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The Western Conference has a new leader as the Phoenix Suns surpassed the Golden State Warriors for the top seed in the Western Conference. Phoenix is playing without Devin Booker but continued to impress this week, with Mikal Bridges proving himself to be a legitimate candidate for All-Defensive First Team honors.
The most impressive team in the West last week wasn’t either of the teams at the top of the Pacific division standings however. Instead, it’s the Utah Jazz, winning seven-straight games in which they outscored opponents by 18.8 points per 100 possessions, including an unreal 128.1 offensive rating during an eight-game stretch. Utah’s defense has been discussed ad nauseum over the past few years as the Jazz became a mainstay in the top-five of most meaningful defensive stats during the peak of Rudy Gobert‘s rim protection dominance, but the offense is giving Jazz backers hope that this team could be ready to leap into legitimate contention.
The Jazz are on pace for a 119.0 non-garbage time offensive rating, which would be the best in franchise history, according to Cleaning the Glass. For reference, last year’s historic Brooklyn Nets offense put up a 119.4 non-garbage time offensive rating. Utah is dominating from close range, shooting a league-best 70.9% around the rim while spacing the floor with the highest three-point frequency of any team in the league.
Meanwhile, the Warriors spent most of the week chasing history with Stephen Curry pursuing the three-point record. There is a chance Curry sits out of tonight’s game to rest, making it likely that he will break the record in Madison Square Garden.
Allowing opponents to make history on their home court would be another low point in a season full of them so far for the New York Knicks. The Knicks have been one of the most disappointing teams in the league early this season, currently sitting last in the Atlantic Division at 12-15. The Knicks have been my most commonly bet team so far this season, but yielded just a 9-10 record for +3 units in those games.
Julius Randle shot just 2-of-9 from the field last game and his mid-range game seems to be regressing. After three consecutive seasons shooting at least 40% from mid-range, Randle is down to just 36% this year. His three-point percentage also dropped from a career-high 41% last season to 33% this year, more in line with his career averages. He is taking better shots overall, with an increased rim frequency and the highest three-point attempt rate of his career coming at the expense of some long twos, but his shot-making ability is down from last season. Randle’s -24.3 on/off differential in New York’s net rating ranks in the first percentile, according to Cleaning the Glass, and fixing the Knicks starts with getting Randle back on track.
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The other New York team, the Nets, leads the Eastern Conference at 19-8. Kevin Durant made a statement in the MVP race yesterday with 51 points in Brooklyn’s win over the Detroit Pistons. Durant is leading the league in scoring and shooting in the top-10 percentile of mid-range accuracy for the seventh-consecutive season. His mid-range excellence is especially impressive considering he’s ranked in the 99th percentile of mid-range frequency each of the past three years while hitting threes at an above-average clip every year since his rookie season, according to Cleaning the Glass.
I usually try to avoid taking championship futures during the regular season, partially to prevent tying up bankroll and partially due to the potential for heavy variance between now and the playoffs, and when I do take a championship future, it is usually a longshot. However, I do see value in taking the Nets to win the championship now, especially in light of today’s report from Shams Charania suggesting there is “renewed optimism” around Kyrie Irving‘s return to the team. Irving’s return would make Brooklyn the overwhelming favorites to win the Eastern Conference, and James Harden returning to form would be the cherry on top. PointsBet Sportsbook lists the Nets with odds of +300, while most other books posted Brooklyn’s championship odds at +260 or better.
Elsewhere, the MVP race will likely come down to four players this season. Former teammates Durant and Curry currently lead the race, but Nikola Jokić and Giannis Antetokounmpo are close behind. Jokić is having a season similar to last year’s dominant effort that won him the MVP, averaging 26.5 points, 13.5 boards and 7.2 assists per game on 58.2% shooting. Many of the advanced stats favor Jokić, including a league-best +31.5 on/off net rating differential and +9.8 estimated plus-minus. However, the Denver Nuggets have a 13-13 record so far and team success will play a role in who wins this award.
Antetokounmpo passed Curry on the scoring leaderboard this week and currently sits second behind Durant in points per game. He is carrying a larger burden on the defensive end with Brook Lopez out, resulting in the second-highest block rate in his career. After spending over 80% of his minutes at power forward over the last four seasons, the Bucks are experimenting with small-ball this year and Giannis has played 51% of his minutes at center to start the year. While his shot is still a work in progress, Antetokounmpo is a legitimate candidate to win both MVP and DPOY after carrying the Milwaukee Bucks through early-season adversity.
I already have some pending Curry MVP futures, so I’d stay off him at his current favorite price of +125. Instead, I see more value on Jokić this week with +1000 odds. A longshot on the board could be Joel Embiid, as he led the Philadelphia 76ers to a win over Golden State this week and averaged 27.4 points and 12.3 rebounds per game since returning from COVID reserve.
Picks:
The most surprising team in recent weeks has been the Houston Rockets. Houston went on a seven-game winning streak last week and the Rockets covered the spread in eight of the last nine games. Garrison Mathews has been one of the best stories in the NBA this season and even garnered MVP chants in Houston after putting up 16.4 points and 3.8 threes per game over the recent nine-game stretch. Mathews ranks sixth in average three-pointers made this season with higher accuracy than all but one of the 21 players averaging 7.5 three-point attempts per game, with the exception being Curry (who is tied with Mathews at 40.4%). Christian Wood is also on a tear after a slow start to the year, averaging 19 points and nearly 11 boards over the last nine outings.
The Rockets put up a top-five offensive rating over the last 10 games, but still rank behind the Charlotte Hornets. Charlotte averaged nearly 120 points per 100 possessions in the last 10 games, behind only Utah’s high-powered attack, and the Hornets rank second in offensive rating on the season. This is even more impressive considering LaMelo Ball, Terry Rozier, and other key players missed time with injuries and COVID. Miles Bridges continues to make his Most Improved Player case but the biggest surprise in Charlotte is the recent play of Kelly Oubre.
Oubre was far from a sniper last year in Golden State, averaging just 1.6 threes per game on 31.6% shooting, but stepped up with all the absences in Charlotte recently. Over the last ten games, Oubre ranks third behind Curry and Rozier in average three-pointers made while shooting at a 40.6% clip from beyond the arc. Oubre gives Charlotte a spark with aggressive dunks and deep threes, while also being prone to the occasional head-scratching play. I wouldn’t count on Oubre being a reliable part of any postseason rotation, but this hot stretch is helping the Hornets through a difficult stretch of the regular season.
The past week was among the worst of the season for my picks as my record fell to 108-69-2 for +49.5 units. I’m backing both the Hornets and Rockets to stay hot tonight. +12 is way too big for a spread on Houston with how well they’ve played recently, and I think Charlotte will win outright in Dallas with the Mavericks coming off a back-to-back and playing without Luka Dončić. The lines for both games are already seeing positive movement, and I like the Hornets up to the Money Line and the Rockets up to +10.
EDGE:
Houston Rockets +12 (2 Units)
Charlotte Hornets +4 (2 Units)
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