In some respects, Week 13 was yet another example of how much we don’t know in fantasy football.
Two of the first defenses off fantasy draft boards this summer were both in action on Sunday. One (the Chicago Bears) had performed as advertised and then some, ranking first overall at the position by a sizable margin. The other (the Jacksonville Jaguars) has been a fantasy disaster, ranking outside the top 20 on the year.
The Bears were playing a three-win New York Giants team that was tied for the NFC lead in sacks allowed. The Jaguars were playing a white-hot Indianapolis Colts team that had won five straight coming into the game.
So of the course the exact opposite of what we expected happened.
In New York, the Bears did sack Eli Manning three times and intercepted a pass. But Chicago also allowed 338 yards and 30 points—finishing outside the top 20 defenses for the week. Meanwhile, in Jacksonville the reeling Jaguars stopped the bleeding with a 6-0 shutout that included a top-10 defensive performance borne of just 265 yards allowed, three sacks and two takeaways.
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Given that it happened in the final week of the fantasy regular season in many leagues, it was a harsh lesson in one of fantasy football’s great truths—that for all the research, legwork and checking of matchups, you never really know how things are going to turn out on any given Sunday.
Games aren’t played on paper.
That doesn’t mean we won’t keep trying though—so it’s back on the horse we go with a look at the best (and worst) team defense matchups for Week 14.
THE NO-DOUBTERS
Jacksonville Jaguars (at Tennessee Titans)
It may well be that the Jaguars were just lulling us into a false sense of security with that performance against the Colts—snowing us into thinking that they have things figured out so they can crush our hopes and dreams in one of the most important weeks of the year. But the Jaguars looked in Week 13 like the defense we expected them to be this year, and the Titans have been relatively kind to opposing defenses in 2018, allowing the seventh-most fantasy points to the position. Back in Week 3, the Jags allowed just nine points and less than 250 total yards to the Titans.
Pittsburgh Steelers (at Oakland Raiders)
The Pittsburgh Steelers are headed to the left coast an angry bunch after last week’s second-half collapse against the Los Angeles Chargers—it was Pittsburgh’s second straight loss and it dropped the Steelers all the way to No. 4 in the AFC bracket. Luckily for Pittsburgh and their sixth-ranked fantasy defense, the hapless Raiders are the cure for all that ails a reeling NFL team. Through 12 games the Raiders have all of two wins and only three teams have given up more fantasy points to defenses for the year than Oakland.
Houston Texans (vs. Indianapolis Colts)
As recently as one week ago, this matchup looked OK but not much more than that—the Colts were nearly as hot as the Texans. But a lot can change in a few days in the NFL—after being shut out by the Jaguars the Colts look vulnerable, while the Texans just keep winning football games. The Texans have climbed to the top of the AFC in fantasy points among defenses, and while the Colts aren’t the most favorable of matchups (22nd in fantasy points allowed to defenses) the Texans are just too hot not to keep riding them—especially at home.
Los Angeles Chargers (vs. Cincinnati Bengals)
The Chargers have been OK defensively from a fantasy perspective but not much more than that. Week 13 was a perfect example—the Bolts didn’t play especially well defensively but salvaged a decent showing complements of a Desmond King punt return. But as is the case so often with team defenses, this call is all about the matchup. The Bengals have absolutely imploded defensively and fallen apart offensively thanks to injuries. Andy Dalton‘s already out for the year, and AJ Green looks set to join him after being carted off the field in Cincy’s Week 13 loss to the Broncos.
Denver Broncos (at San Francisco 49ers)
Don’t look now, but the Denver Broncos are on quite a roll of late—they’ve won three straight to get back into the playoff hunt in the AFC. The San Francisco 49ers are, um, not—when last we saw the Niners they were getting demolished 43-16 by the Seattle Seahawks. The 49ers have lost nine of their last 10 games, including the last two in blowout fashion. The 49ers rank well inside the top 10 in fantasy points surrendered to team defenses, and there’s little reason to believe these teams won’t keep trending in opposite directions in Week 13.
Dallas Cowboys (vs. Philadelphia Eagles)
About the only explanation that needs to be offered for why the Cowboys are on this list is game film of the team’s Week 12 win over a Saints team that had won 10 games in a row. The Cowboys are playing as well as any team in the NFL defensively right now, holding Drew Brees and the Saints under 200 total yards in the game. That hasn’t translated to a ton of fantasy success—the Cowboys rank outside the top-12 in more scoring systems than not. But Dallas has hit double-digits two weeks running and draws a decent home matchup with an Eagles team that has been up-and-down offensively.
