DENVER — This feels like it could be a coronation. The Nuggets clearly have been the better team this series, Nikola Jokić has been the best player on the floor (if not in the world), and the Heat are struggling to find answers.
Then there is the math. Only one team in NBA history came from 3-1 down in the NBA Finals to win the series, and that team had LeBron James at his peak and a series of breaks going their way.
Miami’s task may be harder, starting with the fact Denver doesn’t shoot itself in the foot. Of course, these gritty Heat love just this kind of challenge.
"[We} Love playing in these kind of environments where the crowd is going to be great tomorrow,” Heat coach Erik Spoelstra said. “Everybody is counting us out. We’re used to that. But ultimately it has to be decided between those four lines. The crowd is not going to decide it. The narratives are not going to decide it. Whatever the analytics are about 3-1, that ain’t going to decide it. It’s going to be decided between those four lines, whose game can get to whose game and ultimately win at the end. That’s what our guys love. So we’re looking forward to it.”
At this point in the series, there are few secrets. This is about game plan discipline and execution. Denver has been better at that in the last two games.
Here are two factors worth watching, plus some betting advice from Vaughn Dalzell of NBC Sports Edge.
1) Can the Nuggets stay focused, play their game under pressure?
In Los Angeles before Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals — when the Nuggets were up 3-0 — they were not a team acting like they had games in their pocket. They could have dropped Game 4 and closed the series out in Game 5 at home, nobody would have blinked.
That’s not what happened. The Nuggets were business-like in closing out the Lakers. It was similar in the round before when they blew the doors off the Suns in Game 6.
Sunday, the day before the biggest game in franchise history, the Nuggets gave off that same focused-but-loose vibe.
“My biggest concern going into any close-out game is human nature and fighting against that,” Nuggets coach Michael Malone said. “You’re up 3-1. Most teams, when you’re up 3-1, they come up for air. They relax and they just kind of take it for granted that, oh, we’re going to win this…
“That’s why my message to our team before we came down to the media and open practice was our approach has to be we are down 3-1. They are desperate; we have to be more desperate. They are hungry; we have to be hungrier. There is no celebrating after Game 4. We have another game that we have to win, and the close-out game is always the hardest game ever.”
Other Nuggets players from Jamal Murray through Kentavious Caldwell-Pope echoed that same “play like we are down 3-1" mantra. Which is something fresh in their minds, in the bubble the Nuggets were down 3-1 to the Clippers and came back to beat them. They know it’s not impossible.
Put simply: Denver is the better, deeper team. The Nuggets’ biggest threat is themselves and coming out comfortable because these Heat will not roll over.
2) Can the Heat knock down 3s at an insane rate again?
For all the talk about adjustments, about Xs and Os — how the Heat defend the Jokic/Murray pick and roll, Miami’s zone, or even the need for a Jimmy Butler game — this NBA Finals has come down to this truth:
The only way Miami can keep pace with the Denver offense is to hit 45+ percent of its 3-pointers.
The Heat did that in their Game 2 win, but the Nuggets have adjusted and stayed home on shooters the last two games. The result? Miami shot 30.2% from 3 in those two games, both Denver wins on the road.
“It seems like they’ve prioritized that, just maybe helping a little bit less on drives and staying home a little bit more,” Duncan Robinson said. “So it’s an adjustment. It’s something that we’re used to and we feel like we can still generate good 3-point looks. It’s just going to be a matter of running good, crisp offense with pace, full court and half court, and then just playing to our strengths.”
“We need to do a better job, just overall, with our offense, some of the details and how we can shift their defense,” Spoelstra said. “They definitely made an adjustment to try to stay at home on three-point shooters. It’s not the first time we have faced that. I think that’s a great compliment to them and how important they are to our offense.
“We just have to do it better. There’s certain things that I thought we did great in Game 3, and then there’s different things we did great in Game 4. We just need to put it all together.”
Miami has stepped up all playoffs long when their backs are against the wall. They are fully capable of a blisteringly-hot 3-point shooting night — Gabe Vincent, Max Strus, Robinson must step up — even on contested looks. They need a lot more of that to have a chance to send this series back to Miami.
3) Vaughn Dalzell’s betting recommendations
Moneyline/against the spread: Teams like Denver that are up 3-1 in the NBA Finals are 10-5 on the money line and 9-6 ATS at home since 2013. Home Teams up 3-1 in the Finals have also led at halftime in nine out of the past 15 Game 5’s, so target Denver in the first half if the full-game spread is too large for you. While Miami is 3-3 in elimination games since 2019, the odds are certainly in the Nuggets’ favor to win the NBA Finals at home.
Over/Under: The total has dropped once again, starting at 219.5 for Game 1 and sitting at 208.5 for Game 5. Three of the four NBA Finals games between Miami and Denver have finished at 203 or fewer points and these two teams combined for 205.6 points per game in the Finals. The Under is the best bet yet again as Denver’s held Miami to 42.4% from the field in this series, plus the Heat have scored 104 or fewer points or less in seven out of the last eight playoff games.
(Check out more from Dalzell and the team at NBC Sports Edge.)
