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Zach Eflin O/U 4.5 Strikeouts vs. Mets
Zach Eflin will make his third road start of the season, this time versus a familiar opponent.
The Mets saw Eflin twice last season and managed 15 hits, three earned runs and 11 strikeouts over 12.0 innings. Eflin lasted 6.0 innings in both meetings and hit four Ks in the previous outing and seven in the first.
Over Eflin’s career, he is 4-2 to the Under 4.5 strikeouts at New York and 7-6 to the Under 4.5 Ks overall versus the Mets, so clearly, he struggles more at Citi Field.
Eflin has 115 plate appearances versus this current Mets team, excluding Max Scherzer, per baseball savant. Eflin has 23 strikeouts to five walks and 31 hits along with a .282 OBA versus the Mets.
Six different Mets hitters have at least 10 plate appearances and own 17 combined strikeouts to five walks over 90 plate appearances.
New York has plenty of experience for Eflin and with him on the road (5.59 ERA, .341 OBA), I will fade the Phillies pitcher again.
This season, the Mets are 10-7 to the Under 4.5 strikeouts (58.8%) versus starting right-hand pitchers. New York is 13-9 to the Under 4.5 Ks versus starting pitchers overall (59%).
I grabbed Eflin Under 4.5 Ks for -150 odds and would play out to -165.
Pick: Zach Eflin Under 4.5 Strikeouts (1u)
Michael Lorenzen O/U 4.5 Strikeouts vs. White Sox
Michael Lorenzen will make his second road start of the season and since 2018.
Lorenzen has started three games this season with one on the road. In that road trip to Houston, Lorenzen lasted 3.1 innings with four hits, four earned runs, two walks and two strikeouts over 79 pitches.
After that start, Lorenzen totaled four walks to three strikeouts in 6.0 innings of three-hit and no score baseball versus Cleveland. NBC’s player prop model projects 5.0 innings and four strikeouts for Loreznen.
Here is how performed this season in his return to being a staring pitcher.
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Lorenzen is allowing LHB to hit .350 this yea with a 1.135 OPS this season. While he has dominated RHB and struck out 11 of 12 hitters to RHB compared to one LHB, the White Sox are tough.
Chicago will throw out all three LHB (one switch) versus Lorenzen and start six RHB.
The White Sox have held 12 out of 15 RHB on the season to four or fewer strikeouts (80%), per statmuse. Only Shane Bieber, Matt Brash and Bailey Ober hit five-plus strikeouts versus the White Sox.
Let’s fade Lorenzen Under 4.5 strikeouts (-143) out to -160. I expect no more than 5.0 innings here for his second road start.
Pick: Michael Lorenzen Under 4.5 Strikeouts (1u)
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