With the NFL draft around the corner, I’m releasing my pre-draft rookie ranks with in-depth analytical profiles. Below are my quarterback rankings. I’ve already released:
These rankings are fantasy football-focused and driven by statistical metrics I’ll explain throughout the profiles. These rankings also factor in expected NFL draft position. NFL draft position, and the scouting that drives it, plays a huge role in prospects’ success and failure. The biggest post-draft swings in my rankings will come from draft-dependent prospects locking in high draft capital and strong analytical prospects slipping more than expected in the draft.
Regarding draft position, it is my hope that, as much as possible, NFL general managers, scouts, and evaluators are not factoring in the various metrics that I rely on in my positional ranks. If they were, I could save a lot of time and just rank prospects by expected draft position. Obviously, there is overlap between what scouts are looking for and the type of stats teams tend to favor when putting their boards together. But ideally, the metrics below are adding a predictive element that we can add to draft position to better predict fantasy success. And for quarterbacks specifically, traits like rushing will have a much bigger fantasy impact than real life impact.
These profiles also include statistical comps. These comps are based on key metrics for quarterbacks like rushing production, deep throw ability, accuracy, size, and expected draft position. The comps won’t always be perfect stylistically. Instead, the primary purpose of the comps is to help illuminate a range of outcomes for each player and serve as a reminder that a player’s prospect profile is a helpful tool in projecting them to the next level even if an imperfect one.
Malik Willis
Statistical Comps:
Measurables - Willis is 6 feet and a half-inch, short for an NFL quarterback, but he’s not small, weighing 219 pounds at the Combine and 223 at his Pro Day. He did not do any athletic testing in the pre-draft process.
Age and experience - Willis will turn 23 in May after spending five years in college. A raw passer, his advanced age is a genuine concern. And Willis didn’t just spend five years in college; he had to change schools to land a starting job. Willis spent his first two seasons at Auburn, totaling just 14 passing attempts. He then transferred to Liberty and sat out 2019. As a redshirt junior and senior, he emerged as a dual-threat star.
Rushing and scrambling - We don’t have timed speed on Willis, and evaluators are confident that he won’t be at Lamar Jackson’s level as a rushing threat. But Willis still profiles as a valuable rusher, likely in the mold of Jalen Hurts. Willis rushed for 1,822 rushing yards* and 17 rushing touchdowns over the last two seasons. In games with at least 10 passing attempts, Willis rushed for 138 yards per game. Only Lamar Jackson ranks higher among Day 1-2 quarterbacks since 2015.
Willis also showed a willingness to add with his legs that goes beyond scheme. Kevin Cole has recently demonstrated a correlation between college scrambling and NFL success, and logically, any NFL success that scrambling creates will only be magnified in fantasy; long live the Konami Code. Willis was a prolific scrambler with 1,222 scramble yards, nearly matching his 1,359 yards on designed runs. Willis was also looking to create with his legs even when the defense didn’t force the issue, scrambling on 7% of kept clean dropbacks. Among Day 1-2 quarterbacks since 2015, only Jalen Hurts (9.1%), Jacoby Brissett (8.5%), Justin Fields (8%), Kyler Murray (7.1%), and Josh Allen (7.1%) scrambled on a higher percentage of their kept clean dropbacks.
At a minimum, Willis should have fantasy value as a rushing quarterback -- as long as he shows enough as a passer to keep himself in a starting role.
*(traditional college rushing stats include negative sack yardage)
Arm talent - As a two-year starter at Liberty from 2020-21, Willis was an impressive passer. In 2020, he threw for 2,250 yards, 20 touchdowns, and six interceptions with 9.0 adjusted yards per attempt. He followed that up with 2,857 yards, 27 touchdowns, 12 interceptions, and 8.4 AYA.
Willis was somewhat erratic, however. Among quarterbacks with 300+ dropbacks in 2021, he ranked 20th with a 3.5% turnover-worthy play rate. Kenny Pickett was the next highest in the PFF metric among quarterbacks who could also go first round, way down at QB53.
