Now that we’re a couple of weeks into the 2018 NFL season, a few trends are starting to reveal themselves where team defenses are concerned in fantasy football.
At the very top of that list is discoveries is this—whichever team is playing the Arizona Cardinals in a given week is an attractive fantasy target—and then some.
After getting waxed 34-0 by the Los Angeles Rams, the 0-2 Redbirds have now scored all of six points in two games. The Cardinals have tallied 350 yards of offense for the season. Nineteen NFL teams are averaging more total yards a game than the Cardinals have amassed in two.
Things aren’t going to get any easier for the Cardinals in Week 3, either. This Sunday Arizona plays host to Khalil Mack and the Chicago Bears defense. The same Chicago Bears defense that spent the first two weeks of this season knocking around two of the biggest names in the NFL in Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson.
It’s very possible we’ll see a quarterback change in the desert this week, as Arizona head coach Steve Wilks said after Sunday’s embarrassment that he wouldn’t rule out benching veteran Sam Bradford in favor of rookie Josh Rosen.
But a new quarterback isn’t going to fix all that ails the Cardinals, and from a fantasy matchup perspective Rosen’s installation wouldn’t necessarily be a bad thing. Rookie signal-callers, as a rule, tend to hold the ball longer. And while the Cardinals have been an offensive nightmare, Bradford’s been sacked just three times in two games.
If you aren’t fortunate enough to own the Bears defense in your league and they aren’t available, here’s a look at some other team defenses to target (and potentially avoid) in Week 3.
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THE NO-DOUBTERS
Minnesota Vikings (vs. BUF)
In Week 1, the Vikings were the highest-scoring fantasy defense in the NFC in many scoring systems. But as I cautioned in this column a week ago, last week’s visit to Titletown didn’t produce a favorable stat line. It’s almost like Aaron Rodgers is good at this whole playing quarterback thing. However, this week the matchup needle swings all the way back the other direction. The Buffalo Bills may be the only team in the NFL capable of challenging the Cardinals for the title of the league’s worst team—a club so bad that veteran players are literally quitting football at halftime of Bills games. The two teams who have played the Bills so far this year (the Baltimore Ravens and Los Angeles Chargers) each finished among the top-five fantasy defenses that week. The Vikings will too.
Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. TEN)
The Jaguars sent a loud message to the AFC and even the rest of the NFL with last Sunday’s resounding win over the New England Patriots. But that win didn’t really translate to fantasy football—Jacksonville finished Week 2 well outside the top-10 in most formats after a big Week 1 against the Giants. Sunday will bring a return to glory though. The Titans had just 283 yards of total offense in last week’s win over the Texans with Blaine Gabbert under center, and it’s not like they lit up the scoreboard the week before with Marcus Mariota. Things could get out of hand in this game early, which will allow the Jacksonville pass rush to pin its ears back and just cut loose.
Houston Texans (vs. NYG)
Well, so much Houston’s status as dark-horse playoff contenders—Sunday’s loss in Nashville dropped the Texans to 0-2 and exposed a team with some very real issues on both sides of the ball. But if ever there was a matchup to get “right” in, this week’s home tilt with the Giants is it. New York has been the East Coast version of Arizona offensively this year, ranking 29th in total offense and scoring just two touchdowns over their first two games—both when the game was all but decided. Eli Manning was blasted by the Dallas Cowboys in Week 2 to the tune of six sacks, so Houston’s stacked pass rush should (in theory) feast here.
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Cleveland Browns (vs. NYJ)
It got lost somewhat in the nightmarish haze of missed kicks in New Orleans Sunday, but the Browns defense put together one heck of an effort against the Saints. The Browns allowed just 275 total yards to the Saints, sacked Drew Brees three times and notched a pair of takeaways on the way to a second consecutive top-10 fantasy finish to open the season. This week the Browns won’t be facing a future Hall of Famer on his home turf—they will be welcoming a rookie quarterback with a propensity for turning the ball over who is coming off a rough outing in a Week 2 loss to Miami. The Browns are still a punchline—but that defense is legit, including a league-leading eight takeaways.
