Sometimes weird things happen in the NFL.
Heading into Week 3, the Buffalo Bills possessed one of the most anemic offenses in football. Through two games, the Bills had averaged just 218 yards of offense and 11.5 points per game. The Bills had surrendered 11 sacks and turned the ball over four times.
With a trip to Minnesota on deck, the Bills very much looked the part of a dream fantasy matchup. The Vikings defense was going to feast. Fantasy owners far and wide plugged the Vikings into starting lineups with confidence.
Yeah…about that.
The Bills stunned both the Vikings and the rest of the NFL by blasting the Vikings 27-6 in Week 3. Buffalo piled up almost 300 total yards, didn’t turn the ball over and allowed just three sacks of rookie quarterback Josh Allen.
The fantasy defense that everyone thought was a sure thing wound up being a resounding clunker—for reasons that we’re still not entirely sure of.
The point of all this is simple—even as we get deeper into the season and the data grows on fantasy matchups for team defenses, there are occasionally going to be out-of-nowhere surprises that just don’t make a ton of sense. Or any sense. At all.
All you can do in a case like this is dust off the stink of that fantasy faceplant and move on to the next week.
And that’s exactly what we’re going to do here.
As Darth Hoodie would say, “We’re on to Nashville.”
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THE NO-DOUBTERS
Philadelphia Eagles (at TEN)
The Eagles are all kinds of banged-up on offense, so it’s fallen to the defense to carry the team in the early-going. Its been up to the task, too—checking in at ninth in the league in both yards and points allowed. However, the big plays (and as such the fantasy production) haven’t really been there. That stops Sunday against the Titans. The Tennessee offense is a hot mess spearheaded by an injured quarterback that’s having all kinds of problems moving the ball consistently. This very much has the feel of a “get right” game for the Eagles—from both an NFL and fantasy perspective.
Chicago Bears (vs. TBB)
When I first penned this article Monday afternoon, the Bears were in the “Caveat Emptor” section. Not because of anything Chicago has done wrong—the Bears have been very solid defensively this season. But Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Tampa offense had already torched the Eagles this season—adding some risk to starting the Bears in Week 4. However, after watching Fitzpatrick crash back to earth against the Pittsburgh Steelers, those reservations are Gonesville. Roll the Bears out there with a Khalil Mack-sized smile on your face.
Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. NYJ)
The Jaguars were one of a number of Super Bowl contenders who laid an egg in Week 3, but blame for the 9-6 loss to the Tennessee Titans can’t be blamed on a defense that held the Titans out of the end zone and to just 233 yards of total offense. This week rookie Sam Darnold and the Jets come to town fresh off the short end of Baker Mayfield‘s NFL debut. New York is eighth in scoring but just 21st in total offense. Most importantly, they rank inside the top-10 in fantasy points allowed to team defenses thanks to Darnold’s propensity for turning it over (they lead the NFL in giveaways).
Seattle Seahawks (at ARZ)
The Chicago Bears struggled to escape Arizona with a win in Week 3, but that had very little to do with the Cardinals offense suddenly finding its stride. Through three games, the Redbirds are dead last in the NFL in total offense by a margin of over 50 total yards a game. Arizona is dead last in scoring—by a touchdown a game over the next-closest team. Yes, it appears that the Cardinals are now ready to hand the reins to rookie quarterback Josh Rosen, but given how horrific the Cardinals offense is. It’s going to take more than a change under center to fix it.
Los Angeles Chargers (vs. SFO)
No, I haven’t lost my marbles. Haven’t started day-drinking either…at least no more than usual. The Los Angeles Chargers are at or near the bottom of the NFL in several defensive categories, but that ranking comes with a humongous asterisk. The Bolts have had the distinct misfortune of having already faced both the Kansas City Chiefs and Rams—two absolute offensive buzz-saws. The San Francisco 49ers are most assuredly not. San Fran has been a top-five matchup for fantasy defenses this season with Jimmy Garoppolo—with his season over after tearing his ACL things are only going to get worse. Or better. It’s all about perspective.
STREAMERS OF THE WORLD UNITE!
Cleveland Browns (at OAK)
Don’t look now, but the Browns are legit on the defensive side of the ball. Myles Garrett is playing as well as any defender in the league not named Khalil Mack. The Browns are 13th in total defense, 11th in scoring defense and rank inside the top-five in most fantasy scoring systems thanks to nine sacks and a league-leading 11 takeaways. It’s that last category that’s of particular interest as the Browns head west to face the Raiders. Oakland’s had some trouble with giving the ball away this season, and at 0-3 the Raiders have officially hit desperation mode.