And as Rich Hribar has noted, Willis is particularly unreliable in the intermediate areas of the field. He ranked 121st in PFF passing grade on throws between 10-19 yards. And those throws made up just 21% of his attempts, the 91st highest rate in the FBS. He also failed to create big plays in that part of the field, producing just two big-time throws on intermediate passes each of the last two seasons.
Willis’ issues on intermediate throws raise questions about his overall accuracy. Willis finished his career with a 72% adjusted completion percentage, which is in a clear danger zone for first-round quarterbacks. In adjusted completion percentage, the six first-round quarterbacks directly ahead of Willis are alarming: Mitchell Trubisky, Jameis Winston, Carson Wentz, Jared Goff, Sam Darnold, and Josh Rosen.
However, Willis’ accuracy isn’t as concerning as it looks at first glance. Willis also finished ahead of Trey Lance, Lamar Jackson, and Josh Allen. If an NFL team asks Willis to win with intermediate timing throws in a west coast offense, it will be an all-time disaster. If his coaches build an offense around what he does well, it could be a very different story.
While Willis is raw as a pure passer, he excels downfield. Pro Football Focus’ big-time throw stat (throws at the high end of the PFF grading scale) illuminate just how special Willis is when throwing deep. Willis had 18 big-time throws on 20+ yard attempts in 2020 and an absurd 37 big-time deep throws in 2021. Downfield dimes are a huge part of what Willis does, making up 8.9% of his overall career attempts. That’s a huge percentage, the highest among all Day 1-2 quarterbacks dating back to 2015. Justin Fields (7.6%) and Josh Allen (7.2%) are the next closest.
Willis isn’t just good at throwing the deep ball; he’s happy to challenge the defense. Willis has attempted 20+ yard throws on 20% of his overall attempts. Only Josh Allen (22.4%) and Lamar Jackson (20.1%) were more aggressive downfield among first-round quarterbacks.
Under pressure - Willis was also looking to go deep when under pressure. Kevin Cole’s research suggests that quarterback performance under pressure—although less stable than clean pocket performance—could be one of the keys to prospect evaluation. Willis’ success rate under pressure isn’t ideal, but Willis’ best attribute as a passer, downfield passing, is only ramped up under duress. When kept clean, Willis had a career aDOT of 10.3. His aDOT jumped to 15.3 when pressured. And he was clutch under duress, hitting big-time throws at a career 7.6% rate. Among Day 1-2 quarterbacks since 2015, only Patrick Mahomes, Trevor Lawrence, Josh Allen, Tua Tagovailoa, Kyle Trask, and Jared Goff were better.
Willis’ ability to hit big plays is great, but he also has a major red flag under pressure: he takes a ton of sacks. Eric Eager has detailed how quarterbacks have significant control over their sack rates, and Kevin Cole has also recently argued that sacks are an undervalued component of quarterback prospect analysis. With that in mind, it’s not ideal that Willis led the FBS with 51 sacks in 2021. Willis wasn’t as bad in 2020, with only 20 sacks, but he still finished his career with a sack on 26% of his pressured dropbacks. Since 2015, only Justin Fields (28.9%) has a higher rate among highly drafted quarterbacks.
Outlook - Willis needs major development in critical parts of his game, but he has clear arm talent with an ability to beat defenses downfield. Willis’ deep ball proficiency is crucial in two ways. First, it indicates that he is not just a rushing quarterback; he has upside to develop into an elite deep-ball passer as well as one of the league’s biggest rushing threats. Second, Willis’ biggest passing strength is highly fantasy relevant. The top five quarterbacks in big-time deep throws have been fantasy stars in recent years:
- In 2021, Kyler Murray, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Joe Burrow, and Josh Allen.
- In 2020, Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Patrick Mahomes, Russell Wilson, and Derek Carr.
