We’re at the unofficial start of the 2018-19 fantasy hoops season. While all the mainstream NBA folks complain about how the Warriors are ruining the NBA, fantasy owners have a different slant on the topic because of how we have to address resting players late in the year. Adam Silver also hinted that the NBA isn’t going to change its injury reporting, so we have to get ready for a lot DNP-REST again.
More than ever, the team a player is on can be huge for his value. Not for pace or overall fantasy value for a team’s style, but whether or not that team will make the postseason with a late clinch date. On the reverse side, we still have to fear teams that will tank even though the NBA softened its incentive for tanking this season. That means teams projected to finish near the bottom of the standings could sit their veterans in April, which could put the kibosh on a fantasy title run.
This is a nine-category, head-to-head slow draft with these starters: PG, SG, G, SF, PF, F, C, C, UTIL, UTIL. Last year, the overarching theme to draft strategy was to make sure you get your bigs early. After doing this mock, it feels like that’s been magnified with how small the NBA is.
We did this draft with the incoming 2018-19 rookies available to draft. As we’ve mentioned on the pod, there is a lot of value based off what team lands a rookie. It’ll be interesting to see how the draft affects the values of Mo Bamba, Jaren Jackson Jr. and others. Of course, we don’t know how free agency is going to go, so we had to bake in some of those factors to where we take guys.
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This mock was with the Rotoworld crew (RW) and a handful of pod listeners, who kind of killed it. We’ll be breaking some of this down more on the Monday pod. We also did this draft from Monday to Friday, so just about all of it was before the big Kawhi Leonard news on Friday.
Here we go!
| Round 1 | |
| Jonas Nader (RW) | Anthony Davis |
| Ryan Knaus (RW) | Karl-Anthony Towns |
| Troy Balego | James Harden |
| Mike Gallagher | Giannis Antetokounmpo |
| Mark Sagun | Nikola Jokic |
| Tommy Beer (RW) | Kevin Durant |
| Steve Alexander (RW) | Russell Westbrook |
| Eli Mondesir Jr. | Damian Lillard |
| Connor Burks (RW) | LeBron James |
| Jared Johnson (RW) | Victor Oladipo |
| Arnie Moulton | Stephen Curry |
| Ewell Collins | Rudy Gobert |
Favorite Pick (not counting my own picks): Excluding AD, Rudy Gobert going 12th seems like it’s the best value here. Sure, he won’t score, but he thrived in PNR next to Donovan Mitchell and he’s a strong bet to lead the NBA in blocks.
Least Favorite: These 12 guys figure to be the consensus top 12 in nine-category formats, so there’s really no bad pick. That said, the one guy I’m pretty sure I won’t be drafting in this group is Russell Westbrook. His drop in FT% was brutal last season, so he’s a killer for three categories with FG% and turnovers. Plus, he doesn’t make treys like the other guards in this round. On the bright side, his No Vaseline post on social media suggests he could be in for some serious stat output.
My Pick: Going Giannis seemed like a pretty easy decision for me. Hopefully, he won’t have the gimpy knee that limited him at times, and you’d think the Bucks will be in the playoff seeding race. He’s still just 23! Could he get even better?
Analysis: Any DFS player will tell you all about the Anthony Davis injury scares, but he was just too good to finish the season. He has to go No. 1. KD and Curry did slide a tad because of the likely GSW rest, especially with Steph -- 11 is a great value, though. Sign me up for KAT at No. 2 for his youth and how he hasn’t missed a game yet. Crazy. Oladipo certainly deserves to be going in the top 12.
| Round 2 | |
| Ewell Collins | Joel Embiid |
| Arnie Moulton | Devin Booker |
| Jared Johnson | Jrue Holiday |
| Connor Burks | Andre Drummond |
| Eli Mondesir Jr. | Donovan Mitchell |
| Steve Alexander | Ben Simmons |
| Tommy Beer | Paul George |
| Mark Sagun | Jimmy Butler |
| Mike Gallagher | Kawhi Leonard |
| Troy Balego | LaMarcus Aldridge |
| Ryan Knaus | John Wall |
| Jonas Nader | Chris Paul |
Favorite Pick: Even with his recent leg issues, Jimmy Butler sliding to 20 is a serious value. When he was humming before his injury, he was a top-five player, so personally I would have taken him over anyone drafted in the second round. CP3 was also a terrific value.
