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Bucks at Celtics (-5.5): O/U 214.5
The home team has won Game 5 over 79% of the time in history and Boston will host Milwaukee tonight.
The odds are in Boston’s favor and that is why we are seeing -5 and -5.5’s. This has been an amazing series to watch and as someone who predicted the Bucks win the series (no money on it) but have bet the Celtics two straight games -- I will say this series is Over.
Without Khris Middleton, the Bucks are beginning to show its cards and the Giannis Antetokounmpo cannot do it all alone. Boston’s defense has reigned superior and once the offense is clicking, the Celtics have been a well-oiled machine.
The Bucks escaped Game 3 luckily, but I don’t think they escape either of the next two games. If the Bucks win Game 6, then the Celtics at home for Game 7 is a smash spot along with the Under.
In this postseason, the Celtics are 6-2 ATS and on the ML (75%), plus 5-3 to the Under (62.5%). When they are home, Boston is 3-1 on the ML (75%), 2-2 ATS (50%) and 3-1 to the Under (75%).
The Bucks are 4-5 ATS (44.4%), 6-3 on the ML (66.6%) and 8-1 to the Under (88.8%) in the postseason. The Bucks cashed eight straight Unders until Game 4 in Milwaukee.
On the road, the Bucks are 4-0 to the Under (100%) and 3-1 ATS and on the ML (75%), winning three straight until Game 2’s 23-point blowout at Boston.
Then there is this final trend, Boston is 10-1 ATS in the last 11 games versus Milwaukee (90.9%), postseason and regular season, plus the Under has hit three straight when Boston is home and five of the last seven (71.4%), per NBC’s Edge Finder.
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For +170 odds, I will parlay the Celtics ML and the Under 214.5 or 213.5, whichever your book has.
I parlayed the Celtics and Suns (Game 4) yesterday at -110 odds, so I will half double-double on the ML, but roll with the spread at -5 as well for 1 unit .
I like the Celtics and the home favorite trends for Game 5, as you can tell.
Pick: Celtics -5.5 (1u), Celtics ML and Under 214.5 (0.5u)
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