The updated outfield rankings are broken into three parts: the top 10 prospects in order, the next 10 prospects in alphabetical order and a list of those who could provide some value in 2015. As always, these rankings are done from a scouting perspective but with fantasy baseball in mind, generally focusing on standard 5x5 league categories, though other statistics (e.g., OBP) are considered.
And in case you missed it, please check out the initial Prospect Positional column for outfielders. It features more in-depth scouting notes as well as a recap of each player’s 2014 campaign.
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MLB Graduates (Alphabetical Order):
Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins
Rusney Castillo, Boston Red Sox
Joc Pederson, Los Angeles Dodgers
Dalton Pompey, Toronto Blue Jays
Scott Schebler, Los Angeles Dodgers
Jorge Soler, Chicago Cubs
Steven Souza, Tampa Bay Rays
Michael Taylor, Washington Nationals
Yasmany Tomas, Arizona Diamondbacks
Preston Tucker, Houston Astros
The Top 10:
1. David Dahl, Colorado Rockies (Double-A New Britain, Eastern League)
2015 Stats: 44 G, 189 PA, .269/.296/.379, 28 R, 3 HR, 12 XBH, 14 SB, 3.7% BB%, 22.2% K%
Dahl suffered a lacerated spleen on May 28 in an ugly outfield collision, and, he was expected to miss the remainder of the 2015 season after undergoing emergency surgery for the injury. However, the 21-year-old center fielder opted to undergo a splenectomy a few days later, and it now appears as though he’ll be able to return before the end of the season. It’s a shame Dahl got hurt, too; he was having a great second month of the season, batting .307/.320/.436 with eight extra-base hits and eight steals in 25 games, after posting a .576 OPS in April.
Fantasy Upside: .280+ AVG, 15-20 HR, 20+ SB
2. Aaron Judge, New York Yankees (Double-A Trenton, Eastern League)
2015 Stats: 57 G, 257 PA, .283/.350/.500, 10 HR, 27 XBH, 37 RBI, 8.6% BB%, 25.7% K%
Judge made a statement last year in his professional debut by hitting .308/.419/.486 with 17 home runs and 24 doubles in 131 games between both Class-A levels, and then followed it up with an equally impressive showing in the Arizona Fall League. The 23-year-old outfielder is showing more power this season against better pitching, as he’s tied for second in the Eastern League with 10 home runs and 115 total bases. However, it is worth noting that he also leads the league with 67 strikeouts. Judge has cooled off at the plate in the past month, too, with a .223 average and 30.8% strikeout rate in his last 107 plate appearances (24 games), although that was to be expected as he begins to face teams for a second and third time.
Fantasy Upside: .270 AVG, .350 OBP, 30+ HR
3. Jesse Winker, Cincinnati Reds (Double-A Pensacola, Southern League)
2015 Stats: 55 G, 237 PA, .246/.346/.355, 26 R, 3 HR, 14 XBH, 17 RBI, 12.2% BB%, 16.0% K%
Winker boosted his stock with a strong showing in last year’s Arizona Fall League, but the 21-year-old has gotten off to a slow start this season in the Southern League, evidenced by his .246 and 14 extra-base hits through 55 games. But while his average and power numbers are down this season, Winker has continued to draw walks (12.2% BB%) and reach base at a high clip (.346 OBP), and his .287 BABIP suggests he’s bound to see an uptick in production.
Fantasy Upside: .280+ AVG, .350+ OBP, 15-20 HR
4. Raimel Tapia, Colorado Rockies (High-A Modesto, California League)
2015 Stats: 62 G, 288 PA, .307/.329/.462, 6 HR, 27 XBH, 38 RBI, 10 SB (8 CS), 3.1% BB%, 20.5% K%
Tapia has done exactly what everyone expected this season in the California League: hit the snot out of the ball. The 21-year-old currently ranks 10th in the California League with a .307 batting average, while his 81 hits is good for second among all qualified hitters. While Tapia projects for a plus hit tool at maturity, there are some concerns about how his free-swinging approach will translate at more advanced levels. That being said, his strikeout and walk rates this season are about what was expected after he posted strikeout and walk rates of 16.7% and 6.5%, respectively, in 2014 at Low-A Asheville during his full-season debut.
