Skip navigation
Sign up to follow your favorites on all your devices.
Sign up

MLB K Props, May 20: Fade Zach Thompson, Julio Urias, Ranger Suarez

Zach Thompson

Zach Thompson

Jon Durr-USA TODAY Sports

Editor’s Note: Don’t just bet your favorite sports. LIVE YOUR BET LIFE! Get started today at PointsBet with two risk-free bets up to $2,000. Bet now!

Zach Thompson O/U 3.5 Strikeouts vs. Cardinals

This is one of my favorite plays of the day. As a Pirates fan, I have been waiting to hop back on some Pittsburgh props, and today is a great day for that.

Let’s fade the 6-foot-7 250-lbs RHP Zach Thompson as the Buccos host the NL Central foes St. Louis Cardinals. The Cardinals aren’t as great as the White Sox, but let’s be honest, no one is. However, St. Louis has been outstanding this year at plate discipline.

The Cardinals are 12-7 to the Under 3.5 Ks over the last 19 starts. St. Louis held four straight RHP Under 3.5 Ks until three consecutive pitchers hit four or more Ks, going by the names of Max Scherzer, Taijuan Walker and Trevor Williams (weird).

St. Louis held Chris Bassitt to three Ks over 6.1 innings yesterday after permitting four Ks to Max Scherzer over 5.2 innings, so they are trending in the right direction versus some very talented pitching.

Thompson isn’t a strikeout guy and baseball savant will tell you that. The 28-year-old ranks in the 23rd percentile for K% and 27th percentile in walk %. He has never faced the Cardinals before, making for a boom or bust start. I am going with a bust.

The Pirates youngster is 4-1 to the Under 3.5 Ks in the past five games (80%) and 5-2 to the Under on the season (71.4%). Keep fading, Thompson.

I grabbed the Under 3.5 Ks at -128 odds and would play this out to -150.

Pick: Zach Thompson Under 3.5 Ks (1.5u)

Editor’s Note: The Mets-Rockies game has since been postponed.

Carlos Carrasco O/U 4.5 Strikeouts vs. Rockies

Can you believe that at 35-years-old Carlos Carrasco has never faced the Rockies or pitched at Coors Field?

That is crazy and something we are going to take advantage of.

Carrasco exited his last start after 4.1 innings and 77 pitches. He was hit eight times and allowed four earned runs with two strikeouts and one walk versus the Mariners. In five of Carrasco’s seven starts this season, he has recorded at least five or more strikeouts, but we get a -145 to the Under 4.5 Ks here! Very telling.

In his three road starts this year, Carrasco has a 6.19 ERA and .281 OBA over 16.0 innings. He recorded three, five and five strikeouts for 13 total at Washington twice (5, 5 Ks) and St. Louis (3 Ks).

Colorado hits .286 at home, number one in the MLB, compared to .229 on the road, which is 17th. Carrasco’s strikeout numbers are dropping drastically the second and third time through the order, so as long as the Rockies can stay discipline yet aggressive for a few innings, we should have a winner.

The Rockies have hosted 15 starting RHP this season and 11 of them stayed Under 4.5 Ks (73.3%) and 13 Under 5.5 strikeouts (86.6%). Below are the 15 starting RHP that pitched at Coors in 2022, per statmuse.

Coors Field

Coors Field

17 out of 22 total starting pitchers stayed Under 4.5 Ks at Coors Field this season (77.2%). I grabbed Carrasco’s Under 4.5 strikeouts at -145 odds.

I would play it out to -160 for 1 unit or risk 2 units at any price.

Pick: Carlos Carrasco Under 4.5 Strikeouts (1.5u)

PointsBet is our Official Sports Betting Partner and we may receive compensation if you place a bet on PointsBet for the first time after clicking our links. CO, IL, IN, IA, MI, NJ, NY, PA, WV, and VA. only. 21+. T&C apply. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER