Vaughn Dalzell breaks down his best bet in the Colorado Rockies vs Atlanta Braves matchup, a strikeout prop on Jared Shuster.
Jared Shuster O/U 4.5 Strikeouts vs. Rockies
I will run it back on a Braves’ pitcher as the road Rockies are normally a good fade when it comes to strikeout props.
Jared Shuster‘s made four home starts this season and totaled 0, 4, 5 and 7 strikeouts in those games, going 2-2 to the Over 4.5 Ks. After zero strikeouts in his previous start against Washington over 5.0 innings, Shuster has a positive matchup with the road Rockies.
I played AJ Smith-Shawver Over 4.5 Ks yesterday and he recorded six, cashing the Over and making it seven-straight starting pitchers at home to record five or more strikeouts against Colorado and 12 of the previous 14 (85.7%)!
However, Shuster is a LHP. On the year, Colorado has struck out five or more times to the starting LHP in 9 out of 12 (75%) road games and five-straight. The past nine LHP at home totaled at least four Ks versus Colorado, so Shuster has a good chance for at least four Ks.
Colorado has the fourth-worst batting average versus LHP (.229), the third-most strikeouts (193) and 9th-fewest walks (50). The Rockies road numbers are very similar, so give me Shuster Over 4.5 strikeouts at home.
Shuster’s pitched at least 5.0 innings in five-straight games and allowed three or fewer earned runs in each game during that span. I expect 5.0 to 6.0 innings from Shuster and at least five Ks at home.
I played Shuster Over 4.5 Ks at +120 odds and would go down to -110 on this.
Pick: Jared Shuster Over 4.5 Ks (Risk 1u)
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