Least Favorite: I refuse to draft John Wall and I was stunned Ryan took him here -- I would’ve bet he went CP3. Wrote this about Wall from a couple months ago:
We were absolutely shocked how fast Wall got over his double knee surgery summer in 2016, but now it’s come back to bite him. We have the word “knee” a whopping 350 times in all of our John Wall blurbs since he joined the league. It’s also worth a mention that his left knee surgery in 2016 was considered more serious than his right, and now he’s dealing with a left knee injury again. Plus, he’s had left knee tendinitis since 2010 and it’s been an ongoing issue, so that’s also discouraging. For a guy that relies on his athleticism like he does, it feels like he may have a tough time staying healthy or scoring efficiently.
My Pick: Wanted Jimmy, but was happy with Kawhi. This pick was made a few days before the big news on Friday, so he almost certainly wouldn’t have been there. The reports of Kawhi being unhappy about how the Spurs treated him last year is a great sign for his value. I still don’t think we can take him in the top 12 today and based on how he was injured earlier in his career, but he really shouldn’t go past 15. Plus, don’t forget Kawhi can be a fantasy monster even with a low-20s usage rate.
Analysis: The Booker pick was a complete homer selection, but it’s not a terrible one considering there was no way Booker would’ve made it back to him. I’d prefer him in the later third. With the Kawhi news, what’s up with LMA? If the Spurs get back young pieces or draft picks, you’d think Aldridge is gone. Ideally, he stays put, which makes this a solid selection in hindsight. I liked how Connor went FT% punt with Drummond and LeBron. Jrue and Mitchell are going to go in the second round in just about all competitive leagues. I’m on board with that price.
| Round 3 | |
| Jonas Nader (RW) | Clint Capela |
| Ryan Knaus (RW) | Kemba Walker |
| Troy Balego | |
| Mike Gallagher | Bradley Beal |
| Mark Sagun | Myles Turner |
| Tommy Beer (RW) | Khris Middleton |
| Steve Alexander (RW) | Al Horford |
| Eli Mondesir Jr. | DeMarcus Cousins |
| Connor Burks (RW) | Kyrie Irving |
| Jared Johnson (RW) | Nikola Vucevic |
| Arnie Moulton | DeAndre Ayton |
| Ewell Collins | Gary Harris |
Favorite Pick: Khris Middleton is an excellent player to take in the third for his high floor. Since his hamstring recovery was completed, he hasn’t missed a game. He was also super durable before that injury, too.
Least Favorite: Much like Wall, I’m not touching Kyrie Irving. Danny Ainge has already said he’s not expecting Kyrie to play 75 games, which probably means he’s not going to play in 65 games. The news on Kyrie should put draft repellent on him for the top 50.
My Pick: After rolling the dice on Kawhi, I wanted a guy that had an excellent chance for 75 games on a team that figures to fight for the playoffs. I was looking at either Middleton or Beal, so I went with Beal to diversify with Giannis. Hopefully, Mike Budenholzer doesn’t rest his Bucks like he did with his Hawks.
Analysis: This round really drives home the point of bigs being super valuable. Myles Turner was a massive flop last year, but he has such a high floor and upside for his blocks with strong percentages. Plus, Thaddeus Young potentially leaving could make the Pacers go with more two-C lineups. I like him in this round. Again, Ayton was a homer pick, but I’m on board with him in the 35-50 range -- we’ll see what’s up in Vegas. I don’t think I’ll roll with Otto Porter after some injuries to end his season, and I’m not drafting Boston guys because of how deep they are. Capela is a legit third-round guy, and Kemba was a really nice value considering how the PG quality really falls off soon. Boogie could pay off, but he likely will be a liability until December.
| Round 4 | |
| Ewell Collins | Gordon Hayward |
| Arnie Moulton | Hassan Whiteside |
| Jared Johnson | Draymond Green |
| Connor Burks | Kristaps Porzingis |
| Eli Mondesir Jr. | Eric Bledsoe |
| Steve Alexander | Jayson Tatum |
| Tommy Beer | Kyle Lowry |
| Mark Sagun | Jarrett Allen |
| Mike Gallagher | C.J. McCollum |
| Troy Balego | Klay Thompson |
| Ryan Knaus | Jamal Murray |
| Jonas Nader | Lonzo Ball |
Favorite Pick: This was easily Kyle Lowry. Yeah, we saw his minutes drop, but coach Nick Nurse is going to help the offense and I don’t see how Lowry’s minutes drop again. If he’s healthy, he’ll be a top-25 guy with top-15 upside.
