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We’ve got four games on our hands this Saturday as we power through the Division Series in both leagues. Here’s how I see two of them shaking out.
New York Yankees (-120) vs. Cleveland Guardians (+100) Total: 6.5
The Yankees’ offense hasn’t exactly been on fire to start this series, but things could be a lot worse than an average of three runs per game. We should also point out that New York was able to get several opportunities with runners in scoring position all day long on Friday and was rather unlucky to come away with just two runs.
Triston McKenzie did shut down the Yankees in his only start against them this year, but the tale of his season on the whole is best told through the lens of his peripherals. The righty pitched to a 3.54 xERA and 9.8% barrel rate only to be bailed out by some timely strikeouts and good defensive play. Even with that, a 25.6% strikeout rate can only be considered marginally above average.
The Guardians’ offense, through two series, can be classified as significantly worse than the Yankees’ and they’ll have to against a tremendous arm in Luis Severino who, in a short time in the bigs this year, looked to be better than ever. I think we’ll see the Yankees take back control here.
Edge: Yankees -120
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Los Angeles Dodgers (-120) vs. San Diego Padres (+100) Total: 7.5
Not so fast. The Dodgers won’t be eliminated, at least not here. They’ve got too much offensive talent and really were unfortunate to scratch across just one run on Friday night. They consistently got to Blake Snell, the best pitcher on the Padres, and stranded many runners on base. The best bet on Saturday is that that luck will turn.
Tyler Anderson was absolutely amazing this season with a 2.57 ERA and 3.10 xERA, ranking inside the top 10% of the league in hard-hit rate, walk rate and xwOBA on contact. The Padres’ offense was rather quiet last night outside of a couple loud hits and they’re 16th in wRC+ to lefties this year.
I’m going to be betting on the better offense here, by a wide margin, and I think Anderson is at worst comparable to Joe Musgrove. The Dodgers are out of rhythm right now but it’s only a matter of time before the best offense in baseball figures it out.
Edge: Dodgers -120