Jeremy Wardwell and Jeff Baldwin kick off another full season of The Gambling Solution as they’ll be picking against the spread each week. They can use a maximum of 50 units and a minimum of 15 units on each game. They’ll be picking a minimum of three games each week and a maximum of five. They’ll also both be picking one over/under that will be worth 20 units. They’ll both have 100 units available each week for their matchup picks to go along with the 20 units they’ll use on their over/under selection. Their performances each week will add or subtract to their 1,000 unit starting point. Now, on to the picks for Week 1.
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Jeff BaldwinRecord: 0-0Units: 1,000 | Jeremy WardwellRecord: 0-0Units: 1,000 |
| Browns at Jets (-3) - 50 units The Jets kickoff the 2015 NFL season hosting the Browns as they’ll look to start the season on a winning note. The Jets’ game plan will be centered on running the football with RB Chris Ivory. He faces a very poor rush defense in the Browns as they finished last in the NFL a season ago giving up 141.6 yards/game on the ground. When not handing the ball off to Ivory, QB Ryan Fitzpatrick will look to both WR Eric Decker and WR http://www.nbcsports.com/edge/player/NFL/3653/Brandon-MarshallBrandon Marshall to make plays. The success of the running game should free up some big plays in the passing game. As for the Jets on the defensive side of the ball, this is a solid group who only got better in the offseason with the addition of CB Darrelle Revis and CB Antonio Cromartie. The defensive line along with the secondary also improved when they drafted DT Leonard Williams. Williams looks like a go for Sunday as he has been resting his knee after injuring it in the preseason. They’ll face a Browns’ offense led by QB Josh McCown that will once again struggle to score points. The Browns simply don’t have the offensive weapons needed to be competitive in this league. Look for the Jets’ running game to be too much as they’ll pull away in the second half and get the victory. Pick: New York Jets -3 | Packers (-7) at Bears - 35 units |
| Packers (-7) at Bears - 35 units The Packers suffered through a tough preseason after losing WR Jordy Nelson for the season with a torn ACL. QB Aaron Rodgers will look to get this season started in the win column as they head to Chicago to face their NFC North rival. The Packers face a Bears’ defense that simply isn’t very good. Rodgers will shred this secondary as he’ll look to both WR Randall Cobb and WR Davante Adams to make plays down the field. When the Packers aren’t airing it out, they’ll give the ball to RB Eddie Lacy who should have plenty of room to run. Tough not to see the Packers putting up over thirty points in this matchup. As for the Bears, WR Alshon Jeffery injured his calf early on in the preseason, but it appears he’ll suit up on Sunday. If he doesn’t play, I like this Packers selection even more. You have to wonder if he does play how effective he will be and how his timing will be affected from a route perspective with QB Jay Cutler. I think this will be the start of another long year for the Bears. They simply don’t have the defensive personnel to slow down this explosive Packers’ offense. The Packers have covered three out of the last four against the Bears. Look for that trend to continue. Pick: Green Bay Packers -7 | Dolphins (-4) at Redskins - 35 unitsThe Miami Dolphins travel to Washington to open their season against the Redskins at FedEx Field. Miami will be bringing a ferocious defensive front seven that was bolstered by the addition of Ndamukong Suh in the offseason. Suh will join forces with Cameron Wake and Olivier Vernon to pressure opposing QB’s. This week’s target will be Kirk Cousins who will replace Robert Griffin III after Griffin suffered a concussion in the preseason and his return is unknown. For his career, Cousins has started nine games and is 2-7 while the Redskins have been outscored by a total of 70 points in those losses. Miami‘s pressure will create problems for Cousins who will look for DeSean Jackson as his primary target. Of Jackson’s six 100+ yard receiving games in 2014, three came with Cousins as the starter. Cousins will also need RB Alfred Morris to be effective if they are going to have any chance of containing the Dolphins’ pass rush. The Redskins gave up the second-most sacks in the NFL last season with 58 and opening against the Dolphins will test the offensive line right away. Miami comes into this one full of optimism after a productive offseason and with QB Ryan Tannehill getting more comfortable in OC Bill Lazor’s system. Tannehill will hand off to RB Lamar Miller who rushed for over 1,000 yards for the first time in his career. In addition to Miller, Miami has a deep group of receivers led by Jarvis Landry along with Kenny Stills, Greg Jennings, and rookie DeVante Parker who is expected to be ready for week one after missing most of the preseason following foot surgery. Miami’s defense and improved air attack will win out against the Redskins who lack offensive firepower and a consistent defense. |
Chiefs at Texans (-1) - 15 units | Saints (+3) at Cardinals - 30 units |
| Giants at Cowboys (Total: 51.5 points) - 20 units The Giants head to Dallas in an NFC East clash on Sunday Night football. This game features two of the best wide receivers in the game in WR Dez Bryant and WR Odell Beckham. I think the Cowboys’ offense will have their way against this Giants’ defense. The Cowboys will shift back to more of a passing team after the loss of RB Demarco Murray. QB Tony Romo will be able to make some big plays though air with Bryant and WR Terrance Williams. Look for the Giants to be playing from behind most of the game as QB Eli Manning will be forced to throw a ton in this matchup. WR Victor Cruz will most likely not suit up as he’s experiencing discomfort in his calf which could be a result of his knee surgery. WR Rueben Randle and WR Preston Parker will fill in for the injured Cruz if he sits. Manning will lean heavily on WR Odell Beckham as they’ll need a big effort from both of them if they want to keep this game close. The last four times these two teams have met the game has gone over the posted total. Expect more of the same on Sunday night. Pick: Over 51.5 | Colts at Bills (Total: 46 points) - 20 units The Indianapolis Colts travel to Orchard Park, NY to take on the Buffalo Bills in an AFC matchup. The Colts are coming off an 11-5 campaign in which they lost in the AFC Championship game to the eventual Super Bowl Champion Patriots. During the regular season, the Colts averaged 29 PPG and Andrew Luck threw for 40 TDs. All of that success came with almost no running game to speak of and a thin receiving corps led by TY Hilton. Since then, Indianapolis has added RB Frank Gore and WR Andre Johnson to provide Luck more weapons then he has had at any other time in his career. As good as the Colts’ offense looks to be, the Bills’ defense looks to be equally as solid. Despite missing DT Marcell Dareus who will be out with a suspension, the defense, led by Mario and Kevin Williams, should be able to get pressure on Luck after totaling 54 sacks last year. The Bills averaged 21 PPG last year and with newly anointed starter Tyrod Taylor at QB and RB LeSean McCoy likely to play at less than 100% I don’t see them hitting that number here. Despite the additions the Colts offense has made, I see them having difficulty moving the ball against this stout Bills defense. The forecast is calling for light rain and temps in the 60’s so weather won’t be a major factor. Given the strength of the Bills’ defense and the improvements the Colts have made on defense facing an inexperienced QB, this game won’t go over the posted total of 46. The Colts win this one 24-13. Pick: Under 46 |
Editor’s note: Both Jeremy and Jeff started with 1,000 units as they go head to head all season long.You can follow Jeff on Twitter @JeffBaldwin4 and Jeremy @jdwardwell5.
