Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5)
No. 4 seed Houston barely survived its Saturday wild-card game to advance to this AFC showdown. The Texans (11-6 SU, 8-8-1 ATS) laid a goose egg for nearly three quarters, falling behind No. 5 Buffalo 16-0, before rallying to tie it at 19 and force overtime. Bill O’Brien’s troops then squeaked out a 22-19 win and cover as 2.5-point home favorites Saturday.
Kansas City won its regular-season finale and grabbed the No. 2 seed and a bye when New England lost to Miami in Week 17. The Chiefs (12-4 SU, 10-5-1 ATS) topped the Los Angeles Chargers 31-21 for a sixth consecutive SU win, though they pushed as 10-point favorites, halting a five-game spread-covering run.
This game, with a 3:05 p.m. ET start Sunday, has seen the most early movement.
“We opened the Chiefs -7.5 and have been bet up,” Murray said of a line that posted late Saturday evening and reached -9.5 by Sunday morning. “The Chiefs will close any parlays that are left from the first two favorites (on Saturday). The books will need Houston pretty big on Sunday.”
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Minnesota Vikings at San Francisco 49ers (-7)
Sixth-seeded Minnesota is the surprise guest at the NFC divisional-round party after an upset win in the wild-card round. The Vikings (11-6 SU, 10-7 ATS) went to New Orleans as 7.5-point underdogs Sunday and emerged with a 26-20 overtime victory, knocking out the Saints for the second time in three years.
Meanwhile, San Francisco rested up as the No. 1 seed, giving it a bye and home-field advantage in the NFC playoffs. The 49ers (13-3 SU, 9-6-1 ATS) capped the regular season with a big win over rival Seattle, 26-21 laying 3.5 points on the road.
“The Vikings will see a lot of support off that upset of New Orleans,” Murray said, noting the first move on this 4:35 p.m. ET Saturday game was tightening the Niners to -6.5. “The Saints really gave that game away. The 49ers will be in their share of teasers and parlays, but not as many as the two AFC favorites.”
Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens (-10)
Tennessee, the AFC’s sixth seed, also sent a little shockwave around the league by upending the reigning Super Bowl champ. The Titans (10-7 SU, 9-7-1 ATS) fended off No. 3 seed New England 20-13 as 4.5-point road pups Saturday.
Baltimore hasn’t lost a game since September, nabbing the AFC’s No. 1 seed and a bye week in the process. The Ravens (14-2 SU, 10-6 ATS) finished with a 28-10 victory over Pittsburgh as 2-point home ‘dogs, despite playing a host of backups in what was a meaningless Week 17 game for John Harbaugh’s squad.
“The Ravens will be in every moneyline parlay, every parlay and every teaser,” Murray said of anticipated action for this 8:15 p.m. ET Saturday contest. “Baltimore has been on cruise control for the last couple of months, and there’s nobody left that they wouldn’t be a big favorite against.”
That said, the first move in this line was a tick down to Baltimore -9.5.
Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers (-3.5)
Seattle blew a shot at a postseason bye and a divisional home game by falling short to San Francisco in Week 17, but bounced back just fine on Wild Card Weekend. The fifth-seeded Seahawks (12-5 SU, 8-8-1 ATS) beat No. 4 Philadelphia 17-9 catching 1 point on the road Sunday.
Green Bay won its last five games to snare the NFC’s No. 2 seed and a playoff bye. The Packers (13-3 SU, 10-6 ATS) edged Detroit 23-20 at Detroit on a final-seconds field goal, falling well short of cashing as hefty 13.5-point favorites in Week 17.
“The Packers were one of the big winners this weekend,” Murray said. “They would’ve been a small ‘dog to New Orleans and now host a Seattle team that caught a break of its own, with Carson Wentz going down in the wild-card game. This will be the most-divided game of the weekend.”
The line moved from Packers -3.5 to -4 early Sunday evening. This matchup is the last of the divisional round, with a 6:40 p.m. ET kickoff next Sunday.
Patrick Everson is a Las Vegas-based senior writer for Covers.com. Follow him on Twitter: @Covers_Vegas.
