Matchups are an important part of success with team defenses in fantasy football. Vital if you’re into streaming at the position. You try to identify teams with a favorable opening slate that can be had cheaply on draft day and hope that you can ride that wave to a hot start. It works often enough to be a viable strategy.
There’s a problem, however. The data used to determine both how a defense will fare and whether those matchups are good or bad is from the prior season. A lot can change in one offseason in the NFL. Bad offenses get better. Good defenses get worse. Things don’t go as planned.
Exhibit A for that dilemma two weeks into the 2022 season is the Cleveland Browns.
Headed into the season, the Browns appeared to have a month of gravy matchups to open the year—at Carolina, home against the Jets and Steelers, and then at Atlanta. Four full weeks of tastiness.
But instead of deliciousness, fantasy managers have been left with a bad taste in their mouths. Cleveland has at least logged five sacks, but they have also allowed 55 points and logged just two takeaways. In many fantasy scoring systems, the Browns rank outside the top 25 after two games.
So what should fantasy managers who have rostered the Browns do after their collapse against the Jets last Sunday?
Start them again, of course.
Thursday night, the Browns host a Steelers team that has struggled mightily generating offense. A Steelers offensive line that should be completely overmatched trying to block Myles Garrett. And a Steelers team that Garrett and the Browns, um, hate.
If at first you don’t succeed try, try again. The third time is the charm. Insert cliché here.
Besides, if I keep picking them, I have to be right eventually. Right?
THE NO-DOUBTERS
Buffalo Bills (at Miami Dolphins)
It might seem odd to list any team as a no-doubt start against the Dolphins after watching Miami put up almost 550 yards of offense against the Ravens in Week 2. At least it might to people who didn’t watch the Bills jackstomp the Tennessee Titans Monday night. The Bills have played the defending Super Bowl champions and the No. 1 seed in the AFC playoffs last year—and given up 17 points total. Two weeks into the season, no team in the AFC has piled up more fantasy points than the Bills. They are an absolute must-start regardless of matchup—and the scariest team in the NFL.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. Green Bay Packers)
Again, it might seem weird to advise rolling out a defense facing Aaron Rodgers and the Packers this week. But the Buccaneers aren’t 2-0 because of the exploits of Tom Brady. They are undefeated because of a defense that has given up all of 13 points in two games—best in the NFL. The Buccaneers are also fifth in yards allowed, are giving up less than 90 yards a game on the ground, are tied for second in the NFL in takeaways, and are pacing the league in sacks. Green Bay’s offense was efficient last week against the Bears, but it’s not the buzzsaw it once was. Like the Bills, Tampa’s a go regardless of who they play.
Dallas Cowboys (at New York Giants)
Most of the focus on the Dallas Cowboys this season has been on the offense in light of the Dak Prescott injury, but the Cowboys defense was the reason that Dallas got their first win of 2022 last week. Against the Bengals, Dallas logged half a dozen sacks and gave up just 254 yards of offense. The Giants are admittedly undefeated, but the G-Men aren’t as good as their record. The offensive line is average at best, the receivers aspire to be average and Daniel Jones is…Daniel Jones. The Cowboys may not recapture last year’s top fantasy defense overall status in 2022, but this week at least Micah Parsons and company are a solid play.
San Francisco 49ers (at Denver Broncos)
Might as well just keep with the continuation of a theme. On some level, it’s hard to tell just how good this iteration of the 49ers defense is. The team’s struggles in Week 1 happened in a monsoon, and last week’s dominant outing against the Seahawks came against a Geno Smith-led Seahawks offense that isn’t scaring anyone. But two weeks in, no defense in the league is slowing fewer yards per game than the 49ers, and the team sits fifth in fantasy points. Add in a Broncos offense that has been a herky-jerky mess so far this season, and San Francisco is a weekly start until we see a reason not to.
Pittsburgh Steelers (at Cleveland Browns)
In Week 1 against the Cincinnati Bengals, the Pittsburgh Steelers went nuclear defensively—seven sacks, five takeaways, a defensive touchdown and gonzo fantasy numbers. Last week against the New England Patriots, the Steelers came back to Earth—the team only allowed 17 points, but they also managed just a single takeaway and didn’t record a sack. This week’s meeting with the rival Browns should fall somewhere in-between. Pittsburgh isn’t an elite fantasy option this week (and may not be until T.J. Watt returns, but Cleveland’s offensive limitations should provide them a decent fantasy floor.
