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Boston Red Sox
2021 Record: 92-70
Second Place (tie), AL East
Team ERA: 4.26 (15th in MLB)
Team OPS: .777 (3rd in MLB)
What Went Right
After a third-place finish in the AL East in 2019 and last-place finish in the shortened 2020 campaign, the Red Sox rode their dynamic offense to a Wild Card spot and trip to the ALCS in 2021. Xander Bogaerts struggled after the All-Star break but still finished with a .863 OPS and 23 home runs. Rafael Devers slugged a career-high 38 over the boards, drove in 113 and scored 101 in his first All-Star season. J.D. Martinez fell just shy of the century mark with 99 RBI while hitting 28 home runs and batting .286. Both Enrique Hernandez and Hunter Renfroe proved to be wise offseason additions. Hernandez hit 20 homers, had a .786 OPS and played excellent defense both at second base and center field. He also put together a fantastic run at the plate during the playoffs. Renfroe swatted 31 bombs of his own and set new career highs with 96 RBI and a .816 OPS. Kyle Schwarber was a late-season shot in the arm after being acquired via trade, popping seven homers with a .957 OPS. There weren’t as many pitching bright spots, but Nathan Eovaldi was the headliner with a 3.75 ERA and 195/35 K/BB ratio over 182 1/3 innings. There was also Garrett Whitlock, who was one of the better Rule 5 picks in recent memory with a 1.96 ERA with more than a strikeout per frame.
What Went Wrong
Garrett Richards was a complete bust as a free agent starter signing, posting a 5.22 ERA over 22 starts. He did pitch better after being moved to the bullpen. A reunion with left-hander Martin Perez didn’t work, either. The trade for Adam Ottavino looked smart in the first half, but he was an absolute disaster in the second half with a 6.48 ERA. It’s probably not fair to put closer Matt Barnes in this second since he pitched so well for the first four months that he made the All-Star team and earned a contract extension, but he was so bad down the stretch that he was initially left off the Red Sox’ ALDS roster. Utility players Marwin Gonzalez and Danny Santana were both awful, with the former eventually being released in August. After being one of the better-hitting catchers in the game from 2019-20, Christian Vazquez regressed majorly in 2021. Franchy Cordero was horrendous during his time with the big club and top prospect Jarren Duran wasn’t much better during his first cup of coffee.
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Fantasy Slants
** Alex Verdugo has had a perfectly nice start to his major league career. In 2021, he put together a .287/.351/.426 batting line, which is a fine season especially when you consider he’s still just 25 years old. However, he also hit just 13 homers and from a power perspective it’s similar to what he’s done throughout his professional career. We’ve seen guys with a good hit tool eventually develop more power, and that could very well happen with Verdugo. That said, he hits too many balls on the ground and this season he really struggled versus lefties (.554 OPS).
** Jarren Duran earned his first promotion to the majors in mid-July after posting a .926 OPS with 15 homers and 12 steals over 46 games for Triple-A Worcester. Unfortunately, after six weeks of looking overmatched he was sent back down and not long after that he tested positive for COVID-19. Duran is a major stolen base threat with his elite speed, and he experienced a power breakout at Worcester in 2021. The makings of a fantasy stud are there, but he’ll have to cut down on his strikeouts and show he can hit lefties.
** It will be interesting to see what the Red Sox do at first base this offseason. Bobby Dalbec was dreadful for the first four months of the season and lost his job, only to gain it back with 14 home runs and a 1.053 OPS over the final two months. His swing-and-miss tendencies are going to make him streaky, but Dalbec has his 33 homers and driven in 94 in his first 545 major league plate appearances. Will Boston roll with him again in 2022, will they sign a veteran or could they give the job to Triston Casas? Casas has a much better hit tool than Dalbec and just as much power, but he won’t turn 22 until January.
** What can we expect out of Chris Sale in 2022? Sale’s numbers after he returned from Tommy John surgery in mid-August were good. He gave up more hits than normal, but his strikeout and walk rates were good, his velocity was fine and his slider was sharp. Sale’s changeup got hammered, though, and he didn’t pitch well in the playoffs. The left-hander is going to have workload limitations in 2022 after throwing just 62 2/3 innings in 2021, but it’s reasonable to expect him to start looking more and more like his old self as he further distances from surgery.
** Matt Barnes is being paid like a closer after he inked a contract extension in July, but will he open next season in the role? The 31-year-old was one of the best relievers in the game through the end of July, holding a 2.30 ERA and 66/11 K/BB ratio over 43 innings. Then he fell apart with a 9.26 ERA and 18/12 K/BB ratio over his final 11 2/3 frames. It was bad enough that Barnes was initially left off the ALDS roster and he didn’t pitch well in his lone postseason appearance. The Red Sox could wait to see how Barnes looks in spring training before considering throwing him back into the closer role. Or, they could give Garrett Whitlock the job or bring in outside help.
Key Free Agents: Eduardo Rodriguez, Kyle Schwarber, Adam Ottavino, Garrett Richards, Martin Perez, Jose Iglesias, Hansel Robles, Danny Santana, Travis Shaw, Brandon Workman
Team Needs: Pitching, mostly. The Red Sox will hopefully get a full season out of Sale in 2022, but they’re poised to lose E-Rod and Tanner Houck probably isn’t ready for a full season of a starter workload. They also must add relief help whether that’s a big-name closer or, at the very least, some insurance policies for Barnes. What to do with the right side of the infield is also a question. Ideally, Duran can run with the center field job so Hernandez can move back to second base.
