Surprises among team defenses in fantasy football are hardly unprecedented. In fact, one of the reasons some managers wait to draft defenses is because the position can be so unpredictable from year to year.
Still, for the most part the top of this year’s leaderboard is low on jaw droppers. We can’t be stunned that the Dallas Cowboys are leading all defenses in fantasy points per game for a second straight year. The New England Patriots are fantasy relevant a lot more often than not. The Buffalo Bills and Philadelphia Eagles both rank inside the top five in both yards and points allowed, so it stands to reason they would be as solid in fantasy as they are in reality.
However, there’s one team no one expected to see ranked in the top-five nine weeks into the season—the Seattle Seahawks.
It’s not just a matter of Seattle’s ranking. It’s where they are now versus where they were just a month or so ago. Five weeks into the season, the Seahawks ranked at or near the bottom of the league in a number of statistical categories. Seattle barely ranked inside the top 20 in fantasy points.
Over the last month though, Seattle has looked like a completely different team. The Seahawks are allowing just 16.5 points per game. They are getting to quarterbacks. Forcing turnovers, Winning games. And over that span, only the Patriots have more fantasy points among defenses.
Seattle head coach Pete Carroll told reporters last week that it was simply a matter of getting the players to buy in—and then putting them in position to succeed.
“We were all thinking that we had to get this rolling,” Seattle coach Pete Carroll said. “We all just kind of put our heads together, stayed together, stayed connected, and now we are on the end of it, and we are trying to really build something big.”
Whatever it is, it’s working. And while Seattle faces a Tampa Bay Buccaneers team this week in Germany that has allowed the eighth-fewest fantasy points per game to defenses, the Seahawks are no longer a defense to be cast to the waiver wire just because its matchup isn’t ideal.
Who knew?
THE NO-DOUBTERS
Philadelphia Eagles (vs. Washington Commanders)
The Eagles are the last remaining undefeated team in the NFL, in no small part because of a defense that ranks third in yards allowed, third against the pass, fourth in points allowed, seventh in sacks, first in the league with 18 takeaways and third in fantasy points at the position. Now that stout defense faces a Washington Commanders team that has surrendered the fourth-most fantasy points per game to defenses this season. Only three teams this year have allowed more sacks than the 29 the Commanders have given up in 2022.
Dallas Cowboys (at Green Bay Packers)
As was mentioned in the intro, the Dallas Cowboys are leading all defenses in fantasy points per game as they come off the bye. Despite having already had that week off, the Dallas defense leads the NFL with 33 sacks. The Cowboys aren’t leading the league in takeaways as they did a season ago, but they rank a lot closer to the top of the league than the bottom. Dallas is also 10th in the league in total defense and third in scoring defense ahead of meeting a Packers team that was just held to nine points by a Lions team that probably sports the worst defense in the NFL.
San Francisco 49ers (vs. Los Angeles Chargers)
When last we saw the 49ers, they were beating the brakes off the defending Super Bowl champions, and the off week gave the team an opportunity for players like defensive lineman Arik Armstead and linebacker Dre Greenlaw to get healthy. The Niners are the NFL’s No. 1 defense in terms of yards allowed. San Francisco is sixth in points allowed. The 49ers have tallied 26 sacks (eighth in the league), have logged nine takeaways and are replete with talent at all three levels. The Chargers haven’t been a good fantasy matchup for defenses this season, but that Los Angeles offense is also dealing with injuries up front and especially at wide receiver.
Denver Broncos (at Tennessee Titans)
The Broncos have failed to meet expectations in 2022, but as Denver prepares to face the Titans in Tennessee the defense can’t be held responsible for those struggles. No team in the AFC allows fewer yards per game than the 288.4 the Broncos are giving up. Only the Buffalo Bills are surrendering fewer points per game than the 16.5 Denver is allowing. The Broncos are also quietly ninth in the league with 24 sacks. Add in a Titans team that could be running a completely one-dimensional offense under rookie quarterback Malik Willis, and the ingredients are there for a good fantasy outing.