Least Favorite: So many concerns with Hassan Whiteside, and it doesn’t help that his trade value is reportedly too low to deal. Plus, Bam Adebayo is reportedly one of the more untouchable players in Miami. Secondly, I won’t be touching Gordon Hayward.
My Pick: Durability is the name of the game again despite McCollum taking a step back last season.
Analysis: We won’t be able to steal the Blue Arrow this time around and absolutely needs to go in the fourth round -- maybe third. I thought there was a chance I’d have a shot at Murray in the fifth, but that didn’t happen. I was sniped on Jarrett Allen! With how shallow bigs are, he probably has to go in the top 50 of a nine-cat league. Draymond, Bledsoe and Porzingis were also solid value selections. As for Lonzo, his value could be taking a hit with the news of the Lakers possibly getting stacked. Maybe he takes over in Cleveland?
| Round 5 | |
| Jonas Nader (RW) | Josh Richardson |
| Ryan Knaus (RW) | Lauri Markkanen |
| Troy Balego | Marc Gasol |
| Mike Gallagher | Tobias Harris |
| Mark Sagun | D’Angelo Russell |
| Tommy Beer (RW) | DeMar DeRozan |
| Steve Alexander (RW) | Taurean Prince |
| Eli Mondesir Jr. | Paul Millsap |
| Connor Burks (RW) | Dwight Howard |
| Jared Johnson (RW) | Steven Adams |
| Arnie Moulton | Josh Jackson |
| Ewell Collins | Jeff Teague |
Favorite Pick: Considering how the bigs really fell off, Adams looks like a really nice value here. If PG-13 bolts to Cali, maybe there will be more usage going to Funaki. Although, he likely will attempt over 4.0 free throws per game, so that is bad news for a guy who made just 55.9% last season. I also really liked DeMar here for a high floor.
Least Favorite: It’s a little too early for Josh Jackson here. He’s not good in percentages, he doesn’t do a lot of non-scoring stuff, and he won’t make treys. Homer pick here.
My Pick: Tobias has only missed two games in the last two seasons and he lit it up in L.A., averaging 19.3 points, 6.0 boards, 3.1 assists, 1.2 steals and 2.2 treys. The Clippers are likely going to need him to score even more.
Analysis: It’s going to be really tough for us to trust Grizzlies again after their DNP-GAMEDAY to close last season, and Gasol hasn’t exactly been durable as he will turn 34 in 2019. Still, he could be a difference maker even at this risky price. Personally, I don’t think I can pay it. Somewhat surprisingly, not too much youth in this round with only Lauri Markkanen and Jackson as the only young guns. Taurean Prince had a big finish and he’s fully expected to have a heavy workload through the season. If DAR can stay healthy, he might be a nice pick, but you’re leaving yourself little room to hit this ADP value at around 50. No more sneaking J-Rich later in drafts and he’s absolutely worth this price. Teague is solid here, especially with the thinning position on the board.
| Round 6 | |
| Ewell Collins | Ricky Rubio |
| Arnie Moulton | Dennis Schroder |
| Jared Johnson | Jonas Valanciunas |
| Connor Burks | Blake Griffin |
| Eli Mondesir Jr. | Aaron Gordon |
| Steve Alexander | John Collins |
| Tommy Beer | Kevin Love |
| Mark Sagun | Robert Covington |
| Mike Gallagher | Lou Williams |
| Troy Balego | Darren Collison |
| Ryan Knaus | Nicolas Batum |
| Jonas Nader | Luka Doncic |
Favorite Pick: Tough one, but I’ll go with Kevin Love. Sure, he’s almost a lock to be traded, but maybe the Cavs hold him for a couple months to boost his trade value and remind teams that he could be a 20-10 guy again at age 30.
