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Pascal Siakam O/U 40.5 PRA vs. 76ers
It’s time to get Spicy for our NBA Play of the Day!
Pascal Siakam finished Game 1 with 24 points, seven assists and three rebounds (34 PRA), falling way short of this number.
However, Scottie Barnes will be out for Game 2 and Gary Trent is doubtful along with Thaddeus Young, so there will be a heavy dosage of Spicy P (Siakam).
NBC’s model projects Siakam to record 29.2 points, 9.8 rebounds and 7.0 assists over 39 minutes (46 PRA).
In three regular season games versus the 76ers, Siakam posted 40, 41 and 59 PRA. Fred VanVleet missed two of those games and Barnes missed one, so Siakam has stepped up in a key players’ absence multiple times versus Philly. The 34 PRA in Game 1 was Siakam’s lowest PRA total versus the 76ers all year.
Siakam has played 27 regular-season games at 40 or more minutes and averaged 24.7 points, 9.1 rebounds and 6.0 assists (39.8 PRA). He played 40 minutes in Game 1 and I expect that number to get bumped a little higher to avoid going down 0-2 in the series.
Siakam recorded 14.0 potential assists and 9.0 potential rebounds in Game 1, while Barnes posted 11.0 potential rebounds and 8.0 potential assists. However, Barnes led the team with 10 boards and eight assists. Siakam had seven assists and three rebounds.
Barnes almost completed 100% with his rebound and assist chances in Game 1, which is very uncommon. Siakam will take a lot of that production, and in his five games without Barnes this season, that is exactly what has happened.
Against the Hornets, Bucks, Suns, Clippers and 76ers, Siakam has averaged 25.8 points, 9.8 rebounds and 8.8 assists per game (44.4 PRA) without Barnes, per statmuse.
Spicy P totaled 45, 48, 36, 51 and 42 PRA in those five games, hitting the Over 40.5 four times and saw 39 or more minutes in all five.
I expect Siakam to carry the load offensively along with VanVleet and OG Anunoby. I think we see all three players record 40-plus minutes and I don’t expect the Raptors to lose by 20 points in this outing. Toronto started off slow and after VanVleet got whistled for two fouls early and struggled to recover.
Philadelphia shot extremely well to open the series and the 76ers defense hasn’t been solved in one game.
Siakam is 9-1 to the Over 40.5 PRA in the last 10 games when he shoots 20 or more field goal attempts. He had 18 in Game 1 and I expect that number to surpass 20 with ease tonight.
Spicy P has led the team in points, rebounds and assists two of his past four games with three Over 40.5 PRA performances.
Let’s roll with the Over 40.5 PRA (-108). I would play the 41.5 for 1 unit as well.
Pick: Pascal Siakam Over 40.5 PRA (1u)
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