Fantasy Upside: .280+ AVG, 10-12 HR, 20+ SB
5. Nomar Mazara, Texas Rangers (Double-A Frisco, Texas League)
2015 Stats: 60 G, 252 PA, .300/.381/.464, 7 HR, 20 XBH, 34 RBI, 10.7% BB%, 21.4% K%
Mazara opened eyes last season during his 24 games at Double-A Frisco by batting .306/.381/.518 with 11 extra-base hits and 16 RBI - a performance made all the more impressive by the fact that the then-19-year-old moved up to the Texas League directly from Low-A Hickory. Well, Mazara, now 20, has picked up at Frisco this season where he left off in 2014, as he currently ranks eighth in the Texas League in both batting average (.300) and OPS (.836). The 6-foot-4, 205-pound left-handed hitter has been especially hot of late, with a .313/.370/.708 batting line, five home runs, eight extra-base hits and 16 RBI in his last 13 games.
Fantasy Upside: .260+ AVG, 25+ HR
6. Clint Frazier, Cleveland Indians (High-A Lynchburg, Carolina League)
2015 Stats: 61 G, 272 PA, .261/.346/.415, 7 HR, 22 XBH, 35 RBI, 6 SB, 9.2% BB%, 23.2% K%
Frazier had a slow first month of the season at Lynchburg before discovering his power stroke and clubbing his first home run on May 6. The 20-year-old outfielder has been rolling ever since, highlighted by his .815 OPS, six home runs, 11 doubles and 28 RBI in his last 35 games. It’s worth remembering that Frazier also had a slow first half last year before turning things around during the final months of the season. Considering he’s figured things out a bit earlier this year, it wouldn’t be a surprise if Frazier blew past his 2014 power totals (13 HR, 18 2B, .146 ISO).
Fantasy Upside: .270+ AVG, 20-25 HR, 10-15 SB
7. Alex Jackson, Seattle Mariners (Short Season Everett, Northwest League)
2015 Stats: 28 G, 121 PA, .157/.240/.213, 0 HR, 6 XBH, 13 RBI, 5.0 BB%, 28.9% K%
Big things were expected from Jackson this year in his full-season debut, but the 19-year-old outfielder struggled mightily in his introduction to the Midwest League, batting just .157/.240/.213 with no home runs and a 28.9% strikeout rate in 28 games. To make matters worse, the 2014 first-round pick was demoted from Low-A Clinton to Short Season Everett in late May, though it wasn’t just due to his poor performance. Rather, the Mariners’ top prospect hurt his shoulder during spring training and it carried into the first couple months of the season. As of now, it’s still unclear how long Jackson will be sidelined.
Fantasy Upside: .270 AVG, 25 HR
8. Hunter Renfroe, San Diego Padres (Double-A San Antonio, Texas League)
2015 Stats: 57 G, 235 PA, .231/.294/.340, 3 HR, 17 XBH, 22 RBI, 7.7% BB%, 25.1% K%
Renfroe has struggled in his return to Texas League this season, posting a .634 OPS with a 25.1% strikeout rate through 235 plate appearances for San Antonio. It’s been a disappointing step back for the 23-year-old slugger after he smashed 21 home runs and 33 doubles last season in 129 games between High-A Lake Elsinore and San Antonio. Renfroe owns a .232/.300/.346 batting line to go along with eight home runs and 23.0% strikeout rate in 486 plate appearances at the Double-A level between the last two seasons.
Fantasy Upside: .260 AVG, 25 HR, 10-12 SB
9. Michael Conforto, New York Mets (Double-A Binghamton, Eastern League)
2015 Stats: 60 G, 266 PA, .299/.383/.498, 9 HR, 25 XBH, 39 RBI, 11.3% BB%, 14.7% K%
Conforto, the No. 10 overall pick in the 2014 draft, was promoted to Double-A Binghamton after batting .283/.350/.462 with seven home runs and 12 doubles in 206 plate appearances in the Florida State League. It didn’t take long for the 22-year-old outfielder to adjust to the more advanced level, as he’s batting a robust .346/.477/.596 with eight extra-base hits and a 14/13 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 15 games since joining Binghamton. Conforto appears to be on the fast track to the major leagues, but it likely would take an injury for him to debut with the Mets in 2015.
