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The NBA continues tonight with a seven-game slate, with the first matchup tipping off at 1:00 PM ET.
Whether you believe the game will be a blowout or not is a big factor when selecting someone’s player prop. For instance, Stephen Curry may have 25 points going into the fourth quarter and be on pace to reach his prop of 27.5, but if the Warriors are up by 20+ points, he may not touch the court again.
Blowouts have increased in the NBA over the last decade. However, it is less common this year than during the 2020-21 season. Through the first six and a half weeks of the current NBA season, over 17% of the games have been won by 20+ points, while over 20% of the games during the 2020-21 season were won by a 20+ point margin via Ed Küpfer:
With that said, let’s jump into my favorite NBA prop bets for Saturday’s slate. All odds are reflective at the time of writing.
Best Bet #1 - Dejounte Murray Over 7.5 Rebounds ( +102 FanDuel)
Dejounte Murray has turned into the best rebounder at his position, averaging 8.4 boards a game. His 6-foot-10 wingspan combined with his athleticism and timing allows him to bring down contested rebounds in the paint, separating him from the other point guards in the league.
What’s also improved his rebounding numbers this season, aside from his physical gifts, is that the Spurs have moved away from the two-big man lineups. This means that for San Antonio to stay competitive on the defensive glass, Murray’s needed to crash the boards.
Additionally, the San Antonio Spurs will be up against the Golden State Warriors. While the Warriors often stint opposing players’ stats when they come to town, they gave up an average of 44.7 boards in their three games against the Spurs last season and are still without a true big man. Expect Murray to clean up on the glass.
Dejounte Murray has reached this prop value in fourteen of his 20 games this season and in seven of his last ten.
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Best Bet #2 - Evan Fournier Over 12.5 Points (-106 FanDuel)
Evan Fournier has found a rhythm as of late. In his last five games, he is averaging 17.2 points per game on 44.4% shooting from the field and 50.8% from three-point range.
Fournier has always been a capable scorer, but the reason for his inconsistent offensive numbers comes down to his playing time. Knicks’ head coach Tom Thibodeau will often substitute the Frenchman early due to poor defensive plays. However, during the previous outing against the Chicago Bulls, Fournier showed an improved energy that caught his coach’s eye. “Something doesn’t have to be perfect,” head coach Tom Thibodeau said, “But if you’re hustling, usually good things will happen… I thought his hustle — he did get us going” via theathletic.com.
Now, I am not saying Fournier will become an All-NBA defensive player, nor do I care, but he likely bought some extra minutes of playing time from his coach, increasing his chances at hitting this points total. When Fournier plays 26+ minutes in a game, he is averaging 17.15 points.
EVAN FOURNIER CLUTCH 🥶 pic.twitter.com/BrpbxmX81O
— PointsBet Sportsbook (@PointsBetUSA) December 1, 2021
The New York Knicks will be hosting the Denver Nuggets. The Nuggets have allowed teams to shoot 46.8% from the field and small forwards to score 19.32 points per game via fantasypros.com.
Evan Fournier has hit this prop value in 11 of his 22 games this season and in four of his last five.
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