The App is Back! Don’t forget to download the NBC Sports EDGE app to receive real-time player news, mobile alerts and track your favorite players. Plus, now you can check out articles and player cards.
LaMelo Ball O/U 4.5 Rebounds vs. Heat
LaMelo Ball has been a human highlight reel to start the season, and no one expects that to stop.
The Hornets star player has averaged 19.6 points, 6.0 assists and 5.6 rebounds through five games versus the Pacers, Cavs, Nets, Celtics and Magic. In all five games, Ball has at least five rebounds in four games and nine combined rebounds and assists to open his sophomore campaign.
Ball met with Miami twice last season and recorded five and six rebounds, hitting the Over 4.5 both times. He has also hit the Over 10.5 rebounds and assists line that is getting thrown out there.
To start this year, Ball has hit the Over 4.5 rebounds in four out of five games (68%), per NBC’s Player Prop model and it projects 5.2 tonight, hence why two of the hit rates are red instead of green. PointsBet is not offering a line on Ball at publishing.
The matchup with Miami seems to be favorable for another Over. Through the early season, Miami allows the fifth-most rebounds to point guards per game (7.98) but the fifth-fewest assists (6.38).
However troubling the assist angle might be, Ball has had five or more in four of five games and 12 total in the meetings as a rookie, so I do like his combo of 10.5 rebounds and assists too.
Here is how opposing point guards have done versus Miami over the last three games. All three had seven or more rebounds, and only Brogdon had fewer than five assists.
Malcolm Brogdon: 18 points, 14 rebounds, 4 assists
Cole Anthony: 12 points, 9 rebounds, 5 assists
James Harden: 14 points, 7 rebounds, 7 assists
P.J. Washington is doubtful for this matchup, and Terry Rozier is tagged as questionable. I expect Washington to sit, and this prop will likely be O/U 5.5 by tipoff, if he is confirmed out.
Washington and Ball have only played 19 minutes on the floor together through the young season, while Rozier and Ball played 14 minutes with each other. There is not much concern but more opportunity for Ball if either player is out.
Grab the value now and enjoy the Ball show on a bounceback day with me.
I grabbed the Over 4.5 rebounds at -144 odds.
I would pivot to Over 10.5 rebound and assists before Over 5.5 rebounds.
Pick: LaMelo Ball Over 4.5 Rebounds (1u)
Editor’s Note: Get an edge with our premium Betting Tools that are packed with live odds, betting trends, predictions, player prop projections, our extensive Edge Finder and much more. And don’t forget to use promo code VAUGHN10 to get 10% off. Click here to learn more!
[[ad:athena]]
Jonas Valanciunas O/U 18.5 Points vs. Kings
Jonas Valanciunas has been feasting to start the season.
The Pelicans big man has grabbed 15 or more rebounds in the last three games and scored 16 or more in four straight. Valanciunas posted 37, 45 and 31 combined points and rebounds (P+R) in his last three.
Like last year, this Kings team allows the most rebounds to opposing centers to open the season at 25.06 per game and the seventh-most points (25.36). Valanciunas should feast.
I am hesitant to play the Over 14.5 rebounds or the 32.5 P+R with Richaun Holmes playing so well and Tristan Thompson, another big body, behind him. Last season, Valanciunas grabbed 13 rebounds in both meetings versus the Kings, so rebounds should be a close call.
The two Sacramento centers can battle Valanciunas for boards, but good luck as far as defending him.
Valanciunas scored 16 against Atlanta, 18 versus Chicago, plus 20 and 22 points in two meetings with Minnesota. All three of those teams feature All-Star caliber centers, while Sacramento does not.
His only other matchup of the season was the opener versus Philadelphia’s Joel Embiid and Andre Drummond.
For +100 to -110 odds, asking Valanciunas to go Over 18.5 points seems like a solid play considering who he is matched up against.
Valanciunas scored 24 and 25 points versus Sacramento last season with Memphis and recorded at least 38 P+R in the past three meetings.
The Kings allow the third-most points in the paint per game (52.0) and the third-most second-chance points (15.8) -- two categories that positively impact Valanciunas’ scoring chances.
This game is the best matchup of the season for Valanciunas, so expect him to show up and show out in a competitive game. I played the Over 18.5 points at +100 odds and would play it at 19.5 or 20+ points.
Pick: Jonas Valanciunas Over 18.5 Points (1u)
PointsBet is our Official Sports Betting Partner, and we may receive compensation if you place a bet on PointsBet for the first time after clicking our links.