The sixth annual Commissioner’s Cup Championship is now upon us. After an almost 50 game slate for the Cup that took place during the first two and a half weeks of June, the New York Liberty and the Las Vegas Aces will match up in the Championship game in Brooklyn for the first time.
This is yet another chapter in the storybook rivalry that has developed between these two teams in the past few years. The last time New York and Las Vegas matched up in the Commissioner’s Cup championship game was in 2023, and it ended with the Liberty taking home their first trophy in franchise history.
But the Aces had the last laugh in October, defeating the Liberty in the WNBA Finals just months later. And then 2024, the Liberty’s championship season, the two teams battled it out once again in the semifinals with New York getting their revenge and moving on to the Finals.
Could this be a preview of the 2026 WNBA Finals?
“I think a lot of people obviously see it as just like ‘oh a measuring stick of what it could look like in the playoffs,'“ Aces star A’ja Wilson said on Sunday. “But I feel like we get that every single game, especially when it comes to New York.”
Wilson called the environment in Brooklyn a reminder of what it’s like to be playing deep into the playoffs in September and October. “I don’t want to say hostile, because it’s really not hostile when we go to Brooklyn,” she said. “It’s just a great playoff atmosphere.”
The Aces have won four of their last five games with the one loss in that span coming at the hands of the Liberty. New York comes into this game having lost four of their last seven games and will be returning home after a four game road trip. They’ve lost two games in a row to the Seattle Storm and the Golden State Valkyries, and looked particularly out of gas after defeating the Aces this past Tuesday.
“I think the toughest part is that we fly cross country tomorrow and have to play the next day,” Liberty’s Breanna Stewart said on Sunday after falling 76-67 to Golden State. “We’re very familiar with Vegas, obviously, knowing that there’s going to be some tweaks and changes to their scout and also ours, but yeah, quick turnaround.”
Prior to what will for sure have a playoff feel at Barclays Center on Tuesday night, our Cole Huff and Jackie Powell preview the matchup and key storylines to watch for in the WNBA’s sixth Commissioner’s Cup championship game.
Who will come out on top and get to split the $500,000 prize pool and make an almost $30,000 donation for their charity of choice?
What is the most obvious challenge each team will face?
Cole Huff: For Las Vegas, depth is the biggest challenge. Chennedy Carter returned on Sunday and, if available Tuesday, will surely add more than a wrinkle on the offensive end. But even with her presence, who else can Head Coach Becky Hammon really rely on? Jewell Loyd is the obvious answer based on her resume, but with so many highs and lows from her throughout her time in Vegas, there’s no obvious way to predict what type of performance she may land on Tuesday. From there, it gets tricky. Will Dana Evans make her season debut? Which backup center will see the floor? Can Kierstan Bell have an impact? Neither question can be answered with much conviction at this point, which is why “depth” is the biggest challenge facing Las Vegas.
On New York’s side, health is the most obvious challenge. Satou Sabally’s status is currently TBD, as she remains in the league’s concussion protocol following the elbow she took to the face that caused her to exit prematurely in last week’s matchup with Las Vegas. She’s missed the last two contests, which hurt New York’s offense. But if available, her length and versatile scoring ability at the forward position add firepower and lineup creativity on both ends of the floor, theoretically presenting even more challenges for an Aces team that already struggled with this particular opponent when Sabally wasn’t yet on the roster. Tuesday’s game becomes more difficult for New York if she remains in the protocols and off the court.
Jackie Powell: Cole’s points are very well taken, and some of the first that come to my mind. But I want to take a bit more of a statistical approach rather than a personnel one.
One of the most stark patterns that comes to mind when looking at all of the Aces’ five losses this season has been about their defense. They’ve averaged an 118.9 defensive rating in all their losses this season, which is something that both Wilson and Aces head coach Becky Hammon have uttered ad-nauseum this season. For Las Vegas it will always start with their defense. Also on the Las Vegas side, I’ll be looking at how aggressive they are getting to the line. That’s also been an area where they’ve struggled in their five losses. The Aces average 20.1 attempted free throws per game, but in their losses that number decreases by 42.3% to 11.6 free throws a game.
Now for the Liberty, the most obvious challenge they face is taking care of the basketball and the possession game, and those two are critically connected. The Liberty on average turn the ball over 15.4 times per game, fourth worst in the league. While some of these turnovers are based on the fact that this is a team that passes the ball the most in the league, there have been times when Liberty players are over-passing.
Who is each team’s X-Factor and why?
Huff: Despite scoring 19 points and leading the Aces in scoring last week against this same Liberty team, I’m still rolling with Jackie Young as the X-Factor for the Aces. And even with her recent individual success in that aforementioned loss, the difference in her production between wins and losses this season is still drastic. There’s an 8.3-point distinction in points per game, the assists fall from 7.5 to 4.8, and her 48.9/44.9/93.2 shooting splits are vastly greater in victories than the 34.8/17.4/0.0 inefficiency shooting splits in defeats. In simpler phrasing, Young has been at an All-Star level this season in wins and something far beneath it when Las Vegas has lost games.
