Vaughn Dalzell breaks down how to bet the 2023 MLB Opening Day, featuring the Braves vs Nationals, plus Boston Red Sox against the Baltimore Orioles.
Braves (-1.5) at Nationals: O/U 7.5
The Atlanta Braves have lost four-straight Opening Day games but look to change that versus Patrick Corbin and the Washington Nationals.
Corbin has struggled versus Atlanta over his career, but especially since 2020. In the last nine starts against Atlanta, Corbin has allowed four or more earned runs in seven of nine games and the Braves scored 60 runs over that stretch (6.6 runs per game).
The Nationals vet permitted 15 earned runs in three starts with at least one inning pitched versus the Braves last season. Corbin is mostly a fastball pitcher (62% of pitches) and had some of the worst K%, BB% and xwOBA during his 2022 campaign.
I expect those struggles for Corbin to rollover after allowing 21 hits over four games and 18.0 innings of Spring Training (4.50 ERA). Atlanta has seven hitters who have at least 10 plate appearances versus Corbin and the Braves enter 2023 with one of the deadliest lineups in all of baseball.
Atlanta has scored at least five runs in six out the last nine meetings with Washington and five of the past seven, plus four or more runs in seven out of the last nine.
Washington has allowed five or more runs on Opening Day in consecutive seasons and four or more in three-straight. Atlanta has scored five or more runs in two of the past three Opening Days, but lost four consecutive Opening Day games.
I grabbed Atlanta’s Team Total Over 4.5 runs at -130 odds on DraftKings and BetMGM. The O/U 5.0 is +100 on FanDuel. The Braves should win and roll, but in case they are upset, Atlanta can still hit the Over on this Team Prop without winning. Atlanta hit an MLB-best .282 during Spring Training.
Pick: Braves Team Total Over 4.5 (1u)
Red Sox (-130) vs. Orioles (+110): O/U 9.0
This is a fun Opening Day matchup between one of the most exciting squads from last year and one of the more underwhelming teams.
Baltimore was that exciting team finishing above .500 for the first time since 2016, while Boston finished under .500 and in last place of the AL East for the second time in the past three years.
Boston lost Xander Bogaerts and the 2023 pitching rotation is underwhelming, which has resulted in Boston’s lowest expected win total (78.5) since 1997. The hype around the Red Sox isn’t great, while the Orioles and their fan base are excited and love Opening Day.
That’s because the Orioles are Opening Day sweethearts at 11-7 on the ML in the last 18 profiting $575 for the $100 bettor, the third-most in that span.
The Orioles bring up Gunnar Henderson from the minors, who is supposed to be the next big thing and signed Adam Frazier, Kyle Gibson and Cole Irvin.
Boston added Turner, and plenty of other veterans such as Adam Duvall, Corey Kluber, Kenley Jansen and Chris Martin, while bringing up Masataka Yoshida from the minors. On paper, Boston looks to be another .500 team.
The top of the Orioles’ lineup battles the Red Sox pretty well. Baltimore trouts out Cedric Mullins, Adley Rutschman, Ryan Mountcastle versus Boston’s Alex Verdugo, Rafael Devers and Justin Turner.
The pitching matchup is pretty even between Kyle Gibson versus Corey Kluber, but Gibson looked slightly better in Spring Training and Baltimore was the better hitting team (.272 to .246) with far fewer strikeouts (270 to 314).
I expect Baltimore to take a step forward this season, while Boston could take a step back or stay in place. I played Baltimore at +110 on the ML to get the Opening Day win at Fenway Park.
Pick: Orioles ML (1u)
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