Fantasy Upside: .270/.350/.450, 20-25 HR
10. Bradley Zimmer, Cleveland Indians (High-A Lynchburg, Carolina League)
2015 Stats: 61 G, 263 PA, .305/.407/.507, 50 R, 9 HR, 24 XBH, 26 SB, 11.0% BB%, 22.4% K%
Zimmer, 22, has opened his first full professional season on a tear, as he currently leads all qualified Carolina League hitters in OPS (.914), runs scored (50) and total bases (114), while also ranking second in both home runs (nine) and stolen bases (26). The No. 21 overall pick in last year’s draft, Zimmer is proving to be too advanced for the High-A level, and it wouldn’t be surprising if he were to receive a promotion to Double-A before the All-Star break.
Fantasy Upside: .280/.340/.420, 12-15 HR, 20+ SB
The Next 10 (Alphabetical Order):
Albert Almora, Chicago Cubs (Double-A Tennessee, Southern League)
2015 Stats: 50 G, 212 PA, .254/.290/.347, 31 R, 2 HR, 14 XBH, 5.7% BB%, 9.4 K%
The 2012 first-round pick missed time early in the season with a concussion, and he narrowly escaped serious injury as part of a scary outfield collision last month. Beyond that, Almora has more or less held his own as one of the younger everyday players in the Southern League, though he has struggled lately with a .618 OPS in his last 11 games. It makes sense for the Cubs to keep Almora in the Southern League for the entire 2015 season so as to allow him to develop more selectivity and better discipline against quality pitching.
Lewis Brinson, Texas Rangers (High-A High Desert, California League)
2015 Stats: 28 G, 131 PA, .286/.382/.491, 5 HR, 11 XBH, 6 SB, 11.5% BB%, 20.6% K%
Brinson appeared in 17 games for High Desert before landing on the disabled list in April for a little more than five weeks. Since returning, the 21-year-old has gone 7-for-24 (.292) with thee home runs, one double, nine runs scored and four walks. The upside continues to be huge with Brinson, and he’s actually made noticeable progress with each season. However, he’s still probably a few years away from making an impact in the major leagues and has fellow prospects Nomar Mazara and Nick Williams ahead of him on the team’s long-term depth chart.
Derek Fisher, Houston Astros (High-A Lancaster, California League)
2015 Stats: 54 G, 249 PA, .301/.386/.525, 11 HR, 25 XBH, 48 RBI, 15 SB, 11.3% BB%, 21.7% K%
The Astros drafted Fisher last year with the hope that the 21-year-old outfielder, who had always hit for average during his time at Virginia, would learn to tap into his raw power as a professional. That’s precisely what the Virginia product has done this year in his first full season by hitting 11 home runs and slugging .525 through 54 games between both Class-A levels. Fisher also has made an impact on the base paths with 15 steals in 18 attempts, and he set a California League record with 12 RBI in his debut for High-A Lancaster on May 31.
Gabby Guerrero, Arizona Diamondbacks (Double-A Mobile, Southern League)
2015 Stats: 60 G, 236 PA, .210/.254/.306, 27 R, 2 HR, 15 XBH, 4 SB, 5.9% BB%, 24.6% K%
Guerrero has spent the season between a pair of Southern League affiliates after he was dealt from Arizona to Seattle in early June as part of the Mark Trumbo trade. Unfortunately, the 21-year-old outfielder - and nephew of Vladimir Guerrero - hasn’t done much with either club, combining for a .560 OPS with only two home runs and strikeout and walk rates that offer reason for concern. Guerrero’s performance this season is especially disappointing given his breakout 2014 campaign the California League, though, with a 5.9% walk rate and .373 BABIP, a case can be made that his success was rooted largely in luck.
Manuel Margot, Boston Red Sox (High-A Salem, Carolina League)
2015 Stats: 40 G, 171 PA, .268/.302/.376, 1 HR, 10 XBH, 17 SB, 5.3% BB%, 7.6% K%
Margot got off to a hot start this season in his return to the Carolina League, posting an .891 OPS with nine stolen bases in the season’s first month, but landed on the disabled list for several weeks in early May with a shoulder injury. The talented 21-year-old hasn’t hit for much power since returning to action, but he’s still managed to bat .281 with 16 hits in 14 games in that span.