Miami Dolphins (vs. OAK)
There’s no bigger surprise in the NFL at this point in the season than the 2-0 Dolphins. What’s equally surprising is that Miami’s defense ranks inside the top-five in fantasy points—largely because of an early penchant for making big plays. There’s reason to believe that hot start will keep going in both the NFL and fantasy football at home Sunday against the Raiders. Despite being 10th in the NFL the Raiders are 26th in scoring, at just 16 points per game. The Dolphins are tied with the NFL Lead with five interceptions—an area where Derek Carr has struggled in the early-going (three in two games, including a pick-six). There’s also the always popular and fun for the whole family
Carolina Panthers (vs. CIN)
If there’s a keyword with the Week 3 streaming options, it’s “speculative.” That includes a Panthers defense that left a bad taste in a lot of mouths after giving up 31 points to the Atlanta Falcons a week ago. But Sunday the Panthers are back at home, where they put the clamps on the Dallas Cowboys to the tune of 232 total yards and eight points allowed. The Bengals are 2-0 and just dropped 34 points on the Baltimore Ravens, but when Cincinnati visits Bank of America Stadium it will be without injured tailback Joe Mixon. When Mixon was off the field a week ago Cincy’s offense stagnated, and a formidable Carolina front-seven will have success if/when the Bengals can’t run the ball.
Dallas Cowboys (at SEA)
The Dallas Cowboys have become a defensive football team. Odd though that may sound, it’s true—the Cowboys allowed less than 20 points for s second straight game against the Giants and lead the league with nine sacks on the season. This matchup would look at lot better were it being played at Jerruh World and not in the Pacific Northwest, but the Seahawks offensive line is a porous mess that allowed six sacks in each of the first two games. Russell Wilson‘s being asked to carry the team on his back behind that quintet of matadors, and he’s pressing as a result. The more he does that the greater the chances of mistakes and turnovers—there have been plenty of both already this year.
Baltimore Ravens (vs. DEN)
Two weeks ago, it looked like the Baltimore Ravens had one of the best defenses in the NFL. Last week against Cincinnati, it appeared they had one of the worst. The truth, as it often does, likely lies somewhere in-between. The Ravens inconsistency on defense so far in 2018 is a concern. So is the potential absence of inside linebacker CJ Mosley. But Baltimore’s at home this week against a Denver Broncos team that isn’t exactly setting the world on fire offensively. Denver’s 2-0 start is more in spite of quarterback Keenum than because of him—Keenum’s tossed four interceptions already this season and come close on several other occasions. If he’s sloppy again in Week 3 the Ravens will have every opportunity for a rebound game.
Seattle Seahawks (vs. DAL)
No, these aren’t the “Legion of Boom” Seahawks of old. Richard Sherman‘s gone. So is Kam Chancellor. And Michael Bennett. And Cliff Avril. Inside linebacker Bobby Wagner missed last week’s matchup in Chicago with a groin injury that leaves his Week 3 status in doubt. But this recommendation has less to do with the Seahawks as it does their opponent—a Dallas team that’s 30th in the NFL in total offense over the first two weeks of the season. Dallas’ conservative offense in 2018 has the makings of a sneaky-good fantasy matchup for defenses. Dallas is running the ball and playing defense in an effort to control tempo. They aren’t set up to light up the scoreboard. This is Seattle’s home opener, so the 12th Man will also be out in full throat
CAVEAT EMPTOR, FOLKS
Los Angeles Rams (vs. LAC)
Just about everything that’s about to be said about the Rams can also be applied to their cross-town “rivals” in La-La Land. The Rams have looked lights-out defensively over the first two weeks of the season, more than repaying the fantasy drafters who were aggressive in spending an early pick to get them. But this big Week 3 matchup has “shootout” written all over it. Both the Rams and Chargers are loaded with offensive talent. Both rank inside the top-seven in the NFL in total offense. And both teams have elite tailbacks and red-hot quarterbacks. This game is going to a blast to watch for fans of big plays and scoring, but you’re essentially gambling on a D/ST touchdown to salvage your day given the way these teams are moving up and down the field at will.
Philadelphia Eagles (vs. IND)
Right now, fantasy owners of the Eagles defense are wondering what the heck happened after Philly was torched for 400-plus passing yards and four touchdowns by Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Add in an “OK” Week 1 performance against Atlanta, and the Eagles defense currently sits outside the top-15 in more fantasy scoring systems than not. This isn’t really a recommendation to sit the Eagles in what looked a few weeks ago like a great matchup. With the Eagles at home and Carson Wentz returning, I’ll be rolling the Philly dice one more time in the leagues in which I own them. But the Eagles secondary was exposed in Week 2 on a level that makes me uneasy about facing Andrew Luck and T.Y. Hilton.
