Yes, this is an American-based site but we promise there’s no bias when we write the following words about the 2026 World Cup draw’s winners and losers:
The No. 1 winner is the United States men’s national team, and there’s a distance to No. 2.
MORE — USMNT’s draw analyzed | Very early World Cup predictions
It’s unquestionable that the USMNT did about as well as it could do with their lot in Group D, drawing two teams they’ve played in the past six months. That number will grow to three if Turkiye deliver on their favorite status in the UEFA second round of qualifying come March.
It’s all in our World Cup draw winners and losers. Read on!
World Cup draw winner: The United States men’s national team
Mauricio Pochettino’s men beat Paraguay on November 15, Australia almost exactly a month before that, and faced Turkiye on June 7. The Yanks lost that game 2-1 but played miserably and hung within a goal.
They brought in Pochettino to be a tactical difference maker, and now they’re able to give him 180-270 minutes of “This is them vs us” for planning for purposes.
If Turkiye beat Romania and then either Slovakia or Kosovo, they’ll be the top-ranked FIFA team on the USMNT’s World Cup docket at 25th. Slovakia are 45th, Romania 47th, and Kosovo 80th. Australia are 26th and Paraguay 39th.
Winning Group D would mean a Round of 32 match against a third-placed team from another group. That’s now a necessity, but with as many as three teams coming out of a group and the U.S. on home soil, well... getting trouped would be nearly as embarrassing as their 2018 World qualifying flameout.
Huge winners.
CHESTER, PENNSYLVANIA - NOVEMBER 15: Mauricio Pochettino, head coach of United States, gives instructions to Tim Ream #13 during an international friendly match between United States and Paraguay at Subaru Park on November 15, 2025 in Chester, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Mark Smith/ISI Photos/USSF/Getty Images)
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World Cup draw loser: Scotland
We love the magic that was Scotland’s run to the World Cup and they have pluck as well as skill in the team.
Yet being drawn with Brazil and Morocco feels like “Let’s hope to be one of the eight best third-place teams” is their path to the knockout rounds.
With Haiti first, Scotland does have a good chance to take three points and put a foot in the knockout rounds but it’s going to be a tall order after that.
Steve Clarke did an incredible job in pushing Scotland into the tournament, but they were in a weak qualifying group and nearly threw away their shot by losing to Greece on the final matchday, given a reprieve when Denmark shockingly drew at home to Belarus (Denmark beat Belarus 6-0 in Hungary the previous month).
Now if the Scotland that delivered a purple patch of Nations League wins over Croatia, Poland, and Greece shows up, there’s hope. But there’s also the memory of EURO 2024 and one point from a tough group with Germany, Switzerland, and Hungary. The World Cup group looks more like the EURO slate than the Nations League, doesn’t it?
World Cup draw winner: Mexico
The tournament’s co-hosts dodge the top teams from every pot.
El Tri open with South Africa at altitude in Azteca, then get their trickiest test with South Korea before another elevated Azteca experience versus Denmark, Czechia, North Macedonia, or Republic of Ireland.
Any American fans knows the challenges of Azteca for good opposition, and Mexico will likely have the biggest home-crowd advantage of any of the hosts.
Winning Group A is necessary for Mexico to stay in Mexico City for the Round of 32 and, hopefully, the Round of 16. Their path to the top of the group could be much worse than it looks at first blush.
World Cup draw loser: France, Senegal, Norway, well... all of Group I
Even with third-place teams getting through, there’s almost nothing to like about this group for any non-neutral.
France are loaded, yes, but they have to open with Senegal while Norway likely racks up goals the inter-confederation playoff Path 2 winner. That said, that group will be planning to park every bus they can find and will have plenty of experience doing so — especially if it’s CONMEBOL’s Bolivia.
Senegal are a possible dark horse to win the tournament but certainly wanted to avoid a World Cup where a winless run is possible.
As for Bolivia, Suriname, and Iraq, well... at least you get to go out against the very best in the world!
World Cup draw winner: Argentina
The tried and tested tournament tigers of Argentina will be favored to romp through Group J.
Algeria are no busts but they’re a bit long and the tooth beyond Amine Gouiri, Mohamed Amoura, and Rayan Ait-Nouri.
Austria have savvy in their ranks but this is their first World Cup in a generation and their leaders are well into their 30s.
Jordan are one of the beneficiaries of the expanded tournament, taking their spot via second place in a very weak Group B of Asian qualifying (and still barely edging Iraq).
Yes, Argentina lost to Saudi Arabia in the 2022 World Cup opener so any upset is possible. They also didn’t lose another game in Qatar.
World Cup draw loser: Ecuador
Led by Moises Caicedo and a potential golden generation of Tricolor, Ecuador is an impressive group that has a powerhouse and two absolute wild cards on their docket.
They’ll open with an Ivory Coast that won AFCON in 2023 and then tangle with tricky Curacao. Anything less than six points puts them in a tricky spot with Germany on the final day.