Billy McKinney, Chicago Cubs (Double-A Tennessee, Southern League)
2015 Stats: 59 G, 235 PA, .296/.368/.463, 5 HR, 21 XBH, 37 RBI, 10.2% BB%, 12.3% K%
The Cubs gave McKinney an early-season promotion to Double-A Tennessee after he batted .340/.432/.544 with four home runs, 25 RBI and more walks (17) than strikeouts (13) in 29 games at High-A Myrtle Beach. That the 20-year-old outfielder is batting just .250/.294/.380 with one home run in 30 games since moving up to the Southern League isn’t reason for concern, as McKinney is four years younger than the average everyday player at the Double-A level. The 2013 first-round pick will never hit for much power, but his left-handed bat and advanced approach offer plenty to be excited about.
Austin Meadows, Pittsburgh Pirates (High-A Bradenton, Florida State League)
2015 Stats: 54 G, 258 PA, .279/.354/.367, 31 R, 2 HR, 14 XBH, 7 SB, 10.5% BB%, 14.0% K%
A hamstring injury limited Meadows to only 38 games in 2014, but that was enough time for the 2013 first-round pick to showcase a promising blend of hitting ability, on-base skills and gap power. Those same aspects of the 20-year-old’s game have carried over this season in the pitcher-friendly Florida State League, where he owns a .721 OPS with 14 extra-base hits and a 10.5% walk rate through 54 games.
Brandon Nimmo, New York Mets (Double-A Binghamton, Eastern League)
2015 Stats: 36 G, 165 PA, .281/.358/.397, 2 HR, 11 XBH, 8.5% BB%, 18.2% K%
Nimmo enjoyed a solid start to his season back at Double-A Binghamton, batting .281/.358/.397 with 41 hits and 11 extra-base hits (two home runs) through 36 games, but a left knee injury sidelined the 22-year-old outfielder for most of the last month. Nimmo finally made his return to the field at High-A St. Lucie earlier this week, and he should rejoin Binghamton in short order after a rehab stint in the Florida State League.
Brett Phillips, Houston Astros (High-A Lancaster, California League)
2015 Stats: 60 G, 294 PA, .331/.388/.594, 62 R, 13 HR, 37 XBH, 48 RBI, 6.5% BB%, 19.4% K%
Phillips seemingly came from nowhere in 2014 to claim the Astros’ Minor League Player of the Year award with a .310/.375/.529 batting line, 60 extra-base hits (17 home runs) and 23 stolen bases between both Class-A levels. It’s been more of the same in 2015 for the 21-year-old outfielder back at Lancaster, as he currently ranks first in the California League in hits (88), runs (62) and total bases (158), has the second-best OPS (.982) and is tied for third with 13 home runs. Not bad for a guy who has led off in 55 of 60 games this season, right?
Nick Williams, Texas Rangers (Double-A Frisco, Texas League)
2015 Stats: 63 G, 272 PA, .297/.360/.472, 8 HR, 24 XBH, 28 RBI, 6 SB, 8.8% BB%, 17.6% K%
Williams batted only .226 in 15 games at Double-A Frisco last season, but the 21-year-old has fared much better this year in his return to the Texas League, ranking sixth among qualified batters in slugging percentage (.472) and eighth in OPS (.832). Meanwhile, Williams is finally showing a relatively consistent approach this year, as his 8.8% walk rate and 17.6% strikeout rate represent vast improvements compared to his career averages of 5.6% and 25.1%, respectively. Perhaps more importantly, William’s newfound selectivity hasn’t negatively impacted his production.
2015 Fantasy Value (Alphabetical Order):
Rymer Liriano, San Diego Padres
Steven Moya, Detroit Tigers
Kyle Parker, Colorado Rockies
Stephen Piscotty, St. Louis Cardinals
Yorman Rodriguez, Cincinnati Reds
Domingo Santana, Houston Astros
Previous installments from Prospect Positional series:
Starting Pitchers (6/3/2015)
Catchers (5/27/2015)
Shortstops (5/20/2015)
Third Basemen (5/13/2015)
Second Basemen (5/7/2015)
First Basemen (4/30/2015)
Rotoworld Season Pass Prospect Rankings (Updated weekly)
*All stats reflect games through June 15.