- In 2019, Russell Wilson, Deshaun Watson, Aaron Rodgers, Baker Mayfield, and Jameis Winston.
- In 2018, Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers, Ben Roethlisberger, Andrew Luck, and Russell Wilson.
Downfield success in the NFL doesn’t necessarily mean that quarterback will succeed as a real-life passer or even have multiple fantasy-relevant seasons. But even the less inspiring names above, like Winston (QB3), Carr (QB13), and Mayfield (QB18), had strong fantasy seasons for non-rushing threats when hitting big plays downfield.
Willis also comes with significant downside. His propensity to take sacks could drive his coaches nuts and is not a good sign for his ability to quickly work through his reads. He may be a backup quarterback by his second NFL contract.
But Willis’ skill set is a perfect fit for fantasy football. When combined with his rushing production, Willis’ ability to challenge downfield will give him a weekly ceiling. When combined with early first-round draft capital, Willis’ exciting skill set will make him highly desirable as a fantasy quarterback. He might well go down as an NFL bust, but in the meantime, Willis is likely to spend a year or more as one of the most sought-after players in Superflex dynasty leagues. And in the event that he hits his ceiling, Willis could be one of the most compelling playmakers in the NFL.
Superflex Rookie Pick Prospect Grade: Early 1st
Kenny Pickett
Statistical Comps:
Measurables - Pickett has solid size at 6 foot 3, 217 pounds. At the Combine, he ran a 4.73 40 with a 33-inch vertical and a 121-inch broad jump. Those numbers are impressive for a quarterback, but another measurable raised serious concerns. By now, you’re well aware that Pickett has tiny hands. Measuring just 8.5 inches at the Combine and 8.625 inches at his pro day, Pickett will be the first quarterback with sub-9-inch hands to be drafted in the first three rounds since at least 2015 and will have the smallest hands among current NFL quarterbacks.
Hand size does appear to be somewhat important for quarterbacks but not a hugely strong signal. Large hands have been a bullish indicator for Russell Wilson (10.25"), Josh Allen (10.125"), and Justin Herbert (10"), among others. But smaller hand size has also not been a problem for Kyler Murray (9.5"), Patrick Mahomes (9.25"), and Joe Burrow (9"). The trouble with Picket is that his hands are considerably smaller than Murray’s, Mahomes’, or Burrow’s. At some point, tiny hands would create issues for a player transitioning to throwing a larger ball. Whether Pickett is at that point is anyone’s guess.
Age and experience - Kenny Pickett played five seasons at Pittsburgh, using the extra year of eligibility provided by the pandemic. He turns 24 in June.
Rushing and scrambling - Pickett had just 40 designed rushing yards in 2021, which puts him behind a plethora of wide receivers and even a few tight ends. But Pickett produced 400 rushing yards on scrambles, which ranked eighth among FBS quarterbacks in 2021. And no other quarterback did this:
Every time I watch Kenny Pickett I make sure to take another look at this act of pure sorcery 🔥🔥🔥 pic.twitter.com/10Mx6jmAva
— Anthony Amico (@amicsta) March 22, 2022
Pickett was a scrambler throughout his career, with 34 scramble yards per 100 snaps. In the 2022 class, that ranks behind Willis, Corral, and Howell but ahead of prolific NFL scramblers like Patrick Mahomes, Deshaun Watson, and Justin Herbert. Pickett was also proactive in adding value with his legs. He scrambled on 5.7% of his non-pressured dropbacks. That ranks 81st percentile, above Russell Wilson, Trey Lance, Deshaun Watson, Patrick Mahomes, and Justin Herbert. Of course, just because Pickett is willing to take off and run like those quarterbacks doesn’t mean he’ll have the same rushing results, but Pickett is often categorized as a low-ceiling quarterback. Because of his scrambling ability, that’s probably more true of his real-life value than his fantasy value. Don’t get me wrong, Pickett needs to shock the world to become an elite fantasy quarterback, but as a capable and willing scrambler with decent size, he has a path to fantasy value in line with Ryan Tannehill—Hayden Winks’ comp for him.
