The Hot Sheet looks at which top prospects are excelling and which ones are struggling on a week-to-week basis. The consensus top-flight players may not always appear on this list because we are trying to help you find the next group of breakout players before your league mates do.
Hot List:
1) Tre Mason, RB STL
After failing to even get on the field for the first several games of the season, rookie running back Tre Mason got a few touches late in the Rams’ Week Six game against the 49ers. Even after an impressive 40 rushing yards on just five carries, no one could’ve predicted what we saw in Week Seven. Mason started the game and touched the ball 18 times, racking up 85 yards and his first career touchdown.
The good news is Mason looks to be the starter going forward, with Benny Cunningham holding down the passing down role. The bad news is the Rams have some tough matchups over the next few weeks, which could make for tough sledding for Mason as he continues to work himself into the offense. After this weekend’s game against Kansas City, Mason will face three consecutive top five fantasy run defenses in San Francisco, Arizona and Denver. Watch this situation closely as this could present a buy low opportunity for Mason in dynasty leagues.
2) Denard Robinson, RB JAX
The Jaguars opened their season with free agent signee Toby Gerhart as their starting running back, but not only did he struggle, he also got hurt. They then turned to late round rookie Storm Johnson, who also flopped. Finally, in Week Seven, the team gave Denard Robinson the start and expectations were low. After all, Robinson had just 160 rushing yards in the past two seasons and Robinson had never seemed comfortable in his transition from college quarterback to NFL running back. That changed last Sunday as Robinson carried the ball 22 times, which is more than his entire rookie season’s total, for 127 yards. He also scored his first career touchdown. Robinson was quickly named the starter for Week Eight and the team would be silly to hand the job back to Gerhart or Johnson at this point. While I still have some doubts about Robinson’s future as a running back, he has instant dynasty value due to his youth and the struggles of other backs across the league.
3) Sammy Watkins, WR BUF
Since Kyle Orton took over as the Bills’ starting quarterback, rookie receiver Sammy Watkins has seen an increase in receptions and receiving yards. In Week Seven, he had his true breakout game with career highs in receptions (9), yards (122) and touchdowns (2). As Buffalo’s clear number one option, expect Watkins’ role to continue to grow, along with his dynasty value. Watkins is already being valued in the second tier of wide receivers in dynasty leagues and with games like last Sunday he’s virtually unattainable.
4) Martavis Bryant, WR PIT
Watkins’ college teammate, Martavis Bryant also had a nice game in Week Seven. Making his NFL debut after battling a shoulder injury over the first several weeks, Bryant played behind second year receiver Markus Wheaton, but easily outproduced his teammate on the way to his first career touchdown. Bryant caught just two passes, but his first went for a 35 yard score. The Steelers have lacked consistency at the receiver position behind star Antonio Brown. After getting off to a good start, Wheaton has failed to produce and tight end Heath Miller has also been surprisingly average. While Bryant can’t yet be relied upon as a weekly fantasy starter, his value is on the rise.
5) Mike Wallace, WR MIA
Dolphins’ receiver Mike Wallace is quietly having an excellent season. While Wallace is sometimes knocked for his failure to reach the 100-yard plateau on a regular basis, he has been a high volume touchdown scorer this season, as well as late last year. In six games this season, Wallace has a high mark of 81 receiving yards, but has scored in five of the contests. Wallace also ended the 2013 season scoring in four of the final six games and is clearly the favorite target of Ryan Tannehill. Already 28, Wallace no longer has the elite speed that once made him an elite dynasty asset, but with a presumed floor of five receptions per game, Wallace has maintained his value and is a solid weekly starter.
Also considered: Russell Wilson, Ryan Tannehill, Jerick McKinnon, Zach Mettenberger, DeMarco Murray, Andrew Luck, Golden Tate, Demaryius Thomas, Greg Olsen, Gavin Escobar, Ronnie Hillman, Allen Robinson, Odell Beckham, Jr., Chris Hogan, TY Hilton, Anthony Dixon
Cold List:
1) Zac Stacy, RB STL
After holding off Benny Cunningham for the starting job at the beginning of the season, it looked as if the coast was clear for second year back Zac Stacy to have another year with 1,000 total yards as the lead back for the Rams, but that came to a screeching halt in Week Seven. In a surprise move, the start went to rookie Tre Mason and even more surprisingly, Stacy didn’t earn a single touch in the team’s upset win over the Seahawks. The future is bleak for Stacy, who many have failed to credit for his breakout rookie year. With a young talented back like Mason, Stacy is unlikely to regain a significant role. For those of you who own Stacy in a dynasty league, your best bet is to hold and hope he somehow regains some value.
