Graff: Pats’ backfield ‘will be a 50-50 split’

It’s a concerning development since pass protection cost Henderson major snaps and reps during his disappointing 2025 rookie campaign. Graff said Henderson during training camp has “looked a bit like last season: big, explosive plays, but just enough mistakes in pass protection that it feels like a risk to use him on third downs.” Without serious improvement in his blocking, Henderson’s role likely won’t change all that much in 2026. Meanwhile, Rhamondre Stevenson, per Graff, “has done enough to keep the Patriots’ backfield workload at 50-50.” New England’s backfield is once again shaping up to be frustrating for fantasy purposes in 2026.

The presence of A.J. Brown in the New England offense, Graf said, could stop teams from crowding the line of scrimmage this season. The Patriots in 2025 faced the league’s second highest rate of stacked boxes (eight or more defenders) at 52 percent, as opposing defenses were not afraid of the team’s pass-catching options. This in turn created less-than-optimal conditions for TreVeon Henderson and Rhamondre Stevenson. New England last year ranked 18th in yards before contact per attempt, a rate that could (should) rise if defenses give more respect to the passing attack. Graf said Henderson could continue missing out on valuable snaps if he hasn’t improved his pass protection this offseason.

Reiss bases his conclusion on Jennings’ work with the first-unit punt protection team. Jennings, 25, rushed 23 times for 73 yards and one touchdown, and turned his lone target into a nine-yard gain last year. Jennings is a name to know for waiver wire purposes, in case RBs Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson miss time. Aside from that, Jennings will not be scoring fantasy points on the punt squad.

Smart. Henderson was viewed as a potential passing game contributor as a rookie last year, but veteran RB Rhamondre Stevenson continued to lead the way on passing downs throughout the year. Over the course of the playoffs, Stevenson out-snapped Henderson 54-to-6 on third down and 20-to-17 in the two-minute drill. If Henderson has meaningfully improved pass protection and receiving, he could challenge Stevenson for that role in training camp. Henderson adds that after being tested “physically and mentally” by playing through consecutive extended seasons, at Ohio State and with the Patriots, he has been “refreshed as a full participant in the team’s voluntary offseason program.”

Henderson needed to be a Super Bowl X-factor, but it turned out no Pat was capable of changing the game vs. the Seahawks’ defensive onslaught. The No. 38 overall pick of the draft, Henderson struggled to overtake Rhamondre Stevenson as starter even though he eventually led the team in rushing and totaled 10 touchdowns. As explosive as advertised — he cleared 5.0 yards per carry as the Patriots’ “lightning back,” and finished top 10 in rush yards over expected — Henderson was nevertheless disfavored by the playoffs, where Stevenson was the runaway “1A” option. It was still an ultimately promising rookie season, but Stevenson remains under contract for 2026, and there’s little reason to expect the Pats to abandon their two-back approach following a Super Bowl run. Henderson offers plenty of offseason upside as an RB2 option, but would need something to happen to Stevenson to make a run at RB1 status.

Stevenson qualified as a rare bright spot as one of only two Pats to find the end zone in a 29-13 defeat. Given a new backfield running mate in No. 38 overall back TreVeyon Henderson, Stevenson finished the year as the Pats’ second leading rusher. That, of course, doesn’t tell the full story, as Stevenson survived an early season deluge of fumbles to end up the most trusted back for the stretch run, including the playoffs, where he out-touched Henderson 68-35. Curious, but the Pats’ sharp coaching staff preferred Stevenson’s tough running to Hendo’s home run ability, while the veteran was a (far) superior pass blocker. Stunningly, Stevenson actually led the league in average rush yards over expected. Turning 28 later this month, Stevenson has one season left of guaranteed money. He’s guaranteed to remain a thorn in the side of Henderson partisans, but it stands to reason Hendo will get a longer 2026 runway than he did as a rookie. Stevenson is best treated as a lower-ceiling RB3 in offseason best ball drafts.

There’s not much to see here, folks. Henderson handled just three of the Patriots’ 28 backfield carries in Sunday’s win, with his longest tote going for four yards. The rookie has had single-digit carries in two of the Patriots’ three playoff games this postseason and is averaging just 2.4 YPC on those carries. It’s possible he sees more work in the Super Bowl, but his usage will be hard to predict given his limited touches and lack of efficiency.

Facing a stout defense and snowy conditions, the Patriots leaned heavily on Stevenson all afternoon. The fifth-year vet did what he could, but outside of a 12-yard run in the fourth quarter, the Broncos kept Stevenson bottled up on the day. Stevenson’s 25 carries led the Patriots’ backfield by a wide margin, as rookie TreVeyon Henderson was limited to just three carries on the day, and did not see a target. Stevenson should again be leaned on heavily in a few weeks with the Patriots one game away from another Super Bowl title, and will hopefully face better conditions in San Francisco.

Henderson is practicing fully this week, so his availability for the Patriots’ AFC Championship Game against the Broncos’ top-tier defense is not in jeopardy. He will continue sharing the backfield workload with veteran RB Rhamondre Stevenson, who is playing very well at the moment.

It was a disappointing performance, especially in light of what seemed to be a significant Rhamondre Stevenson eye injury. Stevenson did return to close out the game, out-touching Henderson 20-13 and out-gaining him 81-23. The Pats’ backfield duo has a rough AFC Championship Game matchup in the Broncos’ elite run defense. In theory, that could lead to OC Josh McDaniels looking to get Henderson more involved on the perimeter/out in space than he has been of late. It is nevertheless safe to assume Stevenson will remain the 1A ball-carrier as the Pats look to get back to the Super Bowl for the first time since the Tom Brady era.