There’s good news and bad news for fantasy managers as this vitally important Week 13 of the 2020 season begins.
The good news is that a number of fantasy defenses put together big games in Week 12. The Atlanta Falcons racked up five sacks, five takeaways, scored a defensive touchdown and allowed just six points against the Las Vegas Raiders. The Carolina Panthers scored defensive touchdowns on consecutive series on fumble returns against the Minnesota Vikings. The San Francisco 49ers notched two sacks, took the ball away four times and scored defensively against the Los Angeles Rams.
That is by no means an exhaustive list.
The bad news is that none of those big efforts (or the teams that produced them) will be of much use to fantasy managers in Week 13. The Panthers (along with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers) are on a bye this week. The Falcons had just three sacks and one takeaway when they played the Saints back in Week 11. The 49ers are playing better defensively but have to face a potent Bills Offense on Monday night in Arizona.[[ad:athena]]
There’s also the scheduling havoc that the COVID-19 pandemic has wrought of late. This Week 13 article is going live over a day before the last game of Week 12 will (hopefully) be played—a game that features two of the top-five defenses in fantasy football. The triple-postponement of that contest between the Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers has already caused the Ravens’ Week 13 contest to move to Tuesday, December 8.
It’s just one more wrinkle in this oddest of years—that happens to be coming in a week when a lot of fantasy managers have to get a win to move on to the playoffs.
All we can do is play the hand we are dealt.
So, let’s shuffle up the deck and deal.
THE NO-DOUBTERS
Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. Washington Football Team)
The Ravens aren’t the only team who had their Week 13 game moved—Pittsburgh’s contest with Washington has been bumped from Sunday to Monday. The Steelers will also be shorthanded Wednesday against the Ravens, with defensive end Stephon Tuitt on the COVID-19 list. Still, we are talking about a Steelers Defense that has ranked at or near the top of the NFL in a number of statistical categories, including takeaways and sacks. And a Washington team that ranks inside the top 10 in fantasy points per game allowed to defenses. That’s a winning combo.
Miami Dolphins (vs. Cincinnati Bengals)
The Dolphins were another team that shined defensively in Week 12—Miami allowed just 260 net yards and three points against the hapless Jets while notching three sacks and a pair of interceptions. This week the Dolphins get a matchup that might somehow be even better—last week against the New York Giants, the Cincinnati Bengals had just 155 total yards, allowed a pair of sacks, turned it over three times and scored just one offensive touchdown. With Brandon Allen under center in Cincinnati, the Bengals have become a team for fantasy managers to target defensively in the playoffs.
Kansas City Chiefs (vs. Denver Broncos)
Things were already bad for the Denver offense—the Broncos came into Week 12 leading the NFL in giveaways and third in the league in fantasy points per game allowed to defenses. Then things got ridiculous—with a practice squad receiver under center because all of Denver’s quarterbacks landed on the COVID-19 list, the Broncos actually completed more passes to players for the New Orleans Saints than to guys in orange shirts. When these teams first met in Denver back in Week 7, the Chiefs piled up four takeaways, three sacks, two non-offensive touchdowns and posted one of the biggest fantasy scores of any defense in 2020.
Green Bay Packers (vs. Philadelphia Eagles)
The Green Bay defense is coming off arguably its best fantasy performance of the season in last week’s win over the rival Bears—Green Bay allowed 25 points, but notched four takeaways, three sacks and returned a fumble for a touchdown. But as well as the Green Bay defense played against the Bears, this recommendation is all about facing Carson Wentz and the Philadelphia Eagles. The Eagles are a complete disaster on offense—Wentz has been sacked a staggering 46 times this year and leads the league in interceptions with 15.
Baltimore Ravens (at Dallas Cowboys)
Now, there are admittedly quite a few variables in play here that could cause unease for fantasy managers, whether it’s the fact this game has been bumped to next Tuesday or the COVID-19 outbreak that has left a dozen players on the Ravens 53-man roster ineligible to play against the Pittsburgh Steelers Sunday. But quite a few (if not all) of those players could be back on the field for a Week 13 tilt against a Dallas Cowboys team that crashing back to earth at home on Thanksgiving against Washington. No team in the NFL has allowed more fantasy points per game to defenses in 2020.
New Orleans Saints (at Atlanta Falcons)
Since Week 8, there isn’t a higher-scoring defense in fantasy football than the New Orleans Saints, and even with the caveat that last week’s big line against the Broncos carries a sizable asterisk the Saints have still been on one heck of a roll on that side of the ball. It’s understandable to have some reluctance about New Orleans after the Falcons lit up the Raiders for 43 points in Week 12, these teams just met in Week 11. In that game, the Saints sacked Matt Ryan eight times, picked him off twice and gave up just nine points.
