, one that would entail sufficient draft picks to get them to put a pin in the pursuit of a rookie quarterback until 2027 (when the class is believed to be stronger) while also addressing multiple holes in the roster.
The Bears did that in 2023, trading out of the top spot with the Panthers and acquiring the 2024 first-round pick that became the No. 1 overall selection. In 2023, the Bears remained committed to Justin Fields. By 2024, they were ready to pounce on Caleb Williams.
If the Raiders are currently evaluating an offer like that, everyone has kept it very quiet. And evaluating it and taking it are two different things.
Regardless, there’s no smoke. Which means that, if there’s even a flicker of a flame, it’s being incredibly well concealed.
The Raiders have not made any kind of official pronouncement that Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza will be the first overall pick in the 2026 NFL draft, but Raiders quarterback Kirk Cousins has made clear that he knows Mendoza is coming to Las Vegas — and he knows Mendoza will start if he out-performs Cousins in training camp.
Cousins said on NFL Network that he has already told Raiders head coach Klint Kubiak that he’ll accept being a starter or Mendoza’s backup, whichever is best for the team. And Cousins said he’s already talking with Mendoza about playing together.
“I honestly don’t want to start unless I’m the best option, and I told Klint that,” Cousins said. “The best player should play. As long as that’s the case, I have no qualms about however it plays out. I do think Fernando is going to be a great addition to our team. I think he’s going to have a great future in our league. I have no problem being a voice in the room to help him to the degree I can. He’s going to have great support around him with the coaching staff, but to be able to watch a veteran quarterback go through his habits and routines and process, that can be a great asset for him. He was here yesterday on his draft day visit. We were able to watch film together. I think he’ll be a great addition to the room.”
Cousins was disappointed in 2024 when he signed with the Falcons only to have them draft quarterback Michael Penix a month later. But this year, Cousins is going into the draft with his eyes open: He knows the Raiders’ franchise quarterback is Mendoza.
Having won the CFP National Championship with Indiana in January, running back Kaelon Black has a busy pre-draft schedule.
Black has several teams on his list for pre-draft, top 30 visits, including the Jets, Broncos, Panthers, Colts, Texans, Dolphins, Packers, Vikings, Patriots, and Raiders, a source with knowledge of the situation tells PFT.
He may also meet with the Bengals.
Black played under head coach Curt Cignetti at James Madison for two years before transferring to follow Cignetti to Indiana in 2024.
He rushed for 251 yards for Indiana in 2024 before becoming one of the Hoosiers’ two 1,000-yard backs in 2025, finishing the season with 1,040 yards and 10 touchdowns. He also caught four passes for 36 yards.
Kirk Cousins had multiple reasons to sign with the Raiders. Some substantive, at least one superficial.
“Best jerseys in pro sports I think,” Cousins told the team’s website on Monday. “I remember being in warm-ups once playing the Raiders and our head coach looked at me and said, ‘Those have to be the best jerseys that they are in pro sports.’ And I said, ‘You know what Coach, I have to agree. Those are really sharp.’”
Cousins didn’t specify the team for which he was playing at the time. He has a 3-0 career record as a starter against the Raiders — one with each of his three prior teams.
In 2017, Cousins and Washington beat the Raiders, 27-10. In 2019, Cousins at the Vikings beat the Raiders, 34-14. In 2024, Cousins and the Falcons beat the Raiders, 15-9.
Despite getting the victory in Las Vegas on a Monday night in December 2024, Cousins was benched the next day for then-rookie Michael Penix Jr. Cousins didn’t play again that season.
Now, he’s on track to start for the Raiders in Week 1, unless the Raiders don’t make quarterback Fernando Mendoza the first pick in the 2026 draft and unless Mendoza wins the job right out of the games.
As to his observation about the silver and black jerseys (along with the rest of the uniform), it’s hard to argue. There’s a reason the Raiders’ look has resisted becoming Nikefied in the 14 years since the company took over the apparel deal from Reebok, when change for the sake of change swept through the league.
While the team has needed a fix that so far remains elusive, there’s nothing broken about the Raiders’ uniforms. They’re simple and classic. And they’ve never felt compelled to embrace numbers that look different from the standard football-jersey numbers that were once nearly universal in the NFL.
