Vaughn Dalzell breaks down his best bet and angle in Game 3 between the Denver Nuggets and Minnesota Timberwolves.
Nuggets (-2.5) at Timberwolves: O/U 223.0
Game 3 of the series between the Nuggets and Timberwolves heads to Minnesota where the Timberwolves are short dogs in the first quarter, first half and full game.
Minnesota trailed the first quarters of both postseason meetings thus far by three and nine points. However, these teams met four times during the regular-season and Minnesota trailed in two, led by one and tied in the other.
There was something that stood out though. Minnesota trailed or led at the end of the first quarter both games as the home team but trailed at the end of the first quarter in all four games at Denver (two regular season, two playoffs).
When teams are down 0-2 in a series and return home, that is a max desperation spot to come out early and grab a lead. Last season this worked out very well for us and we will play it here.
Brooklyn covered at home in the first quarter yesterday against Philadelphia, plus the L.A. Clippers did as well at home against the Suns without Kawhi Leonard and the Warriors too at home versus the Suns.
I played the Timberwolves 1Q +0.5 at -120 odds and would go down to the ML for +100 or better.
Pick: Timberwolves 1Q +0.5 (Risk 1u)
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