It’s Week 16, and for many, it’s the semifinals of the fantasy football playoffs. If you have made it this far, congratulations on your victories and best of luck this week. To help determine the best starters for your roster, here are five players that should only be played at your own risk. Their matchups and past performances are trending toward poor fantasy production.
Remember, these are players to fade and not players you must sit. If you have to play any of them in your lineup, surround your lineup with high-upside and safe-floor options.
Cole Kmet - TE Chicago Bears
Even though Justin Fields does not have many options in the passing game aside from Cole Kmet, he has been hit or miss on the Bears offense. His last double-digit performance was in Week 13 against the Packers where he scored 10.2 points in half-PPR scoring. His two-touchdown game in Week 10 gave managers high hopes for his future success, but that has yet to translate to consistent points.
The Bears take on the Buffalo Bills who are coming off of a win against the Dolphins. In the last four weeks, they are ranked third-best against tight ends allowing just 15 receptions on 23 attempts for 85 yards and zero touchdowns. Instead of Kmet, look for Juwan Johnson of the Saints who has high-upside with back-to-back two-touchdowns games for the Saints.
D’Onta Foreman - RB Carolina Panthers
If managers thought there would be a split between Chuba Hubbard and D’Onta Foreman, their hopes are now officially dashed. Hubbard is quickly taking over as the RB1 in the offense and is involved in both the ground and the passing game while Foreman is seeing the little work he gets in between the 20s.
For the first time this season, we aren’t going to pick on the Detroit Lions, at least when it comes to their run defense. Their meager numbers allowed to the position may be due to their porous secondary, but they are still ranked first against running backs over the last four weeks. Bear in mind, those four matchups were against the Bills, Jaguars, Vikings and the Jets. Opposing offenses have netted just 199 rushing yards on 65 attempts for only one touchdown.
Even if the Panthers keep the ball on the ground, the bulk of the work will likely go to Hubbard.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling - WR Kansas City Chiefs
It may be tempting to chase the touchdowns, but that is not only risky on a normal occasion but especially in the Chiefs’ offense. There are far too many mouths to feed, especially if Mecole Hardman is healthy enough to return in Week 16. Even with the touchdowns, Valdes-Scantling is a risky start. He has averaged 38.2 yards per game over the last five weeks and that includes a 71-yard game that inflates the numbers. Without a score, you can expect single-digit fantasy points.
The Chiefs are taking on Seattle who can be gashed on the ground. While the Chiefs’ offense runs primarily through the air, this could turn into a Isiah Pacheco and Jerick McKinnon game with Travis Kelce and JuJu Smith-Schuster rounding out the receiving corps. The Seahawks have allowed just 37 receptions on 58 attempts for 445 yards and two touchdowns to wide receivers over the last four weeks. That can be largely due to their terrible defense against running backs.
Amari Cooper - WR Cleveland Browns
I need to take a loss on this one. With Deshaun Watson‘s return, it seemed deep-threat Donovan Peoples-Jones would be the one to lose out. Instead, he emerged as the fantasy producer while Amari Cooper has become a warm body on the field. Over the last three weeks, Cooper has posted 6, 5.2, and 7.8 points respectively. Meanwhile, Peoples-Jones scored 5.9, 15.4, and 11.1 in half-PPR scoring. Not only does Watson look rusty, it looks like it’s two years’ worth of rust.
The Browns will take on the Saints in Week 16 who are in the top-10 against wide receivers. They have allowed 39 completions on 64 attempts for 407 yards and just a single touchdown to the position over the last four weeks. Even though Cooper is seeing a share of the targets, his fantasy production is not seeing the conversion into points.
Brock Purdy - QB San Francisco 49ers
Just a reminder, this piece is not list of must-sit players, but one that managers should be careful starting. Brock Purdy is a perfect example of this. The Washington Commanders have been quietly stout against quarterbacks over the four weeks. They have allowed the fifth-fewest completions (61), third-fewest yards (534), and the second-fewest passing touchdowns to QBs (2).
While the Commanders have put a stopper on quarterbacks, the defense can be exploited on the ground. That, coupled with Christian McCaffrey, suggests that the 49ers may rely more heavily on the ground game instead of using Purdy’s arm to score points.
With that being said, Purdy has shown that he can use his legs to score. If he can stick to intermediate passing to Brandon Aiyuk and McCaffrey, and score inside the five-yard line, he could have a decent showing.
Merry Christmas and good luck in Week 16!