Arm talent - Entering 2021, Pickett had a career-high of 3,098 passing yards and had never thrown for more than 13 touchdowns. He went off in 2021, throwing for 4,319 yards, 42 touchdowns, and seven interceptions in 13 games.
Pickett’s best trait is his accuracy. He had a very impressive 78.8% adjusted completion percentage in 2021 and a solid career rate of 75%, but the rest of Pickett’s underlying numbers aren’t inspiring. Pickett didn’t make a ton of exceptional throws, even at his peak. With 25 big-time deep throws in 2021, he ranked 11th in the FBS, which is impressive but not off the charts. He only had 30 big-time deep throws in 39 games before 2021.
Pickett also didn’t make a ton of wow throws at the intermediate level, with just two in 2021 and only nine in his career. The narrative on Pickett is that he is the most pro-ready quarterback in the 2022 class, but his lack of impressive intermediate throws undercuts that argument. Nevertheless, Pickett does have a critical trait that should help speed up his learning curve as a pro: he’s very comfortable against pressure.
Under pressure - Pickett ranks 54th percentile in adjusted completion percentage under pressure. In other words, his signature accuracy doesn’t crumble against the pass rush.
Pickett also delivered 31% of his big-time throws under pressure, a 75th-percentile rate. Pickett’s play under pressure hints at untapped upside. Raw stars like Josh Allen (38%), Lamar Jackson (37%), and Dak Prescott (36%) also delivered many of their best throws under pressure. And under the radar prospects like Davis Mills (32%) and Russell Wilson (28%) were also strong in this metric. Pickett is more good than great here, though. He ranks directly above Josh Rosen and Sam Darnold and directly below Cody Kessler and Marcus Mariota. Still, Pickett’s ability to hit big plays under pressure, combined with his willingness to scramble, runs counter to the idea that he is a low ceiling fantasy prospect.
(Quick tangent - 56% of Patrick Mahomes career big-time throws came while under pressure. No other Day 1-2 quarterback is above 41%. The guy is incredible.)
Outlook - If Pickett and Matt Coral are both mid-first-round picks, I’ll probably have Corral ranked higher in my post-draft ranks. Because, purely as a bet on talent, I prefer Corral. However, Pickett’s draft stock appears significantly more locked in, with a shot to go top 10, while Corral could plausibly fall to Round 2.
Draft capital is vital at the quarterback position. Not only does draft capital provide a strong signal on quarterback talent, but a high draft selection also comes with major franchise commitment. Daniel Jones would simply not be an NFL starter in the year 2022 if he had not been the sixth-overall pick. Blake Bortles (third) got five years with the Jaguars; Jake Locker (eighth) didn’t get benched until his fourth season; Sam Darnold (third) got three years with the Jets... the list goes on. If Pickett goes to the Panthers at six or the Falcons at eight, he’s very likely to be an NFL starter for three years at a minimum and more likely four to five. Pickett looks more likely to fall to the mid-first, but he could still land in a situation that gives him a multi-year shot as a starter.
Pickett is not a high-ceiling quarterback as an NFL prospect, and he may not be as NFL ready as the prevailing narrative suggests. Still, he could be surprisingly viable as a fantasy starter as an accurate passer who won’t get rattled by pressure and adds scrambling ability. In a play-action-heavy system that gets him on the move, Pickett could be a low-end fantasy QB1. More likely, he’ll be a low-end QB2, but QB2s with job security are very hard to come by in Superflex.
Superflex Rookie Pick Prospect Grade: Mid-Late 1st
Matt Corral
Statistical Comps:
Measurables - Corral weighed in at 6 foot 2, 212 pounds at the Combine. He did not work out in the pre-draft process.
Age and experience - Corral played four seasons at Ole Miss and turned 23 in January.
