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Premier League’s race for UEFA Champions League is wide open and as deep as ever

We’re only eight weeks into the 2025-26 Premier League season, but a quick glance at the table reveals a fantastic UEFA Champions League chase already taking shape.

MOREFull Premier League table | Scores & schedule

For the sake of this exercise, we’re going to assume Arsenal, Manchester City and Liverpool are safely in the top-four (or -five) — though, we’re suddenly less certain about the defending champions after three straight defeats), so by our count that leaves as many as eight sides jostling for one (or two) spots. Most you have come to expect, but there a few fun surprises in the mix as well…


Chelsea — 5th place, 14 points

What we like: Moises Caicedo looks like one of the best midfielders in the world and Enzo Maresca has so much attacking depth that he can change the course of any game with a couple of embarrassingly rich subs (and then do it again with one or two more). That’s a pretty good stating point to win any game any time they take the field, though it likely leaves them a bit disjointed as a unit from all the chopping and changing.

What we don’t like: No team on this list has a worse xGA (expected goals against), and only 17th- and 18th-place Burnley and Nottingham Forest are worse than the Blues (11.9). We knew that losing Levi Colwill (torn ACL) on the eve of the season would hurt Chelsea in possession, but we assumed that Benoit Badiashile and Tosin Adarabioyo could pick up the slack defensively, but they’ve both been in and out of the team due to injuries. It’s also (probably) not a great sign that half of the 16 goals they scored have come from set pieces.

Tottenham Hotspur — 6th place, 14 points

What we like: Spurs are miles and miles better defensively than at any point under Ange Postecoglou, which means they don’t (and probably won’t) get blown out and every single game comes down to one or two kicks of the ball. Thomas Frank has lifted the floor immeasurably and no one in the league relishes the chance to play them — call it the Joao Palhinha effect, if you like.

What we don’t like: The attack is, uh… a work in progress. Two months into the season, and only Mohammed Kudus has staked claim to a regular starting spot, on the right wing. Dominic Solanke has played 31 minutes (all in August); Richarlison hasn’t scored or assisted any goals in his last five appearances (all competitions); and Mathys Tel still doesn’t look like a starting no. 9. Wilson Odobert doesn’t provide much, if any, end product; Brennan Johnson is a blackhole for possession deployed on the left; and the midfield is an even darker place without Xavi Simons in it, so he’s hardly an option out wide.

Manchester United — 9th place, 13 points

What we like: They are improving under Ruben Amorim. Yes, really, finally. And no, not just because they beat Liverpool on Saturday and won at Anfield for the first time in 11 tries. Bruno Fernandes is doing a better job of holding his deeper position to help the defense, while still sneaking forward to play probing passes into the final third and penalty area. It’s hardly all down to him, but Man United haven’t been this balanced between defending and attacking in a number of years, which is precisely what Amorim’s 3-4-2-1 system is designed to do. The masterplan is coming to light, finally.

What we don’t like: They’re great on the counter-attack (as predicted) and look a real threat on set pieces, especially when Harry Maguire is back in the team, which means they have one, if not two, more ways of scoring goals than a number of teams in the Premier League this season. But — and this is a big one — it’s a real struggle for them to keep the ball and play in possession. It’s all gas with no brakes, which, again, is a massive improvement, but still going to be their achilles heel at times.

Bournemouth — 3rd place, 15 points

What we like: If not for Erling Haaland’s absurd pace to start the season, Antoine Semenyo would be the odds-on favorite for Player of the Season right now (6 goals, 3 assists). Andoni Iraola is also in charge, which apparently means it doesn’t matter how many star players leave for however many hundreds of millions of dollars, for he will simply rebuild and resume regular service in very short order.

What we don’t like: They’re smack dab in the middle of the league for xG (expected goals) and xGA, meaning they are currently over-performing at both ends of the field. Alex Jimenez and Adrien Truffert look like fantastic summer pick-ups, but Bournemouth have the same problem as Liverpool where both full backs 1) are new and still fitting in, and 2) really want to get forward and join the attack.

Sunderland — 7th place, 14 points

What we like: They’ve packed away so many points in just eight games — by mostly beating the teams they should (West Ham, Brentford, Nottingham Forest and Wolves) — that it would take an almighty 30-game collapse for the Black Cats to go down. Granit Xhaka is an incredible leader and figurehead in a newly promoted team and will certainly go down as one of the signings of the season.

What we don’t like: Their schedule is about to turn into a grueling slog between now and Christmas. Chelsea, Arsenal, Bournemouth, Liverpool, Manchester City and Newcastle make up six of their next eight fixtures. So long as they don’t get clobbered once a week for the next two months, morale should remain in an alright spot for the second half of the season.

Crystal Palace — 8th place, 13 points

What we like: Who leads the league in xG (with 16.8), nearly 2.5 than anybody else? Ask your friends that one and they might need 18 or 19 guesses to land on Palace. The Eagles haven’t been under 1.5 xG in any of their last six games. They’re a genuinely fantastic watch right now, despite losing Eberechi Eze and Michael Olise in back-to-back summers. That new contract for Oliver Glasner needs to get done yesterday. Right back Daniel Muñoz has the perpetual green light to venture forward and ranks 6th — behind the likes of Jack Grealish, Jeremy Doku, Cody Gakpo, (teammate) Adam Wharton and Yankuba Minteh — as one of the league’s top scoring chance creators. No other defender is in the top 25.

What we don’t like: Who’s last in the league in (non-penalty) goals minus xG (-5.4)? As much as they’re creating, it’s really just Jean-Philippe Mateta (5 goals after his hat trick against Bournemouth on Saturday) who’s there to put them away. Unless Eddie Nketiah suddenly begins to live up to his price tag, Palace probably can’t sustain this for the whole season, especially while juggling the Europa Conference League as well.

Brighton — 10th place, 12 points

What we like: The conveyor belt of future (and current) star talent. Seemingly, it doesn’t matter who the manager is (or the player personnel, really). They can score with just about anyone in the league (6th in xG) despite losing Joao Pedro to Chelsea in the summer and Fabian Hurzler still holding open tryouts for his starting center forward. Danny Welbeck continues to roll back the hands of time, until 18-year-old Charalampos Kostoulas finds his footing — at least, we think that’s the plan. Based on everything we’ve seen from Brighton in recent seasons, it should play out exactly as such.

What we don’t like: Forever wide open defensively. As neutrals, we thank the soaring Seagulls for this, but as always it promises to be their downfall.

Aston Villa — 11th place, 12 points

What we like: Emiliano Buendia is having a bit of a renaissance to his Villa career (3 goals, 1 assist in his last 4 appearances), highlighted by his wonderful winning goal against Spurs on Sunday, after tearing his ACL in 2023 and being loaned to Bayer Leverkusen last season. 28-year-olds don’t typically come back from loans to reclaim a place in their parent club’s team, but such is the need for creativity and flair in Unai Emery’s side, especially with Youri Tielemans out of action for the last five weeks (due back in early November).

What we don’t like: That’s all well and brilliant for Buendia, but only Burnley (5.4) rank lower in the xG table than Villa (6.3) after eight games. It’s not a chance-conversion problem so much as they’re simply not creating anything of real merit. Even in their ongoing three-game winning streak (7 goals scored), they’ve barely eclipsed 1.0 xG in two of the three and scored two worldies on 0.37 to beat Spurs. Again, “unsustainable” is the word that comes to mind.