Los Angeles Chargers (vs. Jacksonville Jaguars)
Yes, the Chargers had something of a rough go of it last week, but that tends to happen against Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs. But two weeks ago the new-look Bolts defense showed what it was capable of against the Las Vegas Raiders—the Bolts sacked Derek Carr half a dozen times and picked him off three times. If last week’s drubbing of the Indianapolis Colts was any indication, the Jaguars are a better team in 2022 than they have been in a while, but we’re still talking about the team that led the NFL in fantasy points given up to defenses in 2021.
Baltimore Ravens (at New England Patriots)
The Ravens may have gotten torched for approximately all the yards ever last week against the Dolphins, but fantasy managers who rolled out the Ravens were bailed out by the 103-yard kickoff return for a touchdown peeled off by Devin Duvernay to open the game. Baltimore’s defense may not be as stout as it once was, but the Patriots aren’t exactly lighting it up offensively—two weeks into the season the Pats are averaging less than 325 yards and just 12 points per game while giving up the eighth-most fantasy points to defenses.
STREAMERS OF THE WORLD, UNITE!
Philadelphia Eagles (at Washington Commanders)
The Eagles haven’t been an easy team to get a bead on defensively through two games this year—it took a pick-six in Week 1 to salvage a decent stat line against the Lions, but Philly rebounded against the Vikings to the tune of three interceptions, two sacks and seven points allowed against the Minnesota Vikings. The Commanders haven’t been terrible offensively, but they also haven’t been a bad fantasy matchup for opposing defenses—Washington has allowed half a dozen sacks, turned it over four times and given up the 11th-most fantasy points to team defenses.
Chicago Bears (vs. Houston Texans)
The Bears have been a decidedly average fantasy defense through two weeks, ranking right in the middle of the league in points. The Bears are 22nd in the league in total defense. The Chicago offense is a hot mess as well, which puts that much more pressure on the likes of Robert Quinn and Roquan Smith to be flawless. But the Bears have tallied five sacks and snared three takeaways while playing a pair of opponents who made the playoffs last season. The Houston Texans did not make the playoffs last year, and after finishing last in the league in total offense last year the Texans are 29th in that regard two games into the 2022 season.
Kansas City Chiefs (at Indianapolis Colts)
The Chiefs defense was the heroes of last week’s big AFC West win over the Chargers, with rookie cornerback Jaylen Watson returning a Justin Herbert interception 99 yards for the go-ahead touchdown. Meanwhile, absolutely no one was the hero of the Colts’ Week 2 game—Indy was embarrassed on the road at Jacksonville. It’s not like the Colts looked much better in Week 1, either—the team needed a frenetic second-half comeback to tie the lowly Texans. Two games into the 2022season, only two teams have given up more fantasy points to opposing defenses.
Cincinnati Bengals (at New York Jets)
Given what we saw from these teams in Week 2, some might believe this recommendation needs to be flipped—the Bengals managed just one sack and one takeaway in what appeared to be a favorable fantasy matchup with the Dak Prescott-less Cowboys, while the Jets piled up 31 points in a wild comeback win over the Cleveland Browns. But in addition to being 0-2 and absolutely desperate for a victory, the Bengals also no doubt remember the Jets’ upset win in New York last year. The Bengals have to have this game—and they are going to come out and play like it.
CAVEAT EMPTOR, FOLKS
Los Angeles Rams (at Arizona Cardinals)
The Rams remain one of the NFL’s more high-profile defenses, and two weeks into the 2022 season Los Angeles is tied with the Bills for the league lead in takeaways and seventh in fantasy points. But the Rams have also been surprisingly porous, allowing 58 points in two games and letting the Falcons get back into last week’s game. Granted, the last time these teams played Aaron Donald and the Rams defense completely dominated the Cardinals, but the Redbirds will be at home and have given up the eighth-fewest fantasy points to defenses this season.
