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Jonas Valanciunas O/U 13.5 Rebounds vs. Pacers
Jonas Valanciunas has a prime matchup against the Indiana Pacers, who will be without Domantas Sabonis, Myles Turner, Malcolm Brogdon and potentially Caris LeVert.
Brandon Ingram is missing for the Pelicans, so it is the JV show. In the past five meetings with the Pacers, Valanciunas has faced either Turner or Sabonis all five games, with a combination of both big men a few times.
In those five meetings, Valanciunas posted 10 or more rebounds in all five games and averaged 15.0 boards, per statmuse.
While he only hit the Over 13.5 rebounds twice, I like the chances Valanciunas goes for 14-plus after 22 and 13 boards in the last two meetings -- both coming in 2021.
Looking over Valanciunas’ January numbers, he ranks second in the NBA with 21.3 rebound chances behind Rudy Gobert (27.6) per NBAstats.com.
Valanciunas averages 12.4 rebounds per game over his last eight contests, hitting 14 or more rebounds in four games (50%). When he plays at least 34 minutes, which he could tonight, JV hit the Over 13.5 rebounds seven out of 11 games (64%) this season.
Without Sabonis (19.9 rebound chances), Turner (11.1 rebound chances) and Brogdon (5.0 rebound chances), the Pacers have a disadvantage on the boards. As you would imagine, Indiana has looked worse over the past five games when it comes to rebounding.
Over the past five games, Indiana ranks 23rd in opponent rebounding (46.4). In the previous three, that jumps down to T-27th (48.0) and 29th in the last two games (52.0).
I like Valanciunas to go for 15-plus rebounds in this matchup and get somewhere near 25 potential rebound chances.
I played the Over 13.5 rebounds for -128 odds and would play this Over 14.5 rebounds for +100 to -110 and at a half-unit.
Pick: Jonas Valanciunas Over 13.5 Rebounds (1u)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander O/U 24.5 Points vs. Bulls
Alex Caruso and Lonzo Ball are out for Chicago, plus Nikola Vucevic and Zach LaVine are questionable, leaving a lot of uncertainty in this game.
However, we can count on one player showing up. That is OKC’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (SGA), who will face Chicago without their best defenders.
SGA has scored 29 points apiece in his last two games versus the Cavaliers and Hornets in 33 and 39 minutes apiece. Our model predicts him to surpass 25 points, and I see that happening against a Bulls defense that has been in shambles this month.
Chicago ranks 28th, with its opponents hitting 48.5% of their shots in the past five games and NBA-worst 48.8% in January. The Bulls allow 21.9 free-throw attempts in January (18th) and permit 53.7 points in the paint, which is last in the league.
SGA scored 21 points twice (both on the road) and 33 points in his past three meetings versus Chicago, per statmuse. He is at home for this matchup, where he scored 33 points the last time they met.
On the year, SGA has hit Over 24.5 points in 16 out of 23 games (70%) when he plays 35-plus minutes, per NBC’s Player Prop model. He has successful hit rates and home, in the past three, five and 10 at that minute mark.
Entering this game, SGA is 3-1 to the Over 24.5 points in his past four games overall and 5-2 in the last seven (71.4%) at any minute rate. He averages 23.0 ppg across the month (10 games).
I like this matchup versus Chicago without Ball/Caruso, plus the fact this is at home against a Bulls team potentially without its primary rim defender in Vucevic.
Play SGA Over 24.5 points (-118) or the alternative of 25-plus points for a better payout.
I would play this Over 25.5 points for 1 unit as I think 30 points is within reach for the Thunder’s best player.
Pick: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 24.5 Points (1u)
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