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We’ve got a packed slate of baseball to bet on Friday and I’ve picked out two late games which I’m seeing plenty of value in. Let’s get to them.
New York Yankees (-120) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (+100) Total: 8
Look, I don’t really like betting on Frankie Montas but we’re going to have to do it here. Not only have the Yankees been better of late at the dish, Montas has figured some things out as well with a 3.38 ERA in September and overall some better innings in the last four outings.
Montas and his .394 xSLG should play very well here against a Brewers team which is searching for power and down in the dumps over the last two weeks with a 96 wRC+. Adrian Houser isn’t going to be helping out much considering his 4.67 xERA and with the Yankees’ improved play on offense. New York is up at a 129 wRC+ in the last week and looking as strong as it has all throughout the second half.
The Brewers profile somewhat well against Montas with their low-ish ground ball rate, but a high 24.6% strikeout rate in the last week isn’t going to do them any favors against a guy who they’ll need to be making contact off of to benefit from his weaknesses.
Edge: Yankees -120
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San Diego Padres (-180) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (+155) Total: 8.5
If there’s one thing the Diamondbacks can’t do, it’s hit lefties. They’re down in 26th when it comes to wRC+ in that split, and they’ve struck out in 23% of plate appearances against southpaws. A .282 BABIP concerns me even more, considering how awful Arizona has been in these spots.
So, I’ll hold my breath here and trust Blake Snell to navigate Arizona with his solid 31.3% strikeout rate and 3.56 xERA, which should signal some improvement is on the horizon.
I definitely don’t want to bet on the Padres bats, though, after a terrible showing against rookie Drey Jameson last night and considering their 19th-place standing against lefties. This smells like an under.
Edge: Under 8.5
