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We’ve come to the Game 6 of the World Series between the Atlanta Braves and Houston Astros, and there’s a ton to unpack here. With Atlanta ahead 3-2, this game could put the Braves over the top and give them their fourth title in franchise history. While it’s a hard one to call, I do have a play on this game and will waste no more time in getting into it now.
Atlanta Braves (+115) vs. Houston Astros (-136) Total: 8.5
Not much has changed here for the Astros. While their bullpen continues to shove, it is on the brink of a collapse. Houston’s relievers have now pitched 25 2/3 innings in this series and 75 2/3 in the postseason. While Atlanta’s begun working its bullpen hard in recent games, it’s less of a concern given Max Fried will pitch for the Braves.
It’s been a theme for me this postseason, but I do not trust Luis Garcia. The second-year flamethrower has some potential and pitched well in the early going this year, but fell off a cliff after June. He had one start that really impressed you, which was against the Mariners, and the rest were either bad or against teams out of the playoff picture.
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Garcia walked over two hitters on average in his last six starts of the season and carried those issues over into the postseason. He allowed five earned runs in each of his first two playoff starts, then after spinning a gem against Boston in Game 7 of the ALCS was right back to his old self early in the World Series.
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Garcia is not only struggling with walks, but he has also been allowing a high number of fly balls this postseason. Against a Braves team that is now going to the hitter-friendly Minute Maid Park, and ranked in the top three of Home Run-to-Fly Ball ratio this year, that’s a scary thought.
Garcia is too weak to trust at the moment, and with Fried going for Atlanta with solid numbers on the road and in the second half, there’s a clear path to victory here for the Braves.
Edge: Braves +115
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