Least Favorite: About five years ago, the chances I’d draft Nic Batum were at about 75 percent, but these days he’s really lost his luster. His numbers were down in basically every counting stat and he’ll be turning 30 in December. Plus, losing Steve Clifford is somewhat bad news because Cliff didn’t want to rest his veterans.
My Pick: This was my favorite value pick for the entire draft. Coach Doc Rivers said he doesn’t believe in tanking, and Williams was an early-round guy for most of the year. He is going to have to play a ridiculous amount of minutes with a usage rate around 30. Plus some strong FT%, dimes and other goodies.
Analysis: If we knew for sure the Kings weren’t drafting Doncic, he would’ve been my favorite pick in this round. However, the Slovenian guard has a high probability to head to a team that has struggled to develop players while having some depth on the perimeter.
| Round 7 | |
| Jonas Nader (RW) | Jaren Jackson Jr. |
| Ryan Knaus (RW) | Jusuf Nurkic |
| Troy Balego | DeAndre Jordan |
| Mike Gallagher | Mo Bamba |
| Mark Sagun | Michael Porter Jr. |
| Tommy Beer (RW) | Mike Conley |
| Steve Alexander (RW) | Dennis Smith Jr. |
| Eli Mondesir Jr. | Rondae Hollis-Jefferson |
| Connor Burks (RW) | Tyreke Evans |
| Jared Johnson (RW) | Kris Dunn |
| Arnie Moulton | Zach LaVine |
| Ewell Collins | Evan Fournier |
Favorite Pick: Mr. Beer continues to take the safe, boring picks, but Conley at pick No. 78 may be his biggest value. Again, we can’t trust the Grizzlies no matter what owner Robert Pera says, but Conley was a fantasy cornerstone just two seasons ago. The Grizzlies won’t pull a tank move until January.
Least Favorite: Tyreke Evans had a perfect storm for his breakout year, but can we really expect that kind of role and for him to stay healthy again? Betting against him last year was a bad idea, but I’ll be avoiding him again based on his track record for almost a decade.
My Pick: I desperately needed a big man and was pleased to land Mo Bamba. Hopefully, he lands on the Hawks or the Mavs, which would potentially make him a bargain at this price point. I also turn on the upside switch after the first six rounds.
Analysis: There was little doubt Jonas was going to take JJJ and this is a solid spot for him -- again, bigs are thin here. We also saw a mini rookie run, but can we really count on Porter Jr. after such an injury-plagued year at MIZZOU? I don’t think I’ll be taking him as a top-eight rook. RHJ and DSJ were really nice values as both enter next season with added responsibility.
| Round 8 | |
| Ewell Collins | Brandon Ingram |
| Arnie Moulton | Julius Randle |
| Jared Johnson | Marvin Bagley III |
| Connor Burks | Kyle Kuzma |
| Eli Mondesir Jr. | Goran Dragic |
| Steve Alexander | Brook Lopez |
| Tommy Beer | Trae Young |
| Mark Sagun | Isaiah Thomas |
| Mike Gallagher | Jonathan Isaac |
| Troy Balego | Thaddeus Young |
| Ryan Knaus | T.J. Warren |
| Jonas Nader | Nikola Mirotic |
Favorite Pick: Isaiah Thomas is almost a perfect eighth-round pick. The Pizza Guy is one year removed from a top-12 fantasy season and he’ll have a full summer to get over that devastating hip issue from the end of the 2016-17 season.
Least Favorite: This round was pretty solid. Trae Young didn’t even hit six feet without shoes at the combine and he had the shortest wingspan there -- just one inch more than Tyler Ulis. Maybe he’s Baby Steph, but we saw so many teams get smaller guards in mismatches over the last three months. All this said, if Young is three inches taller with a six-inch gain on wingspan, I’d be all about him. Calling him the least favorite pick just shows how nitpicky I am here, so I’m dropping the least favorite going forward.
My Pick: The well was close to dry on bigs, so I went with a guy who could be a 1.5 x 1.5 in defensive stats in Jonathan Isaac. The Magic said they’ll develop Isaac slowly, but still he should get at least 25 minutes once he’s rolling.
