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For the first time in this year’s NBA Playoffs, we get to enjoy the two most exciting words in sports—Game 7. Staples Center will play host to Sunday’s win-or-go-home game as the Los Angeles Clippers and Dallas Mavericks battle it out for a date with the top-seeded Utah Jazz in the Western Conference Semifinals. Sunday’s odds are powered by PointsBet.
Dallas Mavericks vs. Los Angeles Clippers (-6.5) Total: 210.5
The Clippers and Mavericks will clash for all the marbles. We have yet to see a home team win a game in this series. PointsBet currently has the Clippers as a -275 MoneyLine favorite this afternoon, while Dallas is coming back at +224 on the line.
I have been back and forth on this series. At first, I thought the Clippers would win easily but after seeing how well Luka Doncic is playing I switched to the Mavericks. However, it’s hard not to see recently how Kawhi Leonard is starting to take over this series.
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In Friday night’s elimination game for the Clippers, Leonard scored 45 points on 18-of-25 shooting. Fun Guy is averaging 32 points per game in this series. When his team has had their back against the wall in the past, we’ve seen how dominant the 29-year-old can and find a way to win. It feels like he is in that space going into Sunday’s game.
There are many trends you can look at when it comes to Game 7s in the NBA. Home teams have won over 70% of them. The Under has hit in over 60%. The Total in this game opened at 215 and has dropped all the way to 210. I hate to get the worst of the number, but I trust the Game 7 trends. Not to mention, the last three games in this series have cashed to the Under. Most Game 7s are played at a snail’s pace and they tend to be very ugly games.
One of the things that I have stressed in sports betting is fading trendy underdogs. The Mavericks getting 6.5 points seems a bit too high and the public agrees. Over 70% of the bets and handle on this game are backing the Mavericks catching the points. The Clippers’ MoneyLine set at close to 3 dollars will keep the majority of bettors away from trying to middle the game. Whenever I see a line too good to be true, especially in a game of this magnitude, I’m going to go the other way. Laying the points with the Clippers is the sharp side.
Edge Finder Tip: Road Underdogs are 16-20 (43%) ATS in the first round of the playoffs.
Edge: Under 210.5
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