Sunday’s Jaguars-Broncos game is a big one. Maybe the NFL’s biggest game this Sunday. The Broncos are 12-2, the best record in the NFL. The Jaguars are 10-4 and in first place in the AFC South. Both teams have plenty to play for as they fight for playoff position.
But the game hasn’t been scheduled like a big game.
Instead of airing on prime time or in the marquee Sunday afternoon window, Jaguars-Broncos airs as a regional broadcast on Fox at 4:05 p.m. ET on Sunday. It won’t be available on the Fox affiliates in most markets. Most of America won’t be able to watch.
That the NFL didn’t schedule Jaguars-Broncos for a broadcast window that could generate a big audience suggests that, despite the success of the teams on the field this season, the league doesn’t think the average fan is excited about a game matching up these two teams. Sunday afternoon games like Bills-Browns on CBS early, Steelers-Lions on CBS late and Chargers-Cowboys on Fox early are primed to get bigger audiences despite featuring teams with lesser records than the Jaguars and Broncos.
As we pointed out when the schedule was released in May, it’s clear from the way the NFL schedules the Jaguars that even in Year 5 of the Trevor Lawrence era, he has not caught on as the start he was supposed to be entering the league, and the Jaguars have not caught on as a team the average fan wants to see. The Broncos have a bigger fan base, but Bo Nix also has not yet developed into a big national star.
Even lesser NFL games generate TV audiences that every other sports league could only dream of. But it says something about the tastes of the average fan that the 10-4 Jaguars against the 12-2 Broncos is perceived as a lesser game by the viewing public.
Don’t look now, but here comes Josh Allen.
The 2024 NFL MVP, after another impressive performance against the Patriots on Sunday, is making a late push in the betting odds for the league’s top regular-season award.
The Bills quarterback has moved to +525, third in the stack behind Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford (-300) and Patriots quarterback Drake Maye (+425).
With three games left, more changes could be coming. And the betting odds are relevant because they operate as, essentially, a poll of those who are sufficiently invested to wager their money on it.
They’re even more relevant because, ultimately, the award isn’t decided by objective on-field facts. The 50 voters will cast ballots that determine the outcome. The Associated Press, which won’t list the names of the 50 voters until after the awards are announced, collects the votes in the days after the regular season ends.
The picture will become more clear once the final playoff trees are set. The quarterbacks of the teams that earn the AFC and NFC byes will get a boost. Which could help Broncos quarterback Bo Nix (currently +7500), who is playing better and better as the season reaches a crescendo.
Allen won the award last year without the Bills securing the top seed in the AFC. It came down to him and quarterback Lamar Jackson of the Ravens, who also didn’t secure the No. 1 seed.
If the Bills can pick off the Patriots in the AFC East, that could vault Allen past Maye. Whether it’s enough to catch Stafford may hinge on whether the Rams close out the season as the NFC’s No. 1 seed.
That’s not a given. The Rams are 11-3 and the Seahawks are 11-3. They play Thursday night. If the Rams finish behind the Seahawks in the NFC West, will that take the steam out of Stafford’s case?
For now, the point is this. Arguably the best player in the NFL, Allen is making a push for his second straight MVP.
Two teams have clinched spots in the playoffs and that number could start going up on Thursday night.
If the Seahawks beat the Rams at home, they will join the Rams in the NFC bracket. They would also take over first place in the NFC West and the top spot in the conference with two games left to play.
The Seahawks will also get into the dance if the Lions lose to the Steelers on Sunday. A Lions loss would also punch the ticket for the winner of Saturday’s game between the Packers and Bears in Chicago and it would give the 49ers a spot regardless of how they fare against the Colts on Monday night. Both the Packers and Bears will get in if they tie and the Lions lose.
The 49ers won’t need any help from the Lions if they beat the Colts.
The Eagles will clinch the NFC East with a win over the Commanders on Saturday or a Cowboys loss to the Chargers on Sunday.
The Broncos are the only other team with the ability to wrap up a division title this weekend. They’ve already clinched a playoff spot and will take the AFC West if they beat the Jaguars while the Chargers lose. Getting those results as well as a Bills loss and a Patriots loss will make the Broncos the No. 1 seed in the AFC.
The Patriots will clinch a playoff spot with a win over the Ravens. They also get in with a Colts loss to the 49ers or a Texans loss to the Raiders.
The Bills, Chargers, and Jaguars can all book their spots in the postseason by winning and getting a loss by either of those AFC South teams. The Bills will be in Cleveland on Sunday.
They can’t all be winners, can they?
As the NFL continues to make Christmas a pro football holiday, the trend has potential pitfalls. Including the very real possibility that the games to be played on December 25 will have little if any meaning to either or both of the teams involved.
Recent developments have made this season’s three-pack of games something far less enticing than gold, frankincense, and myrrh.
It will get started in nine days with Cowboys at Commanders. Both teams are more cooked than overdone roast beast.
Then comes Lions-Vikings. Detroit is scrambling to avoid missing the playoffs, which gives the game a little pop. The Vikings — who have won two in a row and are 6-8 — were eliminated on Sunday, when the Bears beat the Browns.
The day ends with the Broncos at the Chiefs. With the Chiefs eliminated. And with Gardner Minshew playing quarterback for the home team. Why would folks in Kansas City want to venture out on Christmas night to watch that one?
For in-home viewers who root for other teams, there’s a certain schadenfreude factor that will prompt those who had developed Chiefs fatigue to tune in and relish what should be a long night for the franchise that had appeared in three straight Super Bowls and five of the last six. Still, it will hardly be must-see streaming for Prime Video.
One factor is the calendar. With Labor Day landing on September 1 this year, the season started as early as it ever does. Which puts Christmas in Week 17. Which makes it harder to effectively predict in May the games that will matter in late December.
For that reason, don’t be surprised if the NFL eventually builds flexibility into the Christmas games, like it does for the late-season Saturday when five games are flagged as candidates for the three standalone spots.
Few teams are eliminated and thus irrelevant by Thanksgiving. More teams are and will be out of it by the time Christmas rolls around. If the NFL wants to maximize the audience for those games, it will have to either hit the bull’s-eye in May, or it needs to have the ability to move the dart.
The Broncos will be without safety Brandon Jones for the rest of the regular season.
Jones landed on injured reserve on Monday because of a pectoral injury he suffered in Sunday’s win over the Packers. Jones will miss the final three regular season games and the Broncos’ first playoff game before he will be eligible to return to action.
Jones started 13 of the team’s 14 games and he has 78 tackles, a half-sack, an interception and a fumble recovery.
P.J. Locke replaced Jones on Sunday and is set to move into the starting lineup in his absence. He has only played 46 defensive snaps this season.
The Broncos claimed running back Cody Schrader off of waivers to fill the open spot on their roster.
