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MLB K Props, May 16: Fade Alex Wood and Jon Gray vs. Rockies, Angels

Alex Wood

Alex Wood

Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports

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Jon Gray O/U 5.5 Strikeouts vs. Angels

Jon Gray will try to replicate what Frankie Montas did yesterday versus the Angels (12 Ks), but that’s not Jon.

The Rangers pitcher has stayed Under 5.5 Ks in all four starts this season with four, four, three and four Ks (15 Ks) over 16.1 innings pitched compared to seven walks and 10 earned runs.

He has struggled through the order for the first time with a .828 OPS and .233 OBA. He has only faced two hitters for a third time and I doubt that happens today.

Gray has yet to surpass 5.0 innings or 20 batters faced, which is good for an Under 5.5 Ks if he faces 20 or fewer batters (requires a 20+ K%).

Gray has 25 plate appearances versus the Angels current hitters and owns one strikeout, two walks, one home run and six hits allowed for a .261 OBA and .565 SLG, per baseball savant.

Gray is tossing his four-seam fastball 50% of the time and ranks in the 12th percentile for fastball spin rate and below the average for xwOBA.

Jon Gray

Jon Gray

This will be his first home start of the season, so maybe that and Montas’ big day is why they are giving us a 5.5 rather than 4.5, but I took my shot on Gray Under 5.5 Ks at -122 odds.

I would play Gray out to -150 odds.

Pick: Jon Gray Under 5.5 Ks (1u)

Alex Wood O/U 4.5 Strikeouts vs. Rockies

Alex Wood will make his second straight start versus the Rockies.

Wood finished the previous game with 5.1 innings, four strikeouts and two walks over 104 pitches. That start was in San Francisco, which makes a significant difference.

By now, we all should know how Colorado hits much differently on the road than at home. The Rockies are hitting .284 this season at home (1st) and .229 on the road (17th).

In four more home games than away games, Colorado only has four more Ks at home, so much better strikeout numbers.

LHP have gone 6-0 to the Under 4.5 strikeouts at Coors Field this season and starting pitching is 16-3 to the Under 4.5 strikeouts at Colorado, per statmuse.

Colorado has scored 19 runs, drew 11 walks and totaled 15 strikeouts to those six starting LHP.

LHP at Coors

LHP at Coors

Wood has gone Under 4.5 Ks in three of his last four starts in Colorado and a career 20.3 K% versus current Rockies hitters over 133 plate appearances, per baseball savant.

The current hitters own a .293 OBA and five players have at least 13 plate appearances with three or fewer strikeouts each. Those five are Charlie Blackmon, Ryan McMahon, Garrett Hampson, C.J. Cron and Elias Diaz.

I grabbed Wood Under 4.5 Ks for -126 odds and would play this out to -150.

Pick: Alex Wood Under 4.5 Strikeouts (1u)

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