Buffalo Bills (vs. Minnesota Vikings)
So, here’s a bit of hard-hitting, deep cutting fantasy analysis. The Buffalo Bills are good at playing defense. Despite dealing with injuries this season, the Bills are still fourth in total defense, seventh against the pass, sixth against the run, first in the league in points allowed at 14.8, 11th in sacks with 23, fourth in takeaways with 15 and fourth in fantasy points. The Vikings are an admittedly bad fantasy matchup—only two teams allow fewer fantasy points to opposing defenses in 2022. But the Bills are as matchup-proof as a team defense can reasonably be expected to be.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. Seattle Seahawks)
The 2022 season hasn’t gone according to plan for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and in fairness Tampa’s defense isn’t quite the force it was the past couple of seasons. But the Buccaneers are still ninth in the NFL in total defense, fifth in pass defense, fifth in scoring defense and ninth among all defenses in fantasy points. Geno Smith, Kenneth Walker, Tyler Lockett, DK Metcalf and the Seahawks aren’t an offense to be dismissed by any stretch. But the team ranks in the middle of the pack in fantasy points allowed to defenses, so a decent stat line is well within reason.
STREAMERS OF THE WORLD, UNITE!
New York Giants (vs. Houston Texans)
A bit of the shine came off the Giants in Seattle in Week 8. But the Giants are still a 6-2 team that has wildly exceeded any reasonable expectations for the season. The Houston Texans, on the other hand, have just about exactly met expectations—which is to say the team is a dumpster fire. The Texans are 29th in the league in total offense, 28th in scoring offense and 10th in fantasy points per game allowed to defenses. The Giants haven’t been an especially productive fantasy defense this season, but the Texans are just what the doctor ordered to spur a big week.
Arizona Cardinals (at Los Angeles Rams)
The Cardinals haven’t had a ton of defensive success this season—the team has allowed the seventh-most yards per game at 368.9. Only the Detroit Lions have surrendered more points per game than the 26.8 the Redbirds are giving up. This past week, the Cardinals allowed 31 points to the Seahawks at home. But the pick-six that linebacker Zaven Collins logged in the contest was Arizona’s league-leading fifth defensive score of the season. Now the Cardinals face the reeling Rams, who have allowed more fantasy points to defenses this season than any other team in the NFL.
Indianapolis Colts (at Las Vegas Raiders)
The Indianapolis Colts are a team seemingly in the midst of imploding. The offense is a disaster. Sam Ehlinger appears completely overmatched at quarterback. The team’s new head coach has no experience as a coach in college or the pros. But amid all the chaos there’s a defense that isn’t half bad. Only four teams in the league are allowing fewer yards per game than the Colts. The Colts are a respectable 13th in the league in scoring defense. And the team the Colts face this week (the Las Vegas Raiders) is doing more than a little imploding of its own.
New Orleans Saints (at Pittsburgh Steelers)
You wouldn’t know it from watching the Saints get gashed by the Ravens Monday night, but in terms of yardage allowed this season New Orleans has actually been pretty good. However, a lack of big plays and the league’s fifth-worst scoring defense have relegated the Saints to fantasy irrelevance—unless the matchup is right. If ever there was a week for that, this is it. The Pittsburgh Steelers are the NFL’s second-worst scoring offense. Pittsburgh has turned the ball over 14 times—tied for second-most in the league. The Steelers have surrendered 21 sacks. And just two teams have given up more fantasy points to team defenses.
Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. New Orleans Saints)
That the Steelers are even listed in this section of this column speaks to how bad things have gotten in Pittsburgh this year. The Steelers are in better shape defensively than on offense, but without T.J. Watt the team has taken a sizable step backward there as well. As a matter of fact, since Week 2 the Steelers are the lowest-scoring fantasy defense in the league. However, the Steelers have had an extra week to get healthy ahead of a matchup with a Saints team that ranks fifth in the league in fantasy points per game given up to defenses.