Giannis Antetokounmpo tweaked his right ankle but the Bucks still managed to extend their playoffs with a Game 4 victory. The Lakers equalized their series vs. the Rockets at 1-1, powered by big games from LeBron James, Anthony Davis and the bench led by Rajon Rondo and Markieff Morris. There’s plenty to talk about, so let’s Dose.
Bucks vs. Heat
The Bucks lost Giannis Antetokounmpo prior to halftime when he aggravated his sprained right ankle. The injury didn’t look too serious, so hopefully his second-half absence was mostly a precaution. It was an elimination game, though, so his inability to return is concerning -- the schedule is relentless and Game 5 will be played on Tuesday. The reigning MVP finished with 19 points on 8-of-10 shooting, one 3-pointer, four rebounds, one steal and one block in only 11 minutes. His teammates stepped up to get the win and keep Milwaukee’s playoff hopes alive, but it all hinges on the health of Giannis’ ankle. For now, Khris Middleton scored 36 points to keep the Bucks’ season on life-support, hitting 12-of-28 field goals and 9-of-9 free throws despite a ton of defensive attention. Eric Bledsoe was also impressive with 14/10/6 and one block in 40 minutes, and his line would have been more impactful if he didn’t go 0-of-6 from deep.
Donte DiVincenzo was impressive, hitting one free throw to force overtime in an eventual 118-115 victory. He finished with 10 points, five rebounds, two assists, one steal and one block in 27 minutes off the bench. But if the Bucks are going to make a historic comeback from a 3-0 hole in this series, they’ll need a healthy Giannis. As my colleague Jared Johnson noted this weekend, Antetokounmpo has really struggled vs. Miami’s drop coverage. Miami’s defensive scheme cut off driving lanes and he came into Game 4 scoring on a mere 46.7% of his drives vs. the Heat, compared to 60% during the regular season. Ultimately, both Giannis and his teammates will need to hit more 3-pointers to make it through the gauntlet of the NBA playoffs -- every team’s scouting report will note the success Miami has had, so they’ll need a counter. Giannis had missed 11 consecutive 3-pointers until he finally hit one late in the first quarter of this game.[[ad:athena]]
His one flaw isn’t to blame, of course, as Milwaukee’s defense has basically imploded in this series. They came into Game 4 with a Defensive Rating of 116.9, the worst of any team still playing. That’s bizarre since they led the league in net rating during the regular-season this year, but were at -9.5 coming into this game. They’ve been badly out-rebounded in this series, they’ve let the Heat pass the ball with impunity, and just haven’t look as invested in winning as their opponent. A No. 1 seed getting beat in the second round isn’t a good look for coach Mike Budenholzer. He’s the 2018-19 Coach of the Year, of course, and there’s been no talk of replacing him. This is more about players dropping the ball. Maybe they’ll make history by overcoming a 3-0 deficit and he’ll look like a genius.
Jimmy Butler has nearly handed the Bucks a first-round sweep -- he can close them out with a 4-1 series win on Tuesday. He’s been exceptionally good, and came into Game 4 averaging 9.7 points at the free-throw line in the playoffs. He’s adding 13.4 points from the field for a career playoff-high 23.1 points this postseason, and Milwaukee’s defense hasn’t switched effectively enough to get a body in front of him without fouling. For a career 83.5% FT shooter with the intelligence and skill to keep forcing the issue, that’s a green light to attack the rim on every single possession. Butler’s scoring was a bit down this regular season (19.9 points per game) but he’s averaging career highs in rebounds (6.7) and assists (6.0). He’s terrific.
Bam Adebayo missed out on the league’s Most Improved Player award, which went to Brandon Ingram, but his achievements haven’t gone unnoticed. He made the All-Star team and won the Skills Competition, finishing the regular season with averages of 15.9 points on 55.7% shooting, 10.2 rebounds, 5.1 assists, 1.3 blocks and 1.1 steals. He shot 10-of-13 from the field and 6-of-6 from the line during Sunday’s tough loss, finishing with a 26/12/8 line. You won’t get him after the second round of fantasy drafts for 2020-21.
Goran Dragic‘s defense on Khris Middleton was poor in Game 4. To his credit, though, Dragic has held opponents to 3.2 percentage points below their typical average in the postseason. There’s a team-defense component to that success, and he was blatantly targeted on the Bucks’ offensive possessions Sunday. Nevertheless, Dragic has been huge for the Heat, scoring 20+ points in their first six playoff games, and the 34-year-old veteran clearly benefited from the league’s shutdown by resting and getting game-ready at his own pace. It remains to be seen whether his defense will hold up as the playoffs continue.
