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Cutting Russell Wilson will create a cap mess for the Broncos (keeping him would, too)

The biggest takeaway from Wednesday’s stunning news that the Broncos have benched quarterback Russell Wilson is that the Broncos will release him before another $37 million in future salary flips from guaranteed for injury to fully guaranteed. That will need to happen between the first day of the waiver period (right after the Super Bowl) and the fifth day of the league year, which begins on March 13.

The transaction will result in $89 million in cap charges, arising from money already paid and his 2024 fully-guaranteed compensation of $39 million. The Broncos can either take the entire hit in 2024, or they can designate Wilson as a post-June 1 release and limit the cap charge to $35.4 million in 2024 and $53.6 million in 2025.

The Broncos eventually would get a credit for Wilson’s earnings elsewhere in 2024. If he takes the one-year veteran minimum of $1.21 million from his next team, that’s all the Broncos will get by way of credit.

It’s still better than the cap consequences of keeping him. His cap number for 2024 would be $35.4 million under his current deal, along with $55.4 million in 2025. That’s $90.8 million. Also, cutting him saves $37 million in cash.

Will this hurt Denver’s ability to field the most competitive team possible in 2024? Sure. But it won’t be impossible. The Buccaneers are closing in on a division championship despite carrying more than $75 million in dead money, with $35 million of it coming from Tom Brady. Also, with the cap going up and up and up, the relative impact of seemingly staggering cap charges continues to drop as the cap continues to rise.