Rushing and scrambling - Corral is not a dual-threat, but he should have a Daniel Jones level of rushing ability, producing 506 rushing yards in 2020 and 614 in 2021. Corral’s approach toward rushing also looks promising. He finished sixth with 55 scramble attempts in 2021, and 53% of his scrambles came from a clean pocket. Like Pickett, he is a willing and able scrambler.
Arm talent - Corral put up back-to-back 3,000+ yard passing seasons in 2020-21. He was extremely efficient in 2020 with 10.2 AYA on the back of 3,337 passing yards and 29 touchdowns despite throwing 14 interceptions. His production was less impressive in 2021, with 3,349 yards and 20 touchdowns in 13 games. Corral did at least drastically reduce his interception total in 2021 to just five.
Corral’s best trait as a passer is his accuracy, ranking 71st percentile in adjusted completion percentage, but Corral’s passing style isn’t particularly exciting from a fantasy perspective. He had just 17 big-time deep throws in 2021, 39th among FBS quarterbacks. He was better in 2020 with 19 big-time deep throws. Still, Corral ranks 31st among 47 Day 1-2 quarterbacks in big-time deep throws per snap since 2015, and Corral also attempted downfield throws at a below-average rate for his career. Bottom line: Corral is not likely to complete a ton of splash plays downfield.
Corral also didn’t make many big plays on the intermediate level, with just seven career big-time throws between 10-19 yards. That ties Sam Howell and isn’t very far above Malik Willis (4). Corral’s lack of intermediate big-time throws might not be an issue given his accuracy. Mac Jones (6) actually had fewer and has transitioned quickly to smoothly operating an NFL offense. Tua Tagovailoa (6) also appears perfectly capable as an intermediate NFL passer. Like those quarterbacks, Corral’s lack of big-time intermediate throws could be partially related to the design of his college offense, which was very RPO-heavy, leading to a lot of short throws.
Under pressure - Crucially, Corral’s best trait, his accuracy, doesn’t deteriorate under pressure. Instead, his adjusted completion percentage jumped to the 81st percentile when under duress.
However, Corral’s unexciting playstyle didn’t change when the defense was bearing down on him. When kept clean, he had a 9.5 aDOT, which inched up to 10.6 when facing pressure. Corral isn’t a bad deep passer, but it’s not a strength or a go-to skill.
Outlook - Corral played within his system as a passer, regardless of the situation. An NFL team may view that, understandably, as an asset. But a consistently conservative quarterback isn’t the most thrilling archetype for fantasy.
Then again, Corral could easily be asked to do more in the NFL than he was in college. If his conservative passing profile evolves into a more well-rounded attack at the NFL level, Corral’s accuracy and mobility offer an enticing fantasy ceiling.
Corral seems to be slipping a bit in the pre-draft process. If he falls to the second round, he’ll profile like a more mobile version of Davis Mills. With first-round draft capital, it’s easier to buy into Corral as a more mobile Baker Mayfield.
Superflex Rookie Pick Prospect Grade: Mid-Late 1st
Desmond Ridder
Statistical Comps:
Measurables - Ridder has good height at 6 foot 3 but is a bit slender at 211 pounds. He flashed impressive speed at the Combine with a 4.52 40 and also showed good burst with a 36-inch vertical and a 127-inch broad jump.
Age and experience - Ridder redshirted as a freshman and then played four seasons at Cincinnati. He turns 23 in August.
Rushing and scrambling - Ridder’s rushing ability is the main attraction for fantasy. As a senior, Ridder rushed for 355 yards and six touchdowns. He was even better in 2020, rushing for 592 yards and 12 touchdowns in 10 games, and he was consistently productive on the ground in all four of his seasons, totaling at least 583 yards and five touchdowns in each of his first three seasons. At only 211 pounds, he’s undersized, but after running a 4.52 40, it’s likely some teams view him as a true rushing threat.
