Vaughn Dalzell breaks down his favorite pitcher props for the Tuesday slate, including Alek Manoah, Patrick Sandoval, and Aaron Nola, plus a ML Parlay on the Cubs and Mariners.
Aaron Nola O/U 6.5 Strikeouts vs. Brewers
Only one pitcher has recorded seven or more strikeouts versus the Brewers in July (Rich Hill, 8 Ks), but Milwaukee hasn’t faced many aces.
The best pitchers the Brewers faced this month were either Marcus Stroman (6 Ks) or Justin Steele (5 Ks), so Nola will be a challenge.
Nola owns 27 strikeouts to 23 hits over 102 plate appearances versus current Brewers’ hitters for a 26.5 K% and .245 OBA. Four different Milwaukee hitters including Christian Yelich (25.8%), William Contreras (43.8%), Ramiel Tapia (30.8%), and Willy Adames (33.3%) all have strikeout percentages above 25%.
The Phillies’ ace has much better numbers at home (3.40 ERA, .200 OBA) and averages more than one strikeout per inning. Nola’s totaled 18 strikeouts in his past two games versus the Rays and Marlins, plus owns one of the highest chase rates in baseball.
I played the Over 6.5 Ks at -135 odds and would go out to -150 and Over 7.5 Ks for a half-unit at +100 or better.
Pick: Aaron Nola Over 6.5 Strikeouts (1u)
Alek Manoah O/U 4.5 Strikeouts vs. Padres
Alek Manoah made his long-awaited return after a month off and getting demoted after the worst first half of a season in his career.
In Manoah’s return against the Tigers, the Blue Jays’ RHP went 6.0 innings with five hits allowed, one earned run, and eight strikeouts to zero walks.
While Detroit’s lineup is no comparison to San Diego’s, Manoah’s pitch selection and control looked night and day compared to his only June start.
At +102 odds, Manoah Over 4.5 Strikeouts is of value. Manoah has never faced the Padres but has pitched to five different hitters who are currently on San Diego’s roster.
Those five hitters, Juan Soto, Xander Bogaerts, Gary Sanchez, Matt Carpenter, and Rouged Odur have a combined four hits to 10 strikeouts and six walks for a .125 batting average and 25.6 K%.
Pick: Alek Manoah Over 4.5 Strikeouts (1u)
Patrick Sandoval O/U 4.5 Strikeouts vs. Yankees
In two career starts versus New York, Sandoval recorded five and seven strikeouts over 11.0 combined innings, eight walks, and seven earned runs.
This Yankees’ offense is coming off a poor June, ranking bottom three in runs scored (28th) and batting average (30th) and has started July a little better, but not much. New York ranks 20th in batting average (.239), 16th in runs scored (57), and 104 strikeouts (16th) in 14 July games.
Only 17 LHP have started versus the Yankees this season and seven recorded five or more strikeouts (41.1%), including Sandoval.
However, as the home pitcher, lefties are 5-4 to the Over (55.5%) against the Yankees. Sandoval pitched at Yankee Stadium in a 9-3 loss and hit the Over 4.5 Ks.
Sandoval has struck out 13 over his last two starts entering this game and has eight strikeouts in each of his past two home starts. Give me the Over 4.5 strikeouts on Sandoval at -122 odds out to -150.
Pick: Patrick Sandoval Over 4.5 Strikeouts (1u)
ML Parlay (+178)
Cubs ML (-175) vs. Nationals
Mariners ML (-130) vs. Twins
It’s back to fading Patrick Corbin after the Nationals’ surprise win over the Rangers before the All-Star Weekend. Corbin’s sporting a 5.00 ERA or higher on the road, at night, and in the past 15 and 30 days.
The Cubs and Nationals are two of the higher-scoring teams to start July and with the pitching duel between Corbin and Jameson Taillon, I will take Taillon and the home Cubs as Taillon’s 7.41 home ERA will regress in a positive manner.
For the Twins, Bailey Ober will make his third career start against the Mariners. Minnesota is 2-0 in those previous starts, but Ober surrendered four earned runs in 2022 and still recorded the win with the Twins posting 10 runs.
In the first meeting between Ober and Seattle, the Minnesota offense posted seven runs, so I can’t expect that type of run support for a third time over a third year against Seattle, especially on the road.
I grabbed the Cubs and Mariners in a ML Parlay at +178 odds.
Pick: Cubs and Mariners ML Parlay (1u)
Start off your Sunday with MLB Sunday leadoff on Peacock featuring exclusive games with no blackout restrictions. Check out the schedule now to see if your favorite team is playing and join for one low annual fee.
DON’T FORGET TO CHECK OUT OUR BETTING TOOLS:
Live Odds: NFL | NBA | MLB | CFB | CBB | NHL
Player Props: NFL | NBA | MLB | CFB | CBB | NHL
