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Hey there, we’ve got another incredible week of baseball to play in the big leagues. After a small slate on Monday, we get the official start to the week on Tuesday. Here are two plays I like for tonight.
Texas Rangers (-105) vs. Cleveland Guardians (-115) Total: 8.5
The Rangers have quietly established some confidence over the last month, but despite that they’re incredibly disrespected here on the road in Cleveland.
Texas ranks 10th offensively over the last two weeks with a 121 wRC+ and boasts a much better 21.2% strikeout rate than we’ve seen in previous points in the season. Marcus Semien is finally starting to hit, and this looks like the semi-decent offense it was supposed to be heading into the year.
Just about any offense looks semi-decent against Cal Quantrill, whose luck is beginning to catch up with him. The right-hander has allowed five runs in his last two outings combined and owns a 4.27 xERA in nine starts this year. He’s striking out just 15.1% of hitters and walking 8.7%.
The Rangers have struggled with strikeouts and also have struggled to get runners on via the walk, so this is a picture-perfect spot for their offense.
Then, there’s Jon Gray, whose peripherals are pointing the opposite way of Quantrill. Cleveland is 21st in wRC+ over the last 14 days and can’t really hold a candle to Texas here.
Edge: Rangers -105
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New York Mets (+110) vs. San Diego Padres (-131) Total: 7.5
I’m sorry to all those who, like me, have enjoyed watching Yu Darvish dominate for the last decade. I know we all like to avoid thinking about the passing of time, but we are all older than we were when Darvish was good — and so is he.
I wouldn’t call Darvish washed up, but he’s a much different pitcher these days. He’s primarily a fastball pitcher whose velocity on those pitches ranks in the bottom 20% of the league. His once-dominant arsenal which produced eye-popping strikeout totals is in a depressing state. He’s struck out just 19.8% of hitters this season and largely pitches to contact.
That’s pretty scary when you consider the problems Darvish continues to have in the exit velocity department, allowing a hard-hit ball on almost 39% of batted balls. The Mets are excellent at getting the bat on the ball and have recently entered into a power surge, so this is probably the last team you want to back Darvish against.
Taijuan Walker starts here for New York, and while I actually look for good spots to fade him, this could be a rare spot for the journeyman. He, too, pitches to contact these days, but the Padres rank eighth in ground ball rate this year and have been rather unassuming in the power department ranking 29th in barrels per plate appearance.
The road dogs are barking tonight.
Edge: Mets +110
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