STREAMERS OF THE WORLD, UNITE!
Buffalo Bills (vs. New York Jets)
The Bills aren’t a good team—that much is evident after watching the team both out-play the Miami Dolphins and somehow find a way to lose to them. Still, in the loss the Bills still managed a strong defensive effort—including just 175 yards of offense allowed. Only the Baltimore Ravens are giving up fewer yards per game than the Bills, who are surrendering just 294.2 yards per game. That defense will play host Sunday to a Jets team that ranks 30th in total offense this season and has allowed the third-most fantasy points per game to team defenses.
Tennessee Titans (vs. Jacksonville Jaguars)
The Tennessee Titans have been a much better NFL defense than fantasy option in 2018—despite ranking ninth in total defense and seventh in scoring defense, the Titans rank outside the top 20 in most fantasy scoring systems. However, Week 14 sets up well for NFL good and fantasy good to intersect in Nashville. The Jaguars may have gotten a win in Week 13, but the Cody Kessler-led offense didn’t exactly light up the scoreboard, managing just six points against the Colts. For the season, the Jaguars rank sixth in fantasy points allowed to team defenses.
New England Patriots (at Miami)
That the Dolphins are a .500 football team is a testament to—something. What the Dolphins aren’t is good offensively—they posted well under 200 yards of total offense last week against the Buffalo Bills and rank 29th in the NFL in total offense through 13 weeks. The Dolphins are also fifth in fantasy points given up to team defenses this year—a number that bodes quite well for the Patriots in Week 14. The last time these teams met, the Patriots allowed fewer than 200 yards and posted a top-five fantasy outing in a 38-7 waxing of Miami in Week 4.
New York Jets (at Buffalo Bills)
The Jets Defense rode a bevy of big plays to a hot start to the fantasy season, trailing only the Chicago Bears after the first four games of the year. However, since then the team’s production has fallen off—and then some. The Jets managed a rebound of sorts with a pick-six against the Titans, but since Week 6 the Jets rank outside the top 25 in fantasy points per game. Still, this week those Jets do get a Bills team that leads the NFL in fantasy points allowed to defenses. The Bills also lead the AFC with 25 giveaways and have surrendered 36 sacks. Something’s gotta give—but be warned. In Week 10 the Bills waxed the Jets 41-10 in New York.
Detroit Lions (at Arizona Cardinals)
The Detroit Lions have given fantasy owners precious few reasons to roll them out this season—the Lions rank well outside the top 20 in fantasy points and have managed just five double-digit fantasy outings in 12 games. But this recommendation has a lot less to do with the Lions than it does the Arizona Cardinals. Yes, the Cardinals just stunned the Packers in Green Bay. But that game marked just the second time this season that a Cardinals team that ranks first in the NFC in fantasy points given up to defenses has breached 300 yards of total offense in a game and the Redbirds have turned the ball over 22 times.
CAVEAT EMPTOR, FOLKS
Chicago Bears (vs. Los Angeles Rams)
For most of the 2018 season, the Bears have been the No. 1 defense in fantasy football—and it hasn’t been close. But fresh off last week’s letdown against the Giants, the Bears now have to play host to the offensive buzzsaw that is Jared Goff, Todd Gurley, Brandin Cooks, Robert Woods and the Los Angeles Rams. Sure, it’s possible that the Bears could rack up enough big plays in this game to salvage a decent fantasy score, but betting your playoff hopes on it in a must-win week is an awfully risky play. Sometimes the scheduling gods can be cruel.
Baltimore Ravens (at Kansas City Chiefs)
Like the Chicago Bears, the Baltimore Ravens have spent most of the season as one of the best defenses in both the NFL and fantasy football—the team ranks first in the NFL in total defense and fourth in fantasy points at this point in the season. But like the Bears, the Ravens also drew the short end of the scheduling stick in Week 14—a trip to Kansas City to face the high-flying Chiefs. Kareem Hunt may no longer be on the team, but as the Chiefs showed in dropping 40 on the Raiders in Week 13, they remain nigh impossible to stop.
Minnesota Vikings (at Seattle Seahawks)
The Vikings are a good NFL defense and a fine fantasy asset in 2018—the team checks in at sixth in the NFL in total defense and fifth in fantasy points after 12 games this season. Minnesota’s ability to stop the run matches up well with the run-heavy Seahawks, too. But the Seahawks are red-hot right now, playing at home in front of a raucous home crowd and have made a habit of late of controlling the tempo and flow of games. Seattle ranks outside the top 20 in fantasy points given to defenses this season as a result.