Still, it’s important to note that Ridder was nowhere near the NFL’s biggest rushing threats in rushing yards per game. Lamar Jackson (183 rushing yards per game*), Malik Willis (138), Jalen Hurts (121), and Trey Lance (120) were all well above Ridder, who rushed for just 72 rushing yards per game. He’s more in line with Marcus Mariota (90), Patrick Mahomes (78), DeShone Kizer (76), Justin Fields (74), Carson Wentz (66), and Daniel Jones (60).
Ridder does have a major red flag on his rushing resume: he only averaged 32 scramble yards per 100 snaps, which ranks behind Willis, Corral, Howell, and Pickett in the 2022 class. Ridder is respectable as a scrambler, but his overall profile looks more like Patrick Mahomes or Titans-era Mariota than a quarterback whose rushing will be a major component of his fantasy value.
*excluding games with less than 10 passing attempts -- rushing threats often see sub-package work early in their careers, which skews things.
Arm talent - Ridder emerged in his senior season with 3,334 passing yards, 30 touchdowns, and eight interceptions in 14 games, and he was impressively efficient with 9.2 AYA.
Ridder scored in the 86th percentile in deep ball rate, indicating he’s a willing downfield thrower, and he displayed a slightly above-average deep ball. If he lands in the right system, he could develop into a difference-making fantasy quarterback.
That system will need to work around Ridder’s accuracy, which is a significant red flag. He ranks in the 27th percentile in adjusted completion percentage.
Under pressure - Ridder’s already suspect accuracy absolutely withers under duress. He ranks in the second percentile in adjusted completion percentage under pressure.
Ridder’s issues with pressure don’t end there. He also had a sixth-percentile sack rate. We talk a lot more about Willis’ penchant for taking sacks -- to be fair, Willis is worse at avoiding them -- but Ridder was sacked on 24% of his pressured dropbacks, which ranks behind only Justin Fields (29%), Sam Howell (27%), and Willis (26%). The next highest quarterbacks on the list are Christian Hackenberg (23%), DeShone Kizer (23%), and Joe Burrow (22%). Ridder could overcome his high sack rate, but it’s a major red flag.
Although his accuracy has dropped through the floor under pressure, Ridder was at least willing to get aggressive, which could help fantasy managers forgive him for his sacks. Ridder had a 9.7 aDOT when kept clean. That jumped to 14.5 when under pressure, which is the biggest aDOT increase in the 2022 class. So, sure, Ridder’s completion percentage craters under pressure, and he takes sacks, but at least he’s gunning for the big play.
Outlook - If Ridder is asked to be a traditional quarterback, it could get ugly. Pressure sensitivity with 25th percentile accuracy doesn’t exactly scream generational pocket passer. Instead, Ridder’s easiest path to becoming a fantasy star is to develop into a genuine dual threat. Ridder will need to show more willingness to run than he did at Cincinnati, but if he does, his speed indicates a high ceiling as a rusher. If he can also surprise as a passer, his athleticism could help him grow into a reasonable approximation of Dak Prescott.
Superflex Rookie Pick Prospect Grade: Late 1st - Early 2nd
Sam Howell
Statistical Comps:
Measurables - Howell weighed in at the Combine at 6 foot 1, 218 pounds. He was up to 224 at his Pro Day. He didn’t work out in the pre-draft process.
Age and experience - Howell started as a true freshman and is by far the youngest of the top quarterback prospects. He doesn’t turn 22 until September, when Willis, Corral, and Ridder will be 23 and Pickett will be 24.
Rushing and scrambling - Howell ranks just behind Josh Allen, Russell Wilson, and Joe Burrow in rushing yards per game and just ahead of Zach Wilson, Trevor Lawrence, and Baker Mayfield. While not a true dual-threat, Howell was very impressive in 2021 with 502 scramble yards, third in the FBS behind Malik Willis (636) and Jayden Daniels (506).