2) Fred Jackson & CJ Spiller, RBs BUF
One of the strengths of the Buffalo Bills this season has been their running game, led by the ageless Fred Jackson, who entered last week’s matchup with the Vikings on pace for over 1,200 total yards this season. That mark will be a long shot now, as Jackson went down early in the game with a groin injury that will cost him a couple of weeks, at least. While this is not a long term blow to Jackson’s value, players at his age only really have dynasty value thanks to what they are producing in the here and now and if that’s gone, it greatly affects said dynasty value.
Luckily, the Bills have another very good back, CJ Spiller, who many onlookers think deserves more touches anyway. Here was his chance. Spiller entered the game and promptly broke off a long 53 yard run on his first carry of the game. Unfortunately, Spiller landed awkwardly on his shoulder, injuring his collarbone and ending his season. Spiller, a free agent at the end of the season, has likely played his last down with the Bills. Spiller has been fairly durable over his five years in the league, missing a total of just three games entering this season. Any season ending injury to a running back will play a big part in determining their current value, especially when that player has also failed to live up to expectations. For now, the duo of Anthony Dixon and Bryce Brown will take over for the Bills and we’re left to speculate on where Spiller will play next season.
3) Bishop Sankey, RB TEN
Bishop Sankey, the second round pick of the Tennessee Titans, entered the season with huge expectations placed on him. With only Shonn Greene standing in the way, it was presumed Sankey would claim the starting running back job from day one and post reliable starting fantasy numbers. Instead, Sankey has failed to surpass Greene and even in recent games, which Greene has missed, Sankey has not looked great. With a total of 267 rushing yards, he’s on a pace for just over 600 rushing yards, which would make him one of the biggest busts of the recent first round dynasty rookie picks. Part of Sankey’s struggles can be blamed on the inept offense of the Titans, who will start their third quarterback of the season this weekend. For Sankey dynasty owners, I wouldn’t advise selling low, but you will likely have to wait until the 2015 season before Sankey recoups any of his dynasty value that made him one of the top picks in rookie drafts last spring.
4) Brian Quick, WR STL
The story of Brian Quick has been an interesting one this season. The former second round pick, who had already been labeled as a bust after two quiet years, broke out in the first month of the season and was on pace for nearly 1,300 receiving yards after four games. In the past two weeks though, Quick has seen just six targets total, catching half of them for 43 yards. I see a few reasons for this. First, it’s fair to consider that teams have changed the way they defend Quick, especially when those defenses over the past two games are division rivals San Francisco and Seattle. Quarterback Austin Davis has focused on the short game over the two games, targeting tight end Jared Cook and running back Benny Cunningham a total of 21 times. Finally, Tavon Austin returned to the lineup. While Austin and Quick are very different types of receivers, the former top ten pick does get more looks than his replacements, taking some opportunities away from Quick. Expect Quick to bounce back as he won’t face two of the toughest defenses every week, but don’t be surprised if he continues to display the inconsistency we’ve seen this year.
5) Hakeem Nicks, WR IND
This may be hard for you to remember, but not so long ago, Hakeem Nicks was considered one of the elite fantasy wide receivers in the game, carrying similar prospective value to players like Michael Floyd and Sammy Watkins. What happened was a string of injuries and attitude issues that gave Nicks a ticket out of New York and limited his offers to a one-year deal from the Colts. This was a chance, playing alongside young star quarterback Andrew Luck, to rehabilitate both his NFL value and his fantasy value. For the second consecutive season, Nicks was in that ever so important “prove it” year. This final year of a player’s contract is when we often see players performing their best in an effort to earn a brand new contract. The opposite can be said for Nicks though, who has just 141 yards through seven games and didn’t catch a single pass in Week Seven, despite an injury to starter Reggie Wayne that opened up additional playing time. Nicks’ future could be known this weekend. With Wayne expected to be out, will Nicks step up, or will rookie Donte Moncrief bypass him? Nicks has fallen off enough that I’m starting to see him dropped in some dynasty leagues and that’s really no surprise. Nicks’ value is all but gone and it may never return.
Also considered: Matt Asiata, Jake Locker, Storm Johnson, Toby Gerhart, Blake Bortles, Teddy Bridgewater, Matthew Stafford, Frank Gore, Alfred Morris, Allen Hurns, Markus Wheaton, Cordarrelle Patterson, Tavon Austin, Kennan Allen, Delanie Walker, Eric Ebron, Eddie Lacy