You can flip a coin between Satou Sabally and Sabrina Ionescu for New York’s X-Factor. But since the Liberty handled the Aces fairly convincingly last week, mostly without the services of Sabally, I’m rolling with Ionescu as the X-Factor. Further, the former first-overall pick has a unique knack for carving up the Aces — whether we date back to the 31-point game she hung on Vegas in 2023 or recall the most recent season-high 16-point double-double in their matchup last week, there’s something she likes about facing this opponent. If history is any indicator of what’s to come, Ionescu has a high possibility of impacting Tuesday’s game in a positive way for New York.
Powell: I agree with Cole on the Liberty side. It remains so strange to say that Ionescu is this team’s X-Factor when she’s one of the team’s stars, but since she missed a month of the season, it’s taken her some time to really find where she fits in this offense. While that’s concerning to hear from one of the team’s franchise players, it reflects the situation where the Liberty’s coaching staff had to build a lot of what they were doing around the Jones and Stewart partnership and the backcourt production had to be filled in by committee. For the Liberty to really take what they do to a whole other level, Ionescu is going to have to find her place in the offense and feel confident in it. Her ability to nail a post entry pass, and find her teammates before the defense can react was missing during her absence.
For the Aces, I think Chennedy Carter production is going to be key. The Liberty put together a very effective scout against the Aces and Wilson without Carter available. So how is New York going to guard the fastest guard in the league especially when their legs will still be quite tired coming off their four game road trip? New York struggled to contain Storm rookie Flau’jae Johnson on her drives and then Kailia Charles, the Valkyries’ leading scorer from Sunday, also got most of her points in the paint.
LAS VEGAS, NV - JUNE 23: Sabrina Ionescu #20 of the New York Liberty passes the ball during the game against the Las Vegas Aces on June 23, 2026 at Michelob ULTRA Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2026 NBAE (Photo by David Becker/NBAE via Getty Images)
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The Aces will win the Commissioner’s Cup Championship if…
Huff: If A’ja Wilson is the best player on the floor for those 40 minutes. She’s had some notable struggles over the past few years’ matchups with the Liberty (relative to the bar she’s set as a four-time MVP), including last week in the 11-point loss when she totaled 16 points and nine rebounds on 7-of-18 shooting — such subpar performances have been reasons why New York has routinely bested Las Vegas during the regular season. The Liberty’s length in the frontcourt offers some unique challenges. Still, we’ve seen Wilson have some dominant performances against New York, specifically in their 2023 Finals matchup. She’ll likely need to kick it into a much higher gear than she did the last two times these teams shared the floor if the Aces want to leave New York with the prize.
Powell: Their defense is locked into their scout and the Aces score at least 80 points. In all of their losses this season, the Aces have on average scored 78 points. This offensive Juggernaut has to score to win.
The Liberty will win the Commissioner’s Cup Championship if…
Huff: If they round back into form on the defensive end. Over the past five games, where they’ve posted a 1-4 record, the Liberty’s defense has been about middle-of-the-pack compared to its near-top-of-the-league form prior to that stretch. The issues have been in the interior, where opponents are feasting in the paint and also getting more free-throw attempts than previously — two things the Aces seem to prioritize on the offensive end. If the Liberty can once again take away those strengths from the Aces, they should find themselves in a good spot in regard to the final result of the game.
Powell: Cole has nailed it here. In the past two seasons the Liberty have preached this idea of being able to play out of their defense in transition and take advantage of how well Stewart can use her motor to run the floor. Those opportunities only become possible if the Liberty get stops.
Also, this team has a much greater chance of winning when Ionescu feels more empowered to set up the offense and is aggressive on the glass. She recorded 10 rebounds in the team’s 87-76 win over the Aces last week. Her best game this season came against the Aces, a team she often gets up to play for.
Prediction time: Who will win this game? Who will win the Commissioner’s Cup MVP?
Huff: The Liberty wins this one. They’ve typically taken care of business on their home court when these two teams have linked up over the past few years. New York is also coming home from a disappointing four-game road trip to the West Coast, where it lost three of four games, including a 67-point offensive showing in Sunday’s loss to Golden State. I’d expect that the return home, combined with the desire to get the bad taste out of their mouths from the disappointing road trip, will be enough to get the home team’s juices flowing. Breanna Stewart is due for a big game, and even if she doesn’t put up video-game type numbers, she’ll do enough to get the Liberty back on track and capture the Commissioner’s Cup MVP.
Powell: The Aces will win the 2026 Commissioner’s Cup Championship game and the Liberty’s struggles — turning over the ball and a lack of lineup chemistry in a completely different offensive and defensive system — will continue to plague them. But, New York will play with a little bit more “heart” and something that both New York stars in Stewart and Jones have preached has been a problem as of late. The Liberty are driven by their charity the African American Policy Forum, an organization that played a critical role during the WNBA’s 2020 bubble season. I predict that Wilson will struggle with the Liberty’s length, and as a result the Aces will need to turn to their supporting cast and mainly their guard play. This is a bit of a wildcard prediction here, but the Commissioner’s Cup MVP will go to Carter, who possesses a high level of athleticism that will be quite an undertaking for the Liberty to guard.