Howell was also looking to create on his own with 29 scramble attempts when kept clean, the second-highest total in the FBS. The defense didn’t need to force Howell’s hand; if he saw an opening, he was willing to tuck it and run. That could ultimately become a frustrating habit in the NFL if he is bailing on plays too quickly, but a high scramble rate will help him score fantasy points even as a raw passer.
Arm talent - Howell emerged as a rusher in 2021, his worst season as a passer. As a junior, Howell threw for a career-low 3,038 yards and 24 touchdowns and a career-high eight interceptions, but he ran for 828 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns, smashing his previous career production of 181 rushing yards and six scores.
Before 2021, Howell was more productive through the air with a career-high 3,641 passing yards and 38 touchdowns as a true freshman and 3,586 yards, 30 touchdowns, and a spectacularly efficient 11.1 AYA as a sophomore. Howell’s junior year passing slump is a concern, but he still posted three straight 3,000-yard seasons at North Carolina and started making more plays with his legs as his passing production fell off.
Howell’s ability to get back on track in the NFL may be system dependent. Like Malik Willis, Howell is a talented deep passer, with big-time deep throws making up 7% of his overall attempts. Among Day 1-2 quarterbacks, only Willis (8.9%), Justin Fields (7.6%), and Josh Allen (7.2%) had a higher percentage. Howell was also willing to go downfield. He didn’t force the issue like Allen did (22.4%), but Howell’s 16.9% deep ball rate is above average.
Howell shares another similarity with Willis... lack of success on intermediate throws. Although Howell’s career accuracy is slightly above average, he has not made many impressive plays between 10-19 yards downfield. In three full seasons as a starter, Howell has just seven big-time throws on medium-depth passes. Big-time throws are generally more likely to be deep passes, but that hasn’t stopped other three-year starters like Josh Rosen (21), Trevor Lawrence (19), Patrick Mahomes (18), and Sam Darnold (18) from racking them up.
Under pressure - Howell shares another red flag with Willis. He takes a ton of sacks. In fact, he has a slightly higher sack rate (27% of pressured dropbacks) than Wills (26%). In 2021, Howell finished second in the FBS to Willis with 49 sacks. He also finished third in 2020 with 33 sacks and sixth in 2019 with 37 sacks. Howell is virtually guaranteed to have a high sack rate in the NFL. This isn’t necessarily a deal-breaker; Joe Burrow took 36 sacks in each of his final two seasons, takes sacks at a high rate in the NFL, and is still an elite quarterback. Still, Howell’s sack rate is far from ideal. Sack rate was one of Christian Hackenberg‘s many red flags. It was also a key red flag for DeShone Kizer, Zach Wilson, Mason Rudolph, and Baker Mayfield. Likely to be a second-round pick, Howell’s penchant for taking sacks looks bad enough that it could get him benched.
Howell isn’t a disaster under duress, though. He delivered a big-time deep throw on 6.4% of his pressured dropbacks with 28% of his career big-time throws coming under pressure -- both of which are solidly above average. Howell was clearly looking to make big plays under pressure; his aDOT jumped from 10.4 when kept clean to 15.6 when pressured. Perhaps with a more talented supporting cast, he can get the ball out quicker while still gunning for big plays when the chance arises.
Outlook - In general, Howell looks like the type of quarterback who could impress coaches who already believe in him with his big arm and scrambling ability, but Howell may have trouble winning over skeptical coaches as he takes sacks and improvises. As always, draft capital is key, and Howell looks very likely to fall to the second round.
Still, Howell is a capable and willing scrambler who should add fantasy production on the ground. He’s also a strong deep passer who actively looks to challenge defenses. If he gets an extended shot as a starter, he’s likely to be a solid QB2 in the mold of Baker Mayfield.
More likely, he’ll end up being a bit like Mason Rudolph -- a quarterback who needs an offense built around his non-traditional skill set but who doesn’t have a franchise committed to seeing that through.
Superflex Rookie Pick Prospect Grade: 2nd