Chicago Bears (vs. Detroit Lions)
Yes, the Bears were just embarrassed at home by the Packers, allowing 41 points in a blowout loss. Yes, the Bears have now lost five in a row after starting the season 5-1. But while the defense struggled without defensive linemen. Akiem Hicks against the Pack, for most of the year it has played well, and there’s a chance that Hicks could be back in Week 13. Even if he isn’t, Chicago isn’t facing Aaron Rodgers and a loaded Packers Offense on Sunday. The Bears are hosting Matthew Stafford and a Detroit Lions that just fired head coach Matt Patricia after getting blasted at home on Turkey Day.
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Seattle Seahawks (vs. New York Giants)
For much of the 2020 season, the Seattle defense wasn’t just bad—it was historically bad. Like on a pace to be the worst defense in league history bad. But since the arrival of edge-rusher Carlos Dunlap, the Seahawks have turned a page and then some on that side of the ball, including a six-sack effort with just 250 yards allowed in Monday’s win over the Philadelphia Eagles. The New York Giants have admittedly played better offensively during their recent win streak, but the G-Men remain a bottom-five matchup in terms of both yardage and points and a top-10 fantasy matchup for opposing defenses.
Las Vegas Raiders (at New York Jets)
Sam Darnold is like Christmas coming early for fantasy managers. Over the past couple of weeks with Joe Flacco under center, the Jets had actually moved the football and scored points. It was quite unsettling—a disturbance of the natural order. But as soon as Darnold’s shoulder was well enough for the soon-to-be ex-Jets starter to take “control” of the offense again, it went right back to being completely and utterly unable to do, well, anything. The Jets have said that they are riding with Darnold in Week 13—and that means fantasy managers who can should ride with the Raiders against him.
Minnesota Vikings (vs. Jacksonville Jaguars)
The Vikings have struggled defensively in 2020, especially on the back end—Minnesota is 25th in the NFL in pass defense and 26th in scoring defense. They also didn’t fare especially well against the Carolina Panthers in Week 12, although the 27 points Minnesota allowed comes with the caveat that two of the touchdowns were scored on fumble returns by Panthers safety Jeremy Chinn. At any rate, this is purely a matchup call—the Jaguars are on their third starting quarterback of the season in Mike Glennon and rank 10th in fantasy points allowed to team defenses this season.
Buffalo Bills (at San Francisco 49ers)
The Bills have been neither great nor terrible defensively in 2020—last week’s 17 points allowed, 1 takeaway and three sacks are a fairly good microcosm for the unit as a whole. The San Francisco 49ers also aren’t a great fantasy matchup—the team ranks just inside the top half of the league in fantasy points surrendered to defenses. However, the Niners did turn the ball over three times last week in Los Angeles and gave up a defensive touchdown. The Bills aren’t a great play in Week 13, but there is some streaming upside here.
Detroit Lions (at Chicago Bears)
It wouldn’t be a week of Getting Defensive without a “Hail Mary” team defense play, and in Week 13 the Detroit Lions certainly qualify. Detroit’s defensive woes were plainly evident on Thanksgiving, and allowing 41 points to the Texans at home is one of the things that got Matt Patricia the door. The thing is, the Chicago Bears are almost as bad offensively as the Lions are defensively—the Bears were sixth in fantasy points given up to team defenses in 2020 before Green Bay posted a big line last Sunday night. As desperation plays go, you could do worse.
CAVEAT EMPTOR, FOLKS
Cleveland Browns (at Tennessee Titans)
Two weeks ago, against the Philadelphia Eagles, the Browns showed off the big-play upside that made the defense fantasy relevant over the first half of the season—five sacks, three takeaways, a defensive touchdown, and a safety. However, last week against the Jaguars, it was a different story—with edge-rusher Myles Garrett on the COVID-19 list, the Browns were invisible from a fantasy perspective against the Jacksonville Jaguars. No sacks. No takeaways. And no chance that you should start them in the worst fantasy matchup for team defenses against the Tennessee Titans in Week 13.
Los Angeles Rams (at Arizona Cardinals)
The Los Angeles Rams are an excellent defensive football team—the Rams rank inside the top-10 in the NFL in a litany of categories, whether it’s total defense, scoring defense or sacks. The Rams are also a top-five fantasy defense in most scoring systems coming off a nice game against the San Francisco 49ers that included three takeaways and a defensive touchdown. If you have been riding the Rams all season long, you probably are again this week. Just know going in if you have to have the win in Week 13 that the Cardinals have been a bottom-10 fantasy matchup for the position most of this year.