Analysis: A pretty boring round overall besides Isaac, Young and Bagley III. Four Lakers went here and this was before the Kawhi news. Ingram and Kuzma could see their values get thrashed, or they could rise if they go to a team without offensive depth. Randle is likely gone and maybe he finds a spot where he’ll play 28-30 minutes. Maybe Bro-Lo takes a paycut, but either way he’s a fine value here.
| Round 9 | |
| Jonas Nader (RW) | Caris LeVert |
| Ryan Knaus (RW) | Nerlens Noel |
| Troy Balego | Spencer Dinwiddie |
| Mike Gallagher | Dejounte Murray |
| Mark Sagun | Joe Ingles |
| Tommy Beer (RW) | Will Barton |
| Steve Alexander (RW) | Harrison Barnes |
| Eli Mondesir Jr. | Tim Hardaway Jr. |
| Connor Burks (RW) | Kentavious Caldwell-Pope |
| Jared Johnson (RW) | Dario Saric |
| Arnie Moulton | De’Aaron Fox |
| Ewell Collins | Serge Ibaka |
Favorite Pick: THJ is potentially a mega steal. The Unicorn won’t be around for about two months of the season and the Knicks are expected to go with more youth.
My Pick: Dejounte comes off the board before the Kawhi news and I took him as a semi-handcuff. It turns out, this pick looks even better now because there’s a decent chance the Spurs may finally change their course. I could see Murray as a Westy Light with a 14/8/5 line with close to 2.0 steals. Plus, he made 46.0 percent from the field after the break, too. If you draft a lot of threes earlier, Murray should be a really nice fit on your team. If you’re punting, that works, too.
Analysis: Like a Colangelo burner, I’m not much of a Noel guy, but after 100 is a great spot for a guy who could fill up defensive stats. Maybe he starts for the Lakers? The Nets have a surplus at guard now that Jeremy Lin and D’Angelo Russell are going to be healthy. The Nets could trade Dinwiddie, and he likely wouldn’t be moved to a first-string role. Will “The Thrill” Barton is likely to come back to Denver, and he should thrive again.
| Round 10 | |
| Ewell Collins | Trevor Ariza |
| Arnie Moulton | Bobby Portis |
| Jared Johnson | J.J. Redick |
| Connor Burks | Andrew Wiggins |
| Eli Mondesir Jr. | Willie Cauley-Stein |
| Steve Alexander | Buddy Hield |
| Tommy Beer | Eric Gordon |
| Mark Sagun | Kelly Olynyk |
| Mike Gallagher | Jordan Bell |
| Troy Balego | Terry Rozier |
| Ryan Knaus | Danilo Gallinari |
| Jonas Nader | Patrick Beverley |
Favorite Pick: Sure, Pat-Bev can’t stay healthy, but he has the potential to be fantasy gold for defensive stats and a little of everything.
My Pick: Coach Steve Kerr has talked about a youth movement after his main five, and you would think Bell is the next guy up after he’s done downing that Henn Rock. We love his upside for blocks and steals and he should have a role regardless. If some team pays up for Kevon Looney, Bell could be a serious fantasy stud.
Analysis: If you’re brave enough to draft Kyrie -- I’m not -- you really have to pounce on Rozier in the eighth or ninth. Rozier’s value also went up in the past couple days as a possible trade piece. Wiggins couldn’t even crack top-150 value per game last year. I don’t know what the Kings are doing, and they continue to shorten their development chances on guys like WCS. He’s still an excellent pick here. Really liked Bobby Portis and Trevor Ariza here, too.
| Round 11 | |
| Jonas Nader (RW) | Jaylen Brown |
| Ryan Knaus (RW) | Enes Kanter |
| Troy Balego | Taj Gibson |
| Mike Gallagher | Wendell Carter Jr. |
| Mark Sagun | Collin Sexton |
| Tommy Beer (RW) | Larry Nance |
| Steve Alexander (RW) | Wilson Chandler |
| Eli Mondesir Jr. | Marquese Chriss |
| Connor Burks (RW) | Elfrid Payton |
| Jared Johnson (RW) | Bogdan Bogdanovic |
| Arnie Moulton | Jabari Parker |
| Ewell Collins | Jeremy Lin |
Favorite Pick: Larry Nance is potentially in a prime spot with the Cavs and he’s reportedly a “foundational piece” for the team. If Love is gone, Nance’s fantasy stock will rise like Bitcoin back in December. OK, maybe not that much.