Meanwhile, Duncan Robinson bounced back in a big way on Sunday with 20 points on 7-of-13 shooting (6-of-12 from deep), five rebounds, three assists and one steal in 39 minutes. His outside shooting is critical for Miami and he was fifth in makes per game during the regular season (3.6), trailing only Davis Bertans, Buddy Hield, Damian Lillard and James Harden. He’d been held to single-digit scoring in five of his previous seven playoff games, so this is a welcome sight for fantasy managers.
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Rockets vs. Lakers
The Rockets scored 27 points off turnovers during their Game 1 victory, and LeBron James was blunt in his post-game assessment of what went wrong. “Seventeen turnovers for 27 points,” James said. “That’s our offense.” Game 2 followed a different script -- the Lakers still committed 15 turnovers but they walked away with a 117-109 victory to tie things up at 1-1. They shot a ridiculous 56.6% from the field and 44.4% from deep, which is unsustainable, but they also out-rebounded Houston, 41-35. That seems like a reliable edge.
The Rockets came into Game 4 with the top-rated defense in the playoffs, allowing a mere 101.4 points per 100 possessions. For context, the Nets had a 122.9 Defensive Rating this postseason, and nine teams are at 110+. The only teams among that group still competing are the Clippers and Nuggets. P.J. Tucker was excellent again on Sunday with 18 points on 7-of-10 shooting (4-of-7 from deep), 11 rebounds, two assists, one steal, one block and zero turnovers in 34 minutes. He deserves a ton of credit for routinely taking on opposing centers, but the entire roster is playing up positionally most nights -- that includes James Harden and Westbrook, who finished with 27 and 10 points, respectively. Houston will need more from Westbrook (whose 4-of-15 shooting was compounded by seven turnovers) if they hope to advance to the Conference Finals.
Ben McLemore played three minutes and Austin Rivers was scoreless in seven minutes, as Houston ran a seven-man rotation with only Danuel House and Jeff Green getting much run off the bench. The Lakers have matched the small-ball approach and if JaVale McGee (left ankle) misses more time, they’ll likely go even smaller. More on that in a minute.
The Lakers have included Anthony Davis and LeBron James as ‘probable’ on their injury report all season long. It’s irritating from a fantasy perspective, since there’s rarely a legitimate injury to discuss -- for Sunday’s Game 2 win it was a sprained pinky finger for AD and a sore right groin for LBJ. Davis did briefly exit this game, but he soon returned and looked fantastic while putting up 34 points (15-of-24 FGs), 10 boards, four dimes and one block. If you see these superstars on the injury report next season, with a ‘probable’ tag, the odds are overwhelmingly in favor of them playing.
Anthony Davis said prior to this series that L.A. wanted to force the small-ball Rockets to compete with the Lakers’ size. “It’s going to be different for us, but at the same time we want to make them adjust to us,” he said. “The same way they try to have teams adjust to them playing small ball. We have to make sure that we dominate them on the offensive glass and also make them adjust to our size.” He attempted only four free throws in the Lakers’ Game 1 defeat, which is obviously too few against an opponent daring L.A. to beat them with size. The attempts were up to six tonight but he made only three of them, so that’s a work in progress. If McGee misses time with his left ankle injury, though, Davis will be playing even more center minutes than usual.
In Sunday’s Game 2 AD didn’t score until nearly seven minutes into the first quarter, after drawing a foul on P.J. Tucker -- minutes earlier, he’d pointed out to the refs that Tucker was hitting his arm during his shooting motion. Davis is a perennial MVP candidate and the Lakers need him to be elite to take over this series and ultimately win the West. The Lakers did get a boost with Rajon Rondo thriving in his second game off the bench, contributing 10 points, one 3-pointer, nine assists, five steals and three rebounds. It’s an imperfect metric, but Rondo was +28 in his 29 minutes of action, and L.A. basically matched Houston’s small lineup the entire way. His teammates and coach Frank Vogel heaped praise on him after the game, and given that L.A. rolled to a 117-109 victory, we’re likely to see more small-ball as this series continues.
The primary reason for that move was Markieff Morris getting hot with four 3-pointers in the first quarter (he scored 16 points on 6-of-8 shooting with five boards). Vogel said afterward that his coaching staff “obviously audibled at that point” but he still “sees a role for McGee/Howard in the series.” That’s not enthusiastic enough to persuade DFS managers to deploy them vs. the small-ball Rockets, and even LeBron seemed keen on smaller lineups. Discussing the importance of versatility, he said, “Be able to play vs. big teams, be able to play small, be able to play in-between — we built that from the beginning and we have that, always have that in our toolbox.” All signs point to L.A. playing small-ball in Game 3, so set your DFS lineups accordingly.
