In many respects, Week 16 was one the Philadelphia Eagles would rather forget—especially on defense.
Last week, Philadelphia’s second-ranked defense had easily its worst game of the season against the rival Cowboys. The 40 points that the Eagles surrendered in a six-point loss were the most the team has allowed in a game this year. The team allowed 419 yards of offense and let the Cowboys convert over half their third-down attempts. It was an admittedly shaky outing from a team that was trying to lock up the top seed in the NFC.
But from a fantasy perspective, the Eagles were just fine. Dandy, even.
Against the Cowboys, an Eagles pass rush that leads the league by a wide margin with six sacks got to Dak Prescott six times. They were led by edge-rusher Josh Sweat, who had himself a day—in addition to three tackles, 1.5 sacks and a couple QB hits, Sweat snatched a Dak Prescott pass from the air and returned it 42 yards for a touchdown. All those big plays made up for the yards and points that Philly allowed, and the Eagles finished the week among the top-10 fantasy defenses.
Now, in this all-important final week of the season in most fantasy leagues, the Eagles face a Saints team that has struggled offensively much of the season. New Orleans is 23rd in the league in scoring at just over 20 points per game, fourth in the league in giveaways with 23 and seventh in fantasy points allowed to defenses.
Fantasy’s fourth-ranked defense should be a rock-solid start in Week 17.
THE NO-DOUBTERS
Dallas Cowboys (at Tennessee Titans)
Much like the Eagles, the Dallas defense has been among the top scorers in fantasy most of the season. And much like the Eagles, the Cowboys would likely just as soon forget last week’s performance—although four takeaways kept the team inside the top-15 for the week. But Dallas is still second in the league in sacks and first in takeaways ahead of a matchup with a Titans offense that imploded last week with rookie Malik Willis under center. If Dallas isn’t a top-five fantasy producer in Week 17, it will be quite possibly the biggest upset of the year at the position.
San Francisco 49ers (at Las Vegas Raiders)
The 49ers haven’t missed a beat since rookie Brock Purdy took over at quarterback, largely because the defense is among the best in the NFL. For the season, San Francisco is the only team in the league allowing under 300 yards of offense per game. And the only team allowing under 17 points per contest. The Niners are seventh in the league with 41 sacks, fifth in the league in takeaways with 24 and second in fantasy points among defenses. Last week in Pittsburgh, the Raiders barely cracked 200 yards of offense—and it’s not the first time this season that the Vegas offense has slipped into a coma.
New England Patriots (vs. Miami Dolphins)
Something of an argument can be made for including the Patriots in the “Caveat Emptor” section of Getting Defensive given that the Dolphins rank toward the bottom of the league in fantasy points given up to defenses. But Tua Tagovailoa is in concussion protocol, and even if he clears it he’s coming off a three-pick mess of a performance and the Dolphins are mired in a month-long skid. The Patriots are fantasy’s highest-scoring defense after logging their NFL-leading sixth defensive touchdown last week, and the Pats also pace the AFC in sacks and takeaways.
Baltimore Ravens (vs. Pittsburgh Steelers)
The Ravens keep winning games, but it isn’t because of an offense that has topped 17 points in a game all of once since Week 10. But while Baltimore’s offense has scuffled, the team’s 10th-ranked defense has consistently played at high level. Since Week 11, the Ravens have been a respectable seventh at the position in fantasy points, including allowing just nine points last week against Atlanta. In Week 17 the Ravens host a Steelers offense that ranks 23rd in yards and 29th in scoring, and Pittsburgh has allowed the 10th-most fantasy points to defenses in 2022.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. Carolina Panthers)
The 2022 season hasn’t exactly gone according to plan for the Buccaneers, but Tampa remains in first place largely because of the play of the team’s sixth-ranked defense. The Buccaneers are eighth in points allowed and quietly eighth in the league in sacks, but a lack of takeaways (just 16 for the season) has hindered Tampa’s fantasy production. The Panthers have shown some signs of life recently (including a blowout win over the Lions in Week 16), but Carolina still ranks in the top half of the league in fantasy points surrendered to defenses.
STREAMERS OF THE WORLD, UNITE!
New York Giants (vs. Indianapolis Colts)
The Giants are a team that’s better than the numbers indicate—New York is 8-6-1 despite a defense that ranks 27th in yards allowed and 20th in points allowed. The Giants have been especially fantasy-relevant this season either, but that may not matter in Week 17. This week the Giants face a Colts team that redefined offensive ineptitude in Monday’s loss to the Chargers, failing to hit 175 yards of offense while scoring all of three points. The Colts are second in the NFL in sacks allowed, first in giveaways and most importantly first in fantasy points surrendered to defenses.
Jacksonville Jaguars (at Houston Texans)
The Jaguars have been on something of a roll of late, winning four of five to climb into first place in the AFC South. And over the past three weeks, the defense has been making plays—the Jags are quietly third in fantasy points among defenses since Week 14. The Texans have shown some fight of late, but we’re still talking about a team that ranks dead last in the league in yards per game, 30th in the NFL in points per game and second in fantasy points allowed to defenses. As streaming options go in Week 17, fantasy managers could do a lot worse.
Kansas City Chiefs (vs. Denver Broncos)
We have actually seen this movie before—and it was a blockbuster. Back in the long-ago days of Week 14, the Chiefs and Broncos met in Denver. The Broncos put up 28 points in that game, but Kansas City sacked Russell Wilson six times in that game and returned one of their two interceptions on the day for a touchdown on the way to finishing the week second in fantasy points among defenses. The Broncos abysmal performance last week against the Rams got head coach Nathaniel Hackett fired, and new interim coach Jerry “Who?” Rosburg isn’t going to magically make this team not a disaster.
Los Angeles Chargers (vs. Los Angeles Rams)
Yes, it can be argued that the Chargers’ defensive showing (seven sacks, three interceptions) last Monday night had as much to do with how awful the Colts are as how good the Bolts defense is. Yes, the Rams just dropped a fitty-burger on a Denver defense that has ranked near the top of the NFL most of the season. But the Rams are still 31st in total offense, 26th in scoring offense, third in sacks allowed, seventh in giveaways and first in the NFC in fantasy points allowed to defenses. Besides, what are the odds that Baker Mayfield plays two good games in a row?
Cleveland Browns (at Washington Commanders)
The Browns admittedly aren’t an easy defense for fantasy managers to trust, even in a plus matchup with a Commanders team surrendering the fifth-most fantasy points to defenses this season—the Browns are just 25th in fantasy points at the position, and that’s if you include the team’s Week 13 win in Houston in which Cleveland scored on a punt return, fumble return and interception return. But the Commanders are coming off a loss to San Francisco in which Taylor Heinicke was benched for Carson Wentz. If Wentz starts in Week 17, an already favorable matchup becomes that much better.
Arizona Cardinals (at Atlanta Falcons)
By just about any estimation, the 2022 season has been a disaster for the Arizona Cardinals. The defense bears at least some of the blame for this year’s collapse—Arizona is 22nd in yards allowed and 30th in points allowed. However, the Cardinals are 12th in fantasy points among defenses thanks to an NFC-high five defensive touchdowns. Counting on a defensive score is a good way to wind up a disappointed fantasy manager, but with rookie Desmond Ridder under center the Falcons have struggled mightily to generate offense.
CAVEAT EMPTOR, FOLKS
Buffalo Bills (at Cincinnati Bengals)
The Bills have been a bit up-and-down defensively this season, in no small part because of injuries on that side of the ball. But the Bills are still seventh in total defense, fourth against the run, second in points allowed and fifth in fantasy points. However, this week’s marquee matchup with the surging Bengals in Cincinnati has the potential to be something of a “feast or famine” game for Buffalo’s defense—there’s always the chance for a big play, but there’s also a good chance this contest winds up a high-scoring, back-and-forth affair.