Worst Pick Ever, Ever: Marquese Chriss. Just kidding. He had a strong finish before his late injury and he’s been around the team a lot. He burned me too hard last year, so I won’t be drafting him after a painful breakup. He could turn it around, though.
My Pick: I made my bed for my late rounds because I didn’t draft any true bigs in the first six rounds. If Carter winds up on the Hawks, Mavs, Bulls or maybe Magic, he’d be on the fantasy radar.
Analysis: A surprising amount of safe picks here, but Jaylen may have gained some upside if he is traded. It’s hard to imagine Elf Payton finding a starting job, but maybe cutting his hair can help his shot. Jabari Parker and Jeremy Lin should be over their injuries. Lin should have some serious upside, assuming he can keep guys like Caris LeVert at bay.
| Round 12 | |
| Ewell Collins | Boban Marjanovic |
| Arnie Moulton | Kent Bazemore |
| Jared Johnson | Bojan Bogdanovic |
| Connor Burks | Carmelo Anthony |
| Eli Mondesir Jr. | Markelle Fultz |
| Steve Alexander | Seth Curry |
| Tommy Beer | Derrick Favors |
| Mark Sagun | Frank Ntilikina |
| Mike Gallagher | James Johnson |
| Troy Balego | Malcolm Brogdon |
| Ryan Knaus | Danny Green |
| Jonas Nader | Montrezl Harrell |
Favorite Pick: FREE BOBAN!
My Pick: Just about all of the upside guys are gone, so I went safe with James Johnson. If Hassan Whiteside struggles or is dealt, that could help Johnson put up better boards, blocks and other stats.
Analysis: It wasn’t too long ago when Melo was a top-10 fantasy pick. Now? He was almost undrafted. I really liked the Baze pick, Favors could be in an excellent spot next year -- if healthy -- and maybe Seth Curry finds his magic again.
| Round 13 | |
| Jonas Nader (RW) | Marcus Smart |
| Ryan Knaus (RW) | Rajon Rondo |
| Troy Balego | Al-Farouq Aminu |
| Mike Gallagher | Dirk Nowitzki |
| Mark Sagun | Josh Hart |
| Tommy Beer (RW) | Avery Bradley |
| Steve Alexander (RW) | Dillon Brooks |
| Eli Mondesir Jr. | Cheick Diallo |
| Connor Burks (RW) | DeMarre Carroll |
| Jared Johnson (RW) | Jordan Clarkson |
| Arnie Moulton | Trey Burke |
| Ewell Collins | Emmanuel Mudiay |
Favorite Pick: Not a sexy late round at all, but I’m interested to see what happens with Josh Hart as a possible trade asset.
My Pick: Year after year, Dirk slides in drafts and he’s beat his ADP in each of his last two seasons. After I went for so much young upside, I wanted to grab a guy that could help me for the first two months.
Analysis: Again, you can see how much youth has been taken off the board here.
| Round 14 | |
| Ewell Collins | Harry Giles |
| Arnie Moulton | Mario Hezonja |
| Jared Johnson | John Henson |
| Connor Burks | Michael Beasley |
| Eli Mondesir Jr. | Kyle O’Quinn |
| Steve Alexander | Guerschon Yabusele |
| Tommy Beer | Marcin Gortat |
| Mark Sagun | Ivica Zubac |
| Mike Gallagher | Kevin Knox |
| Troy Balego | Kyle Anderson |
| Ryan Knaus | Dragan Bender |
| Jonas Nader | Jonah Bolden |
Favorite Pick: I loved Harry Giles going here. Could he pull a Ben Simmons? Nah. He’s been working out for a while now and he should be ready for next season. Note: Ewell confessed he made this pick based on the analysis of the pod. I also can’t wait for Johan Bolden in Vegas.
My Pick: I made this pick minutes after the report came out that the Knicks were impressed with Knox. They’ll be developing players and Knox could have a noteworthy role, especially if Kanter is gone.
Analysis: What a wild draft.
Great ready for a fun season, you guys!