Detroit Lions (at DAL)
Believe it or not, the Lions haven’t been a terrible defense from a fantasy perspective in 2018—they rank just outside the top-12 overall and posted a top-10 Week 3 in their big win over the Patriots. However, like many of the Week 4 streamers this call isn’t about the Lions nearly as much as who they play. The Dallas offense is a dumpster fire at the moment. In the NFC, only the Arizona Cardinals are gaining fewer yards and scoring fewer points per game. The Lions are going to sell out against Ezekiel Elliott and dare Dallas to throw the ball to win—and I have vert little confidence Dak Prescott and the Cowboys can do that.
New York Jets (at JAX)
Sam Darnold has gotten all the run in New York this year, but the Jets have quietly upped their level of play on defense this season. They didn’t fare especially well against Cleveland in Week 3, but the Jets remain inside the top-five fantasy defenses in the NFL on the season. Frankly, this one depends on which Jaguars offense shows up Sunday. If it’s the offense that lit up the Patriots in Week 2, then fantasy owners are going to be in big trouble. But if I’s the unit that pitched and lurched its way around the field against the Titans last week, gambling on Gang Green could pay off quite nicely.
Dallas Cowboys (vs. DET)
Fantasy streamers who rolled out the Cowboys last week were no doubt disappointed by their turkey against the Seattle Seahawks—24 points allowed and two measly sacks against a Seahawks team that had allowed 12 in the two preceding games. But to live again, you have to learn to love again. This week the Cowboys are back at home against a Lions team that’s allowed the third-most fantasy points to defenses this year, trailing just the disasters that are the Bills (we’ll get to them in a second) and Cardinals. The Lions also lead the NFC with seven giveaways through three games this year.
Green Bay Packers (vs. BUF)
The Packers have hardly been tearing it up defensively over the first three weeks of the year—Green Bay barely ranks inside the top 20 in fantasy points. But this recommendation has less to do with Clay Matthews and his weekly ridiculous roughing the passer calls than it does the Bills. Simply put, I’m nit buying what Buffalo was selling in Week 3 in Minneapolis. That offensive performance was an anomaly, not Buffalo turning some mythical corner. With Green Bay coming off a bad loss on the road at Washington, a fired-up Packers team is going to do to Buffalo what everyone figured the Vikings would.
New Orleans Saints (at NYG)
At first glance, the Saints might seem an odd choice for a fantasy defense. The Saints are 30th in the NFL in total defense and dead last in scoring defense, surrendering a jaw-dropping 34.3 points per game. Only the Oakland Raiders have scored fewer fantasy points at the position than New Orleans. But if you’re hard up in deeper leagues for a spot-start at the position there’s reason to believe in the Saints in Week 4. The Giants rank inside the top 10 on fantasy points allowed to defenses and fifth in sacks allowed—surrendering an average of four per game.
CAVEAT EMPTOR, FOLKS
Minnesota Vikings (at LAR)
As if getting embarrassed at home by the winless Bills wasn’t bad enough, the Vikings get to follow that up by flying west on a short week to take on the NFC’s best offense. That sounds like loads of fun. The Rams are carving opposing to defenses with impunity on the ground and through the air. Jared Goff and Co. are chewing through over 439 yards of total offense per game and scoring 34 points per contest. Los Angeles has a ridiculously deep stable of receivers, the game’s best tailback and a dangerous young quarterback playing behind a stout offensive line. Calling this a bad matchup for a defense is an understatement. It’s an impossible task.
Los Angeles Rams (vs. MIN)
The Rams have been lights-out defensively over the first three weeks of the season—they are the highest-scoring fantasy defense in many scoring systems. They are also hard to sit playing at home against a Vikings team that just got spanked by the winless Bills. The Rams just posted a decent score against a potent Chargers offense thanks to the always-popular D/ST touchdown. But the Rams will also be playing on a short week against an angry Minnesota team short both cornerback Marcus Peters and batterymate Aqib Talib. That’s real cause for concern.
Baltimore Ravens (at PIT)
On one hand, the Baltimore Ravens sport the NFL’s top-ranked defense after three games, allowing just 273 yards of total offense per game. The Ravens have been a top-10 fantasy defense to this point in the year. And primetime matchups with their most hated rivals have been known to turn into real defensive slugfests. However, on the other hand the Steelers have almost as much offensive firepower as any team in the NFL even without Le’Veon Bell, and the last time these teams locked horns the game was a 39